通往2007年超級碗之路---Baltimore Ravens季後賽展望

Omni

兄弟在幾天前用英文寫了一個簡短的“Baltimore Ravens季後賽展望”，由於對是否能順利拿下首輪輪空沒有十分把握，決定還是等辭舊迎新之際再貼出來。今天下午Ravens兵不血刃地戰勝了Bills實在是給我的最佳新年禮物！今年的Ravens和6年前的隊伍一樣以經驗豐富的老兵為主，他們非常需要多一周的休息時間。本常規賽季Ravens連續兩次在長休息之後如猛虎下山，在Super Dome痛扁狀態甚佳的Saints，又在連續10年每逢12月份主場不敗的Kansas把Chiefs打得灰頭土臉。

也該着今年的Colts倒霉，他們的run defense就像是國內的“豆腐渣工程”，完全應驗了我在《美式橄欖球與統計學》一文中提到的那道練習題 --- run defense可能是NFL中影響勝負結果的最重要因素。雖然ztyixia兄也曾提到“美洲豹(Jaguars)和笨狗(Bengals)對付小馬(Colts)都是用跑，效果大異。因為兩隊的特點不同，按統計照搬就不靈。”，但有一點是肯定的，Colts要碰上Ravens, Chargers, 或Patriots這樣跑陣極強的一流球隊只能落得越南前外長---“卵擊石”般的結局，呵呵。說句實話，我連Colts是否能在主場擊敗由Larry Johnson領銜的Chiefs都沒有相當的把握，但考慮到今年的Chiefs只是一支二流球隊，也出於不願讓Ravens碰Patriots的私心，姑且預測Colts能夠進入季後賽第二輪。這正應了一句老話，出來混嘛總是要還的。已從Baltimore“叛逃”22年之久的Colts終於要回到這座城市接受"人民的審判", 估計這場比賽到時難免會被美國的電視媒體大肆炒作。和ztyixia兄所說的情況類比，Chiefs好像是Bengals，而Ravens就像是一雙比Jaguars大兩到三號的皮鞋---Jaguars主帥是當年Ravens主帥Brian Billick手下防守主教練Marvin Lewis（現Bengals主帥）手下的Linebackers' Coach。

Brian Billick對手下的幫助是非常無微不至的，他如今已是“桃李滿天下” ，至少會有四名防守助理教練成為現任NFL球隊主帥：

Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals, 2003-present)
Mike Nolan (San Francisco 49ers, 2005-present)
Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville Jaguars, 2002-present)
Rex Ryan (very likely become an NFL head coach, son of the famous Buddy Ryan)

另外現任Detriot Lions防守主教練的Donnie Henderson也很有發展前途，當初Billick為了幫他去Jets面試，替他準備了100多張Powerpoint幻燈片。Billick對電腦的使用在現任NFL教練中肯定是首屈一指的。

下面的預測只局限於AFC。NFC中的6支球隊差距不大，其季後賽過程將會凸顯Heisenberg的"不確定性原理“，呵呵。今年AFC中的球隊明顯強於NFC，其”基本粒子“的尺度要比NFC大幾個數量級，於是AFC季後賽將更近似於經典動力學過程, 其不確定性要小很多.:-) NFC的頭兩號種子都未必consistent，但他們的平均實力明顯在其他4支球隊之上。我更希望Bears勝出,因為Saints已是Ravens手下敗將，球迷總是希望2007年的超級碗多一些懸念。

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2006 AFC Playoff Outlook

I would rather take the second seed than the first seed in AFC because it's better for the Ravens to face the soft Colts than the tough Patriots in the Divisional Playoff, here is my rough outlook based on the "maximum-likelihood estimate" of the AFC playoff picture as of 12/28/2006 (with Broncos being No.5 and Jets being No.6):

(1) Wildcard Round (Jan. 6-7, 2007)

No.3 Colts might beat No.6 Chiefs at home, Peyton Manning's arm might compensate Colts' lack of run defense to some extent;

No.4 Patriots will have no problem beating No.5 Jets at home.

(2) Divisional Round (Jan. 13-14, 2007)

No.1 Chargers might survive the challenge from No.4 Patriots in a close game, but their odds ratio is merely about 55:45 because Bill Belichick is much smarter than Marty Schottenheimer. The Chargers have much more talents than this year's Patriots
who have lost many key players such as Willie McGinest, David Givens, Deion
Branch and Adam Vinateri;

No.2 Ravens should dominate No.3 Colts in Baltimore, the city will be thrilled to have this playoff matchup against a team "defected" from us in 1984 . At the end of this game, Peyton Manning might be so roughed up by Baltimore pass rushers that he won't know which end is up. Jamal Lewis might be able to achieve more than 150 yards in rushing. I feel bad for Tony Dungy because he is such a nice guy and excellent coach, but he has to switch to an NFC team in order to even play in a Super Bowl.

(3) AFC Championship Round (Jan.21, 2007)

No.2 Ravens will beat No.1 Chargers on the road in a fashion not unlike the January 2001 Ravens-Raiders game at the Oakland "Black Hole". Ravens defense will force third-year QB Rivers to make many costly mistakes because this is the only 2006 NFL defense on the planet that can slow down MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Ravens offense led by Steve McNair is also the best in team history, it might be ranked between No.12 and No.15 by the end of the season. A team with No.1 defense plus No.15 offense is almost impossible to beat in the playoff.