通往2007年超级碗之路---Baltimore Ravens季后赛展望

Omni

兄弟在几天前用英文写了一个简短的“Baltimore Ravens季后赛展望”，由于对是否能顺利拿下首轮轮空没有十分把握，决定还是等辞旧迎新之际再贴出来。今天下午Ravens兵不血刃地战胜了Bills实在是给我的最佳新年礼物！今年的Ravens和6年前的队伍一样以经验丰富的老兵为主，他们非常需要多一周的休息时间。本常规赛季Ravens连续两次在长休息之后如猛虎下山，在Super Dome痛扁状态甚佳的Saints，又在连续10年每逢12月份主场不败的Kansas把Chiefs打得灰头土脸。

也该着今年的Colts倒霉，他们的run defense就像是国内的“豆腐渣工程”，完全应验了我在《美式橄榄球与统计学》一文中提到的那道练习题 --- run defense可能是NFL中影响胜负结果的最重要因素。虽然ztyixia兄也曾提到“美洲豹(Jaguars)和笨狗(Bengals)对付小马(Colts)都是用跑，效果大异。因为两队的特点不同，按统计照搬就不灵。”，但有一点是肯定的，Colts要碰上Ravens, Chargers, 或Patriots这样跑阵极强的一流球队只能落得越南前外长---“卵击石”般的结局，呵呵。说句实话，我连Colts是否能在主场击败由Larry Johnson领衔的Chiefs都没有相当的把握，但考虑到今年的Chiefs只是一支二流球队，也出于不愿让Ravens碰Patriots的私心，姑且预测Colts能够进入季后赛第二轮。这正应了一句老话，出来混嘛总是要还的。已从Baltimore“叛逃”22年之久的Colts终于要回到这座城市接受"人民的审判", 估计这场比赛到时难免会被美国的电视媒体大肆炒作。和ztyixia兄所说的情况类比，Chiefs好像是Bengals，而Ravens就像是一双比Jaguars大两到三号的皮鞋---Jaguars主帅是当年Ravens主帅Brian Billick手下防守主教练Marvin Lewis（现Bengals主帅）手下的Linebackers' Coach。

Brian Billick对手下的帮助是非常无微不至的，他如今已是“桃李满天下” ，至少会有四名防守助理教练成为现任NFL球队主帅：

Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals, 2003-present)
Mike Nolan (San Francisco 49ers, 2005-present)
Jack Del Rio (Jacksonville Jaguars, 2002-present)
Rex Ryan (very likely become an NFL head coach, son of the famous Buddy Ryan)

另外现任Detriot Lions防守主教练的Donnie Henderson也很有发展前途，当初Billick为了帮他去Jets面试，替他准备了100多张Powerpoint幻灯片。Billick对电脑的使用在现任NFL教练中肯定是首屈一指的。

下面的预测只局限于AFC。NFC中的6支球队差距不大，其季后赛过程将会凸显Heisenberg的"不确定性原理“，呵呵。今年AFC中的球队明显强于NFC，其”基本粒子“的尺度要比NFC大几个数量级，于是AFC季后赛将更近似于经典动力学过程, 其不确定性要小很多.:-) NFC的头两号种子都未必consistent，但他们的平均实力明显在其他4支球队之上。我更希望Bears胜出,因为Saints已是Ravens手下败将，球迷总是希望2007年的超级碗多一些悬念。

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2006 AFC Playoff Outlook

I would rather take the second seed than the first seed in AFC because it's better for the Ravens to face the soft Colts than the tough Patriots in the Divisional Playoff, here is my rough outlook based on the "maximum-likelihood estimate" of the AFC playoff picture as of 12/28/2006 (with Broncos being No.5 and Jets being No.6):

(1) Wildcard Round (Jan. 6-7, 2007)

No.3 Colts might beat No.6 Chiefs at home, Peyton Manning's arm might compensate Colts' lack of run defense to some extent;

No.4 Patriots will have no problem beating No.5 Jets at home.

(2) Divisional Round (Jan. 13-14, 2007)

No.1 Chargers might survive the challenge from No.4 Patriots in a close game, but their odds ratio is merely about 55:45 because Bill Belichick is much smarter than Marty Schottenheimer. The Chargers have much more talents than this year's Patriots
who have lost many key players such as Willie McGinest, David Givens, Deion
Branch and Adam Vinateri;

No.2 Ravens should dominate No.3 Colts in Baltimore, the city will be thrilled to have this playoff matchup against a team "defected" from us in 1984 . At the end of this game, Peyton Manning might be so roughed up by Baltimore pass rushers that he won't know which end is up. Jamal Lewis might be able to achieve more than 150 yards in rushing. I feel bad for Tony Dungy because he is such a nice guy and excellent coach, but he has to switch to an NFC team in order to even play in a Super Bowl.

(3) AFC Championship Round (Jan.21, 2007)

No.2 Ravens will beat No.1 Chargers on the road in a fashion not unlike the January 2001 Ravens-Raiders game at the Oakland "Black Hole". Ravens defense will force third-year QB Rivers to make many costly mistakes because this is the only 2006 NFL defense on the planet that can slow down MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Ravens offense led by Steve McNair is also the best in team history, it might be ranked between No.12 and No.15 by the end of the season. A team with No.1 defense plus No.15 offense is almost impossible to beat in the playoff.