Want to know how fast your dollar can lose its buying power? Here’s an easy way to find out, using the mathematical principle known as the Rule of 72.
美股评论:你的钱贬值有多快 | |||
送交者: Pascal 2015年05月20日14:02:40 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话 | |||
美股评论:你的钱贬值有多快 导读:MarketWatch 首席经济学家凯尔纳(IRWIN KELLNER)撰文介绍了关于通货膨胀和货币购买力贬值的一些基本常识,解释了政府往往不喜欢高通(69.74, 0.94, 1.37%)胀的理由。 以下即凯尔纳的文章全文: 想知道你手中的美元正在以怎样的速度损失其购买力吗?我们有一个非常简单的方法,即使用所谓“72法则”来计算。
大致说来,我们就是用72来做分子,用通货膨胀率来做分母,进行一个除法运算。比如说,通货膨胀率是2%,那么72除以2,得出的结果就是36。这就意味着,如果通货膨胀一直保持2%的水平,那么36年之后,你手中货币的价值就会缩水一半。
All you have to do is take the number 72 and divide it by the rate of inflation. For example, if the rate of inflation is 2%, divide 72 by 2 and you get 36. This is the number of years it will take to cut your money’s value in half if inflation runs an average of 2% a year. 同理,如果通货膨胀率达到4%,那么你手中的2美元变成实质上的1美元,时间也会缩短一半,即18年。 再同理,如果通货膨胀率为6%,那么你只要12年时间,就不得不和自己的一半财富说再见了。
Scoot the average inflation rate up to 4%, and you will find that it takes 18 years to slice the value of your dollars in two. And if the rate of inflation were to average 6%, you can say goodbye to half your dollars’ buying power in only 12 years. 那么,我们可以,或者说我们应该忍受的通货膨胀率该是多少呢?如果你是一位工作者,或者欠着别人的钱,那么你最高可以忍受6%的通货膨胀。工人们往往都可以得到足够的生活水平提升速度,来抵消物价上涨造成的影响。当然更不必说,他们还可以用贬值了的货币去还债。 另外一方面,如果你是一位退休者或者是债权人,那么合适你的通货膨胀率最高不该超过2%。换言之,你会希望自己的钱尽可能保持其原有的购买力。 事实上,和你有类似看法的人着实不少。比如,联储这样的政策制定者们一般也都喜欢2%的通货膨胀率。这样通胀水平足够低,低到多数人根本不会去注意,而同时它又足够高,高到能够遏制通货紧缩的威胁,对此我下面还会更详细地讨论。 议会大致也会青睐2%的通货膨胀目标——除非这会导致失业率过高。不过,一些保守派政治家们或许会要求通货膨胀率尽可能低,哪怕付出高失业的代价。在下一次大选当中,对于这些理念的交锋,我们一定会再度领教的。 2%的通货膨胀率已经可以足够确保你把钱交给银行,而不必担什么风险。与此同时,一些观察家相信,联储其实更喜欢比2%高一点的通货膨胀率,因为这可以让他们有更多宽松的空间,而这样的看法只能说明他们对货币政策的真正运作不甚了解。 正如我之前曾经不止一次在专栏当中写到的,其实相对于刺激经济而言,货币政策还是更擅长于给经济降温。在这方面,最著名的比喻是,你可以拉绳子,但不能推绳子。如果经济需要宽松,真正好用的工具应该是财政政策。我们可以诉诸减税和增加政府支出,这样就可以造就必要的宽松,而相反的做法,结果自然也是南辕北辙。 目前,无论美国还是国外的政策制定者们似乎都相信2%是最理想的通货膨胀率。考虑到当前美国的通货膨胀率不足这一水平,这就给了人们一个相信联储不会迅速加息的理由——如果联储过早加息,就可能会遏制通货膨胀,进而使得通货紧缩成为现实的威胁。 可是,大家或许是忘记了,所谓通货紧缩,实质上就是价格下跌而美元升值。换言之,在经历了那么多年的通货膨胀之后,或许价格的下跌也不见得就那么可怕。
In case you forgot, under deflation prices fall and the dollar actually gains in value. That said, after all the years we’ve experienced inflation, maybe falling prices might not be so bad after all.
Opinion: How fast is your dollar deflating?Debtors may prefer higher inflation, but the government usually doesn’t Bloomberg Want to know how fast your dollar can lose its buying power? Here’s an easy way to find out, using the mathematical principle known as the Rule of 72. All you have to do is take the number 72 and divide it by the rate of inflation. For example, if the rate of inflation is 2%, divide 72 by 2 and you get 36. This is the number of years it will take to cut your money’s value in half if inflation runs an average of 2% a year. Scoot the average inflation rate up to 4%, and you will find that it takes 18 years to slice the value of your dollars in two. And if the rate of inflation were to average 6%, you can say goodbye to half your dollars’ buying power in only 12 years. How much inflation can (or should) you tolerate? If you are a working stiff, or you owe money, you should be able to get by with 6% inflation. Workers will likely garner enough cost-of-living raises to compensate for the upward march in prices. Debtors, of course, will be paying back their loans with cheaper dollars. On the other hand, if you’re a retiree, a saver or a creditor, you would opt for 2% inflation or less. In other words, you would want your money to retain as much of its purchasing power as possible. You would be in good company. Policy makers at the Federal Reserve generally prefer an inflation rate of 2% because it’s low enough so that people don’t pay much attention to it, yet high enough to keep deflation at bay, as I will elaborate below. Congress would probably agree with a 2% inflation target — unless it results in too high an unemployment rate. However, some conservative pols would like to achieve the lowest inflation rate possible, even at the cost of higher unemployment. Both sides will see how these themes work out during the next elections. Two-percent inflation is about as low as you can go without risking throwing the economy into reverse. On the other hand, some pundits believe that the Fed actually prefers more than 2% inflation because it gives them room to ease. This displays a lack of knowledge about how policy really works. As I have observed in previous columns, monetary policy is better at restraint than it is at stimulus. The best analogy is that you can pull on a string but you can’t push on it. If the economy needs ease, fiscal policy is the tool you would use. It’s easier to cut taxes and to raise spending, which is what constitutes fiscal ease, than the reverse. Right now, policy makers both here and abroad seem to think that the ideal inflation rate is 2%. Since the current rate of inflation here in the U.S. is less than this figure, it stands to reason that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon. To do so would risk slowing inflation to the point where deflation becomes a real possibility. In case you forgot, under deflation prices fall and the dollar actually gains in value. That said, after all the years we’ve experienced inflation, maybe falling prices might not be so bad after all. 六種方式計算1774至2014 241年之間 美元相對等值 http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/index.php 所以,一律按消費者物價指數CPI計, 發生于1858年电影《被解救的姜戈》中支付的 US$12,000等于2014年的US$356,000 ! US$300 = US$8,900; 馬歇爾計劃 / 歐洲復興計劃,美國為此投入的援助合計 1958年,28歲青年巴菲特同志購入棲居至今的豪宅 所支付的31,500美元, 等于2014年的258,000美元; 2014年《曉松奇談》中高曉松提到1913年 首批福特轿车的銷售價格260美元, 等于2014年的6,410美元。 知道这些有什么意义呢?随便就拿100,000美元 举例吧: 根据下面这个网站自动计算的结果得知: 1964年10万美元的购买力等于2014年的763,000美元的购买力;反过来看,2014年10万美元能买到的东西,1964年的13,100美元就可以买到。 根据过去50年的通货膨胀率,以此机械式类推,假设2015年你银行账户里的10万美元闲置不动,就购买力而言,2025年将贬值为 72,000 - 79,800 美元;2045年将贬值为43,900美元;2065年为13,100美元 北美五种最愚蠢的投资理财方式2013-4-20 00:15|温哥华乐活网 Lahoo.ca |来自: 华尔街日报 乐活按语:自己的钱该怎么打理才最明智,对此你一定心知肚明。但是你知道最糟糕的做法是什么吗?哪些是你应该避免的呢?
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