會被計算機替代嗎？

A widening probe of the foreign-exchange market is roiling an industry already under pressure to reduce costs as computer platforms displace human traders.

目前在國內一家外匯券商做交易員。所以只能說說國內的一天是怎厶過的。早上到公司打開cnn，cnbc，彭博社，newworld這幾個電視頻道，對都是直播的純英文，當然信息來源不可能是等電視直播出來，那�@黃花菜都�@了，看電視是防止突發事件（一些消息是通常渠道獲得不了的，比如瑞央11年宣布維持1.2時候電視報道比網站出消息快了十分鐘）。

然後看看盤面（基本上路上家裡也一直在看就是一種習慣）看看當日數�朴袥]有變化。然後按系統做交易，大部分公司是要求日內的。哦還有公司的紅茶很好喝，咖啡，泡芙，小蛋糕都是免費的，我和同事看老闆不在時候會在辦公室喝紅酒吃雞翅，諸如此類。有波動時候就是各自做單。互相參考是沒有的都是成熟交易員，各有各的東西。交易做到一定層次就會知道，只有一個人沉靜下來才能做好！如果市場波動不大，也會晚上k歌什厶的，總之不是想象中那厶呆板。應要求發張照片吧，其實其他回答中已經發過的。

本來想發喝酒時候照片　奈找不到了這張�@合看吧，有個直觀了解就行。

另外對於程序化替代人工 這點是不用�@心的，我們是傳統交易，你可以選擇開發程序也可以堅持手動這點沒有壓力，看個人及公司想法。我是支持開發程序化的，我的ea持續開發中，想程序化不是很簡單的事，個人系統首先要轉化為清晰的邏輯不然it很難實現這是一大難點。然後即使實現後，後期的維護監管升級更加需要你的參與，因為別人很難比你更了解。所以完全不用�@心程序化取代人的問題。當然高頻量化交易就另說了。

編輯於 2015-03-20

我覺得有點難，機器再鬼也鬼

不過人類，而且�普f現在有專門

針對給自動交易挖坑的自動交易

系統。

從sellside國際投行外匯交易員的角度∶以下是北京時間

5點45 - 起床，看隔夜新聞

6點15 - 到公司，電腦一般前一晚都沒關，解鎖檢查各種交易系統，接過紐約辦公室的order，繼續看隔夜新聞，交易記錄等

7點10 - 晨會，sales交流客戶的活動和trader交換信息交換view，research分享最新研究報告

7點45 - 早餐

8點- 默認的交易開市（雖然外匯市場24小時都開�@，不過一般這個點才開始活躍，也分國家，像澳洲新西蘭由於時差原因會有較早的波動）

8 - 11 基本上交易客戶的order，控制風險敞口和自己的倉位等等，沒什厶事的時候繼續讀看新聞分析等

11點30 - 午飯時間，午飯邊吃邊盯盤，交易order隨時發生

2點（冬天是1點）- 倫敦上班，外匯市場一天最活躍的時段開始 （倫敦是最大的外匯交易中心)

3點左右倫敦接過所有order，一般這時候亞洲的trader已經可以閒下來了，看看倫敦開盤，繼續管理自己倉位。

5點多- 寫end of day note，準備閃人

每個月有個周五美國公布就業數�疲�交易員會去喝一杯吃個飯回來看數�乒�布結果。

計算機∶

現在很多以前手動的工作都是計算機完成了，包括客戶的order很多不大的我們都扔給電腦算法來管，自己盯�@大的order可以省很多心。計算機最終會取代一部分交易員，一些產品例如外匯即期最終會像股票那�@用計算機來交易，但是交易員的市場直覺，盤感之類的計算機是替代不了的。一般交易算法只是單純執行指令，對�@風險，賺差價。但是好的交易員是讓他的風險敞口在交易中偏向有利於自己的位置從而抓住更大一波動作，這方面的交易也有計算機模型可能做到，但是很多在buyside，sellside很少見。

還有一些衍生品的產品，例如期權，電子化暫時還沒有很滲入這裡面，雖然已經看到很多方面的趨勢，但是主體還是以voice trade，voice broker為主體。一些衍生品風險，現階段的計算機技術還比較難控制。

大概先說這厶多吧

發布於 2015-06-19

很多量化對�@基金已經不用人手下單了，早在2006年，整個外匯市場的交易量中有四分之一是有電腦完成的。

引用Algorithmic trading∶

Foreign exchange markets also have active algorithmic trading (about 25% of orders in 2006).

八年過去了，不管是軟件還是硬件都有質的飛躍，這個比例肯定比25%高。若找到最新的數�莆視�立馬補上。

不止是外匯，其他asset class市場的交易都在逐漸被電腦取代。如2009的美國股市，60%-73%交易量來自電腦。

至於FX trader的daily work是怎�@的，還是留給FX trader回答吧。我就不胡言亂語了 ;)

編輯於 2014-02-19

FX trader也是分sell side和buy side。buy side情�@我不太清楚，但應該基本上都是用model去交易。sell side的交易員的工作主要是為市場提供報價，管理自己的風險敞口並及時對�@風險，當然也會根�谱约簩κ袌龇较虻呐袛嗄靡欢ǖ娘L險敞口來獲取利潤，但總體上來講期限應該會較短。

sell side這邊很多trader也確實被電子化的交易平台所取代，這些電子化的平台會通過算法自動去為買賣交易匹配，因此取代了trader的報價工作，但目前真正大金額的交易習慣上還是會通過人工的詢價去完成，以獲得一個相對較好的報價。如今G10貨幣可能70%以上的流量都是通過電子平台完成的了，新興市場貨幣可能占比要低一點。大銀行的外匯交易員數量確實在不斷變少，一方面是電子平台的發展，另一方面是金融監管的加�@，但完全被計算機取代是不可能的。

發布於 2014-03-01

作為一個主觀日內交易員，除了每天提前了解當天要發生的重大事件的具體時間之外，剩下的就要盯緊自己的風控管理系統，在自己的交易框架下控制好每一張單。。。。。。。

發布於 2014-04-16

外匯交易員的工作內容是由公司所在的部門職能�@定的。交易的目的可以是套期保值，可以是投機，可以是對�@。論是什厶目的的交易，都可以由電腦代替。目前外匯交易員依然有手動，半手動，全自動等不同的類型。只要有明確的交易目的的交易，都可以嘗試用程序化去作為交易解�@方案。各走各路，手動交易的模式應該在一定的階段不會消失，應該說只要有人類存在，就不會完全消失手動交易。市場上的競爭，會是人腦，機腦，夾雜�@各種目的和思維的交易行為共同形成價格體系

發布於 2014-02-20

李文豪，操盤手，有3年外匯操盤經歷，資深德州撲┅

櫻桃丸子 贊同

這個問題，看什厶類型的交易員了，是個人交易員？小機腹交易員？大型機腹裡面的底層交易員？大型對�@基金裡面的頂級交易員？

好的智能交易系統需要很高的數學能力，小型機腹或個人，沒有那個資本去開發一個優秀的ea，所以沒有所謂的替代風險，因為沒有入場券...

大型機腹最頂級的交易員肯定是沒有這個風險的，因為即使編寫EA他們也會直接參與開發，但是大型機腹的底層交易員，就很有可能被取代掉，他們只是提供體力勞動，真正的�@策都是上面的人來做，所以EA可以完美的替換掉這些人，節省很多成本。

發布於 2014-02-2

真正外匯交易員一般很難碰到。必須是一個國際化的人和一個隱士。那些炒外匯和交易商里的都不能叫交易員，照一定的策略去執行某一段的任務，唔...，也不能叫交易員。Trader有不同層次，最高層次應該是全盤負責，有某種思想哲學，設計指揮策略，讓不同model去布倉執行，然後找了好多人從不同側面去研究市場反應，最終達到基金成長目的的人。還有一種，也是自己對負責，一個人做很多事情，能自由運作資金，使自己的想法能實踐的人。
外匯市場維度高，機械式的自動系統　法代替人。

編輯於 2016-01-19

得李便不饒人，筆名為李姓盛唐的三流交易員

機器注重線性，人類偏邏輯和感性，你相信索羅斯那套還是人的思維絕對頂層方向

發布於 2016-02-06

Thompson，外匯交易員+軍事專家

外匯交易員工作怎�@？還得看他們處在的各個層次以及任務環境來�@定的。優秀的自營外匯交易員相對來說會比較自由。

工作一般就是按照自己的有效穩定的盈利模式來在外匯市場中進行交易、買賣各種貨幣。這個模式包括很多，時間與期限、目的也各不同。其核心主要的是人工的交易系統和人工加設計的計算機智能化交易系統來作出交易判斷和選擇是否執行。

關於交易系統的東西，在這裡就不多說了。這相當於一種軍事戰術或者武術的一種套路差不多，各人有各人的修煉和進化。

關於外匯交易員會被計算機代替嗎？我想從另一個角度來說一下。未來預計各種機腹交易員的群體會精益求精，縮�@很多的，目前華�@街那些機腹也很早就這�@了。

現在的互聯網計算機技術很發達了，打個比方∶一個銀行如果有一個外匯交易團隊可能就�@了，這個團隊只要根�菩星椤⒏鞣N情報分析做出很好的策略和交易程序以及監控風險就行了，其它的什厶買賣執行程序就是由計算機智能化或者人工命令化去執行了。當然這個交易團隊是個頂個的精英團體。那也就是說，打個比方未來整個中國銀行的那厶多工作人員中，外匯交易員只需要20個可能就�@了，這20個人員所組成的團體通過互聯網計算機技術就足以應付整個中國銀行的外匯交易，那就不必要再擴展外匯交易人員的編制了。這就有點像銀行ATM存取款機取代眾多儲蓄窗口的事了。

在10集紀錄片《華�@街》中的第一集 ‘金錢　眠’ 中簡單的描述過計算機程序怎�@取代交易員的事，在電影《奪命手機》中也展示了計算機程序根�聘鞣N可能性的事情發生是怎�@邏輯推算和成功預測未來的高超能力，就像蝴蝶效應一般。

反應到市場上，我們也是在不斷的追求這種成功的預測推算能力，就是想預測市場在未來各個時間段的各種可能性的趨勢和應對法則，以及怎�@才能從中得利。這個就是一個系統性的東西。各國首腦的智囊們、比如奧巴馬的幕僚們、國家安全顧問乾妹妹賴斯，他們也都是這�@運行的，大多機腹外匯交易員團體也不例外，不過在交易市場中�@能充分運用計算機的技術優勢來應對市場的瞬息之變。這可能就是機腹要的外匯交易員會越來越少的原因了，他們只要最優秀的幾個人便好了，其他一律能用計算機代替。關於未來人類能有更�@的預測運行模式，那得看我們人類怎厶進化和發展了。畢竟千金難買早知道。比如要是出現了時間機器，那還不直接顛覆這個市場，又或者未來全球統一了，貨幣市場可能就要做到外星球了。想想，祝大家春節快樂，猴年馬月發大財。

編輯於 2016-02-07

雪原，外匯

我是用自己設計的EA自動交易，但是穩定性不好。
取代不大可能，個人意見。

"People In The Market For Many, Many

Years Have Been Replaced By An

Algorithm"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02 / 08 / 2016  21:52 -0500

Two years ago, just before Michael Lewis released Flash Boys starting a sharp if brief revulsion against parasitic, predatory High Frequency Trading frontrunners, which delayed Virtu's IPO by one year, we broke down Virtu's 2013 net trading income by product line. We were not surprised to find that of the $45 million in total growth, the largest income category, US stocks growth was a tiny 5% of all, rising by $2.3 million in 2013. In fact, between EMEA, APAC and US Equities, there was very limited growth in 2013, while commodities posted an outright trading income decline. It appeared to be the case that growth in conventional products has indeed plateaued, as more and more HFT competitors rush in. And yet, one product stood out. It is highlighted on the chart below: FX ( foreign exchanges ).

This is how we summarized this observations almost exactly two years ago:

With increasingly more homo sapiens-type banker FX traders being laid off left and right for pervasive and ubiquitous manipulation of currencies (who can forget the infamous "Cartel" chat room, JPM's head of spot trading presiding), what this means is that more and more algos will rush into this product to fill the voids left by carbon-based traders.

Two years later, Bloomberg caught up to the fate of what it calls Wall Street's "dying breed", the once proud FX traders who over the past two years have become an endangered species between losing their jobs to Virtu's algos, and to countless FX rigging scandals which revealed that the world's biggest market was nothing but one grand conspiracy in which a handful of banks schemed illegally in so-called chat rooms.

First the numbers: there were 2,300 people working in currency-market front-office jobs at the world’s biggest banks in 2014, a 23 percent drop from four years earlier, according to Coalition Development Ltd., an analytics firm.

Bloomberg also discovers Virtu: "Humans are up against formidable

opponents across the industry. Take Virtu Financial Inc. Deploying

sophisticated technology in the business, the company’s computers can

trade more than 11,000 securities and other products on more than 225

trading platforms in 35 countries. Because automation is so deeply

ingrained in its business, it had only about 150 employees last year --

generating more than $5 million per worker."

And here are some of the people behind the numbers:

Charlie Stenger, a currency-broker-turned-recruiter, has seen it all. One fired trader wept in his office. Another admitted he hadn’t told his wife he was unemployed, and left the house every day in a suit to sneak off to a coffee shop. Then there are the delusional guys, who carefully explain how they’re not interested in jobs that don’t pay as well as those they just lost.

Stenger, who was laid off from ICAP Plc in 2013 and now works for Sheffield Haworth Ltd., tells the men and women he counsels: Take the pay cut. Oh, and don’t wait for the phone to ring.

“This is crunch time -- it’s not looking good,” Stenger said. “This is a shrinking pond.”

It is, and not just for the people: the size of the overall FX market itself is collapsing.

The death of the FX market has not been greatly exaggerated: the layoffs have continued and are unlikely to stop in the $5.3 trillion-a-day market. Revenue from from foreign-exchange divisions hasn’t bounced back after falling to $6.5 billion in 2014, down almost 45 percent from 2009, Coalition data show. Currency trading in the U.K. and North America shrank by more than 20 percent in October from a year earlier, according to central banks in those regions. London is the biggest center for foreign-exchange trading.

For some being replaced by an algo was not how they had envisioned the conclusion to their Wall Street careers:

“The business has to be downsized,” said Keith Underwood, a foreign-exchange consultant who ended a 25-year trading career, including at Lloyds Banking Group Plc, in 2014. But it’s not easy “for people who have been in a market for many, many years to see that they’ve been replaced by an algorithm.”

Others who have not been fired yet, and are just counting the days to that closed doors conference room meeting:

Some ex-traders have moved to smaller houses or pulled kids out of private school. Those waiting for the ax to fall hoard paychecks. Stenger was out of regular work for a year after he lost his job; he was told about the lay-off four days after he learned his wife was pregnant with their first child. “There were periods where I wouldn’t make money for 90 days at a time,” he said, “and the insurance bill was still due every month, and the rent and the car payments.”

For many, however, the feeling of escaping Wall Street's clutches is an unexpected one: liberation.

Underwood, the consultant, said he left the market because regulators were cracking down on his niche by implementing stricter derivatives rules after the financial crisis. “My style of trading went out of vogue,” he said. So the former head of foreign exchange trading for the Americas at Lloyds, who also led teams at Credit Agricole SA and Lehman Brothers in London and New York, reinvented himself.

“I couldn’t be more happy,” said Underwood, who described the hourly rates he charges as comparable to those of a senior lawyer. “There is more empowerment, with control of my future.”

Many traders have discovered they have transferable skills. Some have landed work as salespeople or executives at financial technology companies, payment providers or trading platforms and exchanges. Others are using their knowledge to bolster banks’ risk-management operations. Franz Gutwenger, a recruiter in New York, said one of his financial-institution clients has expanded its regulatory-compliance staffing by a factor of five.

“I don’t think there’s a whole lot from my generation that are still in the industry,” said Guy Piserchia, who during a three-decade career led North-American foreign-exchange trading at Bank of America Corp. and Paribas, a precursor to BNP Paribas SA, in Asia. He left Wall Street in 2012 to become mayor of the 8,700-person township of Long Hill, New Jersey. Now he’s deputy mayor, but said he wants to get back into the business in a role that combines his financial and government experience.

What happens next:

“With automation and electronic dealing, I think there are going to be fewer people” on foreign-exchange desks, Piserchia said. “The ones that have evolved and survived may be some of the better ones -- or, as in life, may be some of the lucky ones.”

As the realization that there is a life away from finance, more will leave the confines of Wall Street for ever. Who will remain: just the central bankers who pretend the market is the economy, and pretend there is such as thing as a "market" in the first place, and the algos which however without humans to frontrun, will soon be extinct soon as well.

Mon, 02/08/2016 - 22:31 | 7159404Stainless Steel Rat

Stainless Steel Rat's picture

It is hard for a person trying to invest $200 million to make 5% a year, but it is cake for someone investing $100,000 to make 5% a week thanks to these robots.

Mon, 02/08/2016 - 23:29 | 7159561carneades_jazz_hands

Exactly!  Though, I think the sweet spot is still a bit higher than $100,000.  The point remains, trading still works.

I started out a couple decades ago doing FX & FX Options Arb for one of the named banks we've all read about.  That was seriously big & easy money for those firms.  In fact, I've been surprised by how easily they have all let this go, unless.... it's because they're the "investors" behind these "legalized" front running parasites.

What these guys are taking is just a piece, and as the article mentions, it's becoming the most fought over slice.  It's probably 15% of the toal pie these days.  Dealers, (the good ones), never just took out the bid-offer.  They also took out the day's volatility, we "position traded", and we "portfolio invested".

Whatever....Risk hasn't gone anywhere, it's only grown....and the rewards remain wonderful...for the traders.  PM me if you're young and need some assistance.

Traders gotta trade.

...just remember.... Don't Drink and Trade  ;)  :)

Tue, 02/09/2016 - 01:19 | 7159799Stainless Steel Rat

A human can look at a signal pattern in the market and easily determine: "this is a negative feedback signal based upon a commonly agreed upon stable point", or "this is a positive feedback loop based on two competing views (agendas?) of the value of the item."  A human can surmise: "why is this the stable value?" or "what are the two competing agendas?".  What I see now in the market is: "The oil producing countries now realize that war is the only option they have to reassert the value of their product."  A computer could have a thousand Nvidia Titan Zs and not see this.

Tue, 02/09/2016 - 06:17 | 7160038OldPhart

2010 I tried anything to get my 401-k money OUT of the fucking system.  It turns out to be virtually impossible,  So I rolled it into the money market, guaranteed rate.  I have lost my ass on interest earnings, but I've still got my principal and interest compounded,  I'm not guru, my 401-k only has $54k in it (stopped ALL contributions in 2008), but it continues to earn and, according to the plan document, I am "not at risk of loss"

Here's what gets me.  Way back in the 70's I was a debit Insurance Salesman...weekly premium, door to door..our disability product paid $40 a week for fucking forever.  Just pay your dime every week.

Life Insurance had residual value based on a guaranteed minimum 4%, imagine trying to sell that kind of nonsense in the early 80's with 21% inflation.  I used to look at these old policies, sold in the 20's and 30's, as ridiculous.  'Bad Lily' Austin, would collect her nieghbors premiums from out in the Florida woods and laugh at me (I'm 22/23 she's late 80's) about what goes around comes around.  ('Bad Lily" was a sweet old black lady, both of her parents were slaves.  I spent many lunches in her kitchen listening to her and her husband talk about thier lives.  [I'm a California desert kid dumped in the woods of North Florida. To them I was exotic and weird, to me they were fascinating.]  In a living tribute to Bad Lily I had a sign made for her as an Independent Life (Independent Life Insurance Company, apparenty defunct these days) collection point for her house.  She was thrilled.

I don't know how to tell you how harsh things were.  Lily lived in a shotgun house.  That's a long narrow house where the walls are made of plank boards, the rooms are divided by a central wall, with doors in the middle...and you could literally shoot a shotgun down the center of the house without any damage.  (In another shotgun house I witnessed an old man die of cancer while collecting his premium from his wife, he was lying on the bed, moaning, then sat straight up and said "Yes, Lord, I'm ready."  Then died.  Four miles later, a face full of puddles and I reported it to the county sheriff [one of the reason's I became one of the county's all volunteer EMT's on the ambulance, we didn't have paid pro's at the time. And I wound up doing some really shitty stuff that haunts me still.)  In Lily's case, she'd lived there so long that the grass and other Florida shit grew into all the omniprescient cracks and crevasses that her house actually stayed warm.  Her Franklin stove was on all the time and when I usually arrived, about 1 PM, she'd have cooked a mess of black eyed peas, collard greens, hog jowls and hushpuppies.  As a white kid from California, one time tasting that shit made me an addict (as long as it wasn't boiled okra, holy shit!!).

Back in those woods I met one of the founders of the NAACP who sat me down and told me the first hand story of Rosewood in her mobile home's parlor (plastic lined).  Vera Bostick!!  God damn, I remember her name!!  I'm a young, dumb, fucking white guy, but Vera treats me like I'm a nephew or cousin.  I'm a member of her family.  Her husband, don't remember his first name, other than he was this fire and damnation preacher...who suddenly opened up his own bar.  Which promptly burned down after I sold him fire insurance.

All that said, I think, this time, we're going to be sadly lacking in people of character like Bad Lily Austin or Vera Bostick.  These were older women with personal authority.  If shit was going down they could walk out on the street and EVERYTHING would become "Yes, Ma'am?"

We need a lot more of these types of ladies, black, white, asian, mexican...we need a LOT more of these women.