会被计算机替代吗？
A widening probe of the foreign-exchange market is roiling an industry already under pressure to reduce costs as computer platforms displace human traders.
目前在国内一家外汇券商做交易员。所以只能说说国内的一天是怎厶过的。早上到公司打开cnn，cnbc，彭博社，newworld这几个电视频道，对都是直播的纯英文，当然信息来源不可能是等电视直播出来，那黄花菜都了，看电视是防止突发事件（一些消息是通常渠道获得不了的，比如瑞央11年宣布维持1.2时候电视报道比网站出消息快了十分钟）。
然后看看盘面（基本上路上家里也一直在看就是一种习惯）看看当日数有没有变化。然后按系统做交易，大部分公司是要求日内的。哦还有公司的红茶很好喝，咖啡，泡芙，小蛋糕都是免费的，我和同事看老板不在时候会在办公室喝红酒吃鸡翅，诸如此类。有波动时候就是各自做单。互相参考是没有的都是成熟交易员，各有各的东西。交易做到一定层次就会知道，只有一个人沉静下来才能做好！如果市场波动不大，也会晚上k歌什厶的，总之不是想象中那厶呆板。应要求发张照片吧，其实其他回答中已经发过的。
本来想发喝酒时候照片 奈找不到了这张合看吧，有个直观了解就行。
另外对于程序化替代人工 这点是不用心的，我们是传统交易，你可以选择开发程序也可以坚持手动这点没有压力，看个人及公司想法。我是支持开发程序化的，我的ea持续开发中，想程序化不是很简单的事，个人系统首先要转化为清晰的逻辑不然it很难实现这是一大难点。然后即使实现后，后期的维护监管升级更加需要你的参与，因为别人很难比你更了解。所以完全不用心程序化取代人的问题。当然高频量化交易就另说了。
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编辑于 2015-03-20
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我觉得有点难，机器再鬼也鬼
不过人类，而且说现在有专门
针对给自动交易挖坑的自动交易
系统。
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从sellside国际投行外汇交易员的角度∶以下是北京时间
5点45 - 起床，看隔夜新闻
6点15 - 到公司，电脑一般前一晚都没关，解锁检查各种交易系统，接过纽约办公室的order，继续看隔夜新闻，交易记录等
7点10 - 晨会，sales交流客户的活动和trader交换信息交换view，research分享最新研究报告
7点45 - 早餐
8点- 默认的交易开市（虽然外汇市场24小时都开，不过一般这个点才开始活跃，也分国家，像澳洲新西兰由于时差原因会有较早的波动）
8 - 11 基本上交易客户的order，控制风险敞口和自己的仓位等等，没什厶事的时候继续读看新闻分析等
11点30 - 午饭时间，午饭边吃边盯盘，交易order随时发生
2点（冬天是1点）- 伦敦上班，外汇市场一天最活跃的时段开始 （伦敦是最大的外汇交易中心)
3点左右伦敦接过所有order，一般这时候亚洲的trader已经可以闲下来了，看看伦敦开盘，继续管理自己仓位。
5点多- 写end of day note，准备闪人
每个月有个周五美国公布就业数，交易员会去喝一杯吃个饭回来看数公布结果。
计算机∶
现在很多以前手动的工作都是计算机完成了，包括客户的order很多不大的我们都扔给电脑算法来管，自己盯大的order可以省很多心。计算机最终会取代一部分交易员，一些产品例如外汇即期最终会像股票那用计算机来交易，但是交易员的市场直觉，盘感之类的计算机是替代不了的。一般交易算法只是单纯执行指令，对风险，赚差价。但是好的交易员是让他的风险敞口在交易中偏向有利于自己的位置从而抓住更大一波动作，这方面的交易也有计算机模型可能做到，但是很多在buyside，sellside很少见。
还有一些衍生品的产品，例如期权，电子化暂时还没有很渗入这里面，虽然已经看到很多方面的趋势，但是主体还是以voice trade，voice broker为主体。一些衍生品风险，现阶段的计算机技术还比较难控制。
大概先说这厶多吧
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发布于 2015-06-19
很多量化对基金已经不用人手下单了，早在2006年，整个外汇市场的交易量中有四分之一是有电脑完成的。
引用Algorithmic trading∶
Foreign exchange markets also have active algorithmic trading (about 25% of orders in 2006).
八年过去了，不管是软件还是硬件都有质的飞跃，这个比例肯定比25%高。若找到最新的数我会立马补上。
不止是外汇，其他asset class市场的交易都在逐渐被电脑取代。如2009的美国股市，60%-73%交易量来自电脑。
至于FX trader的daily work是怎的，还是留给FX trader回答吧。我就不胡言乱语了 ;)
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编辑于 2014-02-19
FX trader也是分sell side和buy side。buy side情我不太清楚，但应该基本上都是用model去交易。sell side的交易员的工作主要是为市场提供报价，管理自己的风险敞口并及时对风险，当然也会根自己对市场方向的判断拿一定的风险敞口来获取利润，但总体上来讲期限应该会较短。
sell side这边很多trader也确实被电子化的交易平台所取代，这些电子化的平台会通过算法自动去为买卖交易匹配，因此取代了trader的报价工作，但目前真正大金额的交易习惯上还是会通过人工的询价去完成，以获得一个相对较好的报价。如今G10货币可能70%以上的流量都是通过电子平台完成的了，新兴市场货币可能占比要低一点。大银行的外汇交易员数量确实在不断变少，一方面是电子平台的发展，另一方面是金融监管的加，但完全被计算机取代是不可能的。
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发布于 2014-03-01
作为一个主观日内交易员，除了每天提前了解当天要发生的重大事件的具体时间之外，剩下的就要盯紧自己的风控管理系统，在自己的交易框架下控制好每一张单。。。。。。。
发布于 2014-04-16 ![]()
外汇交易员的工作内容是由公司所在的部门职能定的。交易的目的可以是套期保值，可以是投机，可以是对。论是什厶目的的交易，都可以由电脑代替。目前外汇交易员依然有手动，半手动，全自动等不同的类型。只要有明确的交易目的的交易，都可以尝试用程序化去作为交易解方案。各走各路，手动交易的模式应该在一定的阶段不会消失，应该说只要有人类存在，就不会完全消失手动交易。市场上的竞争，会是人脑，机脑，夹杂各种目的和思维的交易行为共同形成价格体系
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发布于 2014-02-20 ![]()
李文豪，操盘手，有3年外汇操盘经历，资深德州扑┅
樱桃丸子 赞同
这个问题，看什厶类型的交易员了，是个人交易员？小机腹交易员？大型机腹里面的底层交易员？大型对基金里面的顶级交易员？
好的智能交易系统需要很高的数学能力，小型机腹或个人，没有那个资本去开发一个优秀的ea，所以没有所谓的替代风险，因为没有入场券...
大型机腹最顶级的交易员肯定是没有这个风险的，因为即使编写EA他们也会直接参与开发，但是大型机腹的底层交易员，就很有可能被取代掉，他们只是提供体力劳动，真正的策都是上面的人来做，所以EA可以完美的替换掉这些人，节省很多成本。
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发布于 2014-02-2
真正外汇交易员一般很难碰到。必须是一个国际化的人和一个隐士。那些炒外汇和交易商里的都不能叫交易员，照一定的策略去执行某一段的任务，唔...，也不能叫交易员。Trader有不同层次，最高层次应该是全盘负责，有某种思想哲学，设计指挥策略，让不同model去布仓执行，然后找了好多人从不同侧面去研究市场反应，最终达到基金成长目的的人。还有一种，也是自己对负责，一个人做很多事情，能自由运作资金，使自己的想法能实践的人。
外汇市场维度高，机械式的自动系统 法代替人。
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编辑于 2016-01-19
得李便不饶人，笔名为李姓盛唐的三流交易员
机器注重线性，人类偏逻辑和感性，你相信索罗斯那套还是人的思维绝对顶层方向
发布于 2016-02-06
Thompson，外汇交易员+军事专家
外汇交易员工作怎？还得看他们处在的各个层次以及任务环境来定的。优秀的自营外汇交易员相对来说会比较自由。
工作一般就是按照自己的有效稳定的盈利模式来在外汇市场中进行交易、买卖各种货币。这个模式包括很多，时间与期限、目的也各不同。其核心主要的是人工的交易系统和人工加设计的计算机智能化交易系统来作出交易判断和选择是否执行。
关于交易系统的东西，在这里就不多说了。这相当于一种军事战术或者武术的一种套路差不多，各人有各人的修炼和进化。
关于外汇交易员会被计算机代替吗？我想从另一个角度来说一下。未来预计各种机腹交易员的群体会精益求精，缩很多的，目前华街那些机腹也很早就这了。
现在的互联网计算机技术很发达了，打个比方∶一个银行如果有一个外汇交易团队可能就了，这个团队只要根行情、各种情报分析做出很好的策略和交易程序以及监控风险就行了，其它的什厶买卖执行程序就是由计算机智能化或者人工命令化去执行了。当然这个交易团队是个顶个的精英团体。那也就是说，打个比方未来整个中国银行的那厶多工作人员中，外汇交易员只需要20个可能就了，这20个人员所组成的团体通过互联网计算机技术就足以应付整个中国银行的外汇交易，那就不必要再扩展外汇交易人员的编制了。这就有点像银行ATM存取款机取代众多储蓄窗口的事了。
在10集纪录片《华街》中的第一集 ‘金钱 眠’ 中简单的描述过计算机程序怎取代交易员的事，在电影《夺命手机》中也展示了计算机程序根各种可能性的事情发生是怎逻辑推算和成功预测未来的高超能力，就像蝴蝶效应一般。
反应到市场上，我们也是在不断的追求这种成功的预测推算能力，就是想预测市场在未来各个时间段的各种可能性的趋势和应对法则，以及怎才能从中得利。这个就是一个系统性的东西。各国首脑的智囊们、比如奥巴马的幕僚们、国家安全顾问干妹妹赖斯，他们也都是这运行的，大多机腹外汇交易员团体也不例外，不过在交易市场中能充分运用计算机的技术优势来应对市场的瞬息之变。这可能就是机腹要的外汇交易员会越来越少的原因了，他们只要最优秀的几个人便好了，其他一律能用计算机代替。关于未来人类能有更的预测运行模式，那得看我们人类怎厶进化和发展了。毕竟千金难买早知道。比如要是出现了时间机器，那还不直接颠覆这个市场，又或者未来全球统一了，货币市场可能就要做到外星球了。想想，祝大家春节快乐，猴年马月发大财。
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编辑于 2016-02-07
雪原，外汇
我是用自己设计的EA自动交易，但是稳定性不好。
取代不大可能，个人意见。
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"People In The Market For Many, Many
Years Have Been Replaced By An
Algorithm"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02 / 08 / 2016 21:52 -0500
Two years ago, just before Michael Lewis released Flash Boys starting a sharp if brief revulsion against parasitic, predatory High Frequency Trading frontrunners, which delayed Virtu's IPO by one year, we broke down Virtu's 2013 net trading income by product line. We were not surprised to find that of the $45 million in total growth, the largest income category, US stocks growth was a tiny 5% of all, rising by $2.3 million in 2013. In fact, between EMEA, APAC and US Equities, there was very limited growth in 2013, while commodities posted an outright trading income decline. It appeared to be the case that growth in conventional products has indeed plateaued, as more and more HFT competitors rush in. And yet, one product stood out. It is highlighted on the chart below: FX ( foreign exchanges ).
This is how we summarized this observations almost exactly two years ago:
With increasingly more homo sapiens-type banker FX traders being laid off left and right for pervasive and ubiquitous manipulation of currencies (who can forget the infamous "Cartel" chat room, JPM's head of spot trading presiding), what this means is that more and more algos will rush into this product to fill the voids left by carbon-based traders.
Two years later, Bloomberg caught up to the fate of what it calls Wall Street's "dying breed", the once proud FX traders who over the past two years have become an endangered species between losing their jobs to Virtu's algos, and to countless FX rigging scandals which revealed that the world's biggest market was nothing but one grand conspiracy in which a handful of banks schemed illegally in so-called chat rooms.
First the numbers: there were 2,300 people working in currency-market front-office jobs at the world’s biggest banks in 2014, a 23 percent drop from four years earlier, according to Coalition Development Ltd., an analytics firm.
Bloomberg also discovers Virtu: "Humans are up against formidable
opponents across the industry. Take Virtu Financial Inc. Deploying
sophisticated technology in the business, the company’s computers can
trade more than 11,000 securities and other products on more than 225
trading platforms in 35 countries. Because automation is so deeply
ingrained in its business, it had only about 150 employees last year --
generating more than $5 million per worker."
And here are some of the people behind the numbers:
Charlie Stenger, a currency-broker-turned-recruiter, has seen it all. One fired trader wept in his office. Another admitted he hadn’t told his wife he was unemployed, and left the house every day in a suit to sneak off to a coffee shop. Then there are the delusional guys, who carefully explain how they’re not interested in jobs that don’t pay as well as those they just lost.
Stenger, who was laid off from ICAP Plc in 2013 and now works for Sheffield Haworth Ltd., tells the men and women he counsels: Take the pay cut. Oh, and don’t wait for the phone to ring.
“This is crunch time -- it’s not looking good,” Stenger said. “This is a shrinking pond.”
It is, and not just for the people: the size of the overall FX market itself is collapsing.
The death of the FX market has not been greatly exaggerated: the layoffs have continued and are unlikely to stop in the $5.3 trillion-a-day market. Revenue from from foreign-exchange divisions hasn’t bounced back after falling to $6.5 billion in 2014, down almost 45 percent from 2009, Coalition data show. Currency trading in the U.K. and North America shrank by more than 20 percent in October from a year earlier, according to central banks in those regions. London is the biggest center for foreign-exchange trading.
For some being replaced by an algo was not how they had envisioned the conclusion to their Wall Street careers:
“The business has to be downsized,” said Keith Underwood, a foreign-exchange consultant who ended a 25-year trading career, including at Lloyds Banking Group Plc, in 2014. But it’s not easy “for people who have been in a market for many, many years to see that they’ve been replaced by an algorithm.”
Others who have not been fired yet, and are just counting the days to that closed doors conference room meeting:
Some ex-traders have moved to smaller houses or pulled kids out of private school. Those waiting for the ax to fall hoard paychecks. Stenger was out of regular work for a year after he lost his job; he was told about the lay-off four days after he learned his wife was pregnant with their first child. “There were periods where I wouldn’t make money for 90 days at a time,” he said, “and the insurance bill was still due every month, and the rent and the car payments.”
For many, however, the feeling of escaping Wall Street's clutches is an unexpected one: liberation.
Underwood, the consultant, said he left the market because regulators were cracking down on his niche by implementing stricter derivatives rules after the financial crisis. “My style of trading went out of vogue,” he said. So the former head of foreign exchange trading for the Americas at Lloyds, who also led teams at Credit Agricole SA and Lehman Brothers in London and New York, reinvented himself.
“I couldn’t be more happy,” said Underwood, who described the hourly rates he charges as comparable to those of a senior lawyer. “There is more empowerment, with control of my future.”
Many traders have discovered they have transferable skills. Some have landed work as salespeople or executives at financial technology companies, payment providers or trading platforms and exchanges. Others are using their knowledge to bolster banks’ risk-management operations. Franz Gutwenger, a recruiter in New York, said one of his financial-institution clients has expanded its regulatory-compliance staffing by a factor of five.
“I don’t think there’s a whole lot from my generation that are still in the industry,” said Guy Piserchia, who during a three-decade career led North-American foreign-exchange trading at Bank of America Corp. and Paribas, a precursor to BNP Paribas SA, in Asia. He left Wall Street in 2012 to become mayor of the 8,700-person township of Long Hill, New Jersey. Now he’s deputy mayor, but said he wants to get back into the business in a role that combines his financial and government experience.
What happens next:
“With automation and electronic dealing, I think there are going to be fewer people” on foreign-exchange desks, Piserchia said. “The ones that have evolved and survived may be some of the better ones -- or, as in life, may be some of the lucky ones.”
As the realization that there is a life away from finance, more will leave the confines of Wall Street for ever. Who will remain: just the central bankers who pretend the market is the economy, and pretend there is such as thing as a "market" in the first place, and the algos which however without humans to frontrun, will soon be extinct soon as well.
Mon, 02/08/2016 - 22:31 | 7159404Stainless Steel Rat
Stainless Steel Rat's picture
It is hard for a person trying to invest $200 million to make 5% a year, but it is cake for someone investing $100,000 to make 5% a week thanks to these robots.
Mon, 02/08/2016 - 23:29 | 7159561carneades_jazz_hands
Exactly! Though, I think the sweet spot is still a bit higher than $100,000. The point remains, trading still works.
I started out a couple decades ago doing FX & FX Options Arb for one of the named banks we've all read about. That was seriously big & easy money for those firms. In fact, I've been surprised by how easily they have all let this go, unless.... it's because they're the "investors" behind these "legalized" front running parasites.
What these guys are taking is just a piece, and as the article mentions, it's becoming the most fought over slice. It's probably 15% of the toal pie these days. Dealers, (the good ones), never just took out the bid-offer. They also took out the day's volatility, we "position traded", and we "portfolio invested".
Whatever....Risk hasn't gone anywhere, it's only grown....and the rewards remain wonderful...for the traders. PM me if you're young and need some assistance.
Traders gotta trade.
...just remember.... Don't Drink and Trade ;) :)
Tue, 02/09/2016 - 01:19 | 7159799Stainless Steel Rat
A human can look at a signal pattern in the market and easily determine: "this is a negative feedback signal based upon a commonly agreed upon stable point", or "this is a positive feedback loop based on two competing views (agendas?) of the value of the item." A human can surmise: "why is this the stable value?" or "what are the two competing agendas?". What I see now in the market is: "The oil producing countries now realize that war is the only option they have to reassert the value of their product." A computer could have a thousand Nvidia Titan Zs and not see this.
Tue, 02/09/2016 - 06:17 | 7160038OldPhart
2010 I tried anything to get my 401-k money OUT of the fucking system. It turns out to be virtually impossible, So I rolled it into the money market, guaranteed rate. I have lost my ass on interest earnings, but I've still got my principal and interest compounded, I'm not guru, my 401-k only has $54k in it (stopped ALL contributions in 2008), but it continues to earn and, according to the plan document, I am "not at risk of loss"
Here's what gets me. Way back in the 70's I was a debit Insurance Salesman...weekly premium, door to door..our disability product paid $40 a week for fucking forever. Just pay your dime every week.
Life Insurance had residual value based on a guaranteed minimum 4%, imagine trying to sell that kind of nonsense in the early 80's with 21% inflation. I used to look at these old policies, sold in the 20's and 30's, as ridiculous. 'Bad Lily' Austin, would collect her nieghbors premiums from out in the Florida woods and laugh at me (I'm 22/23 she's late 80's) about what goes around comes around. ('Bad Lily" was a sweet old black lady, both of her parents were slaves. I spent many lunches in her kitchen listening to her and her husband talk about thier lives. [I'm a California desert kid dumped in the woods of North Florida. To them I was exotic and weird, to me they were fascinating.] In a living tribute to Bad Lily I had a sign made for her as an Independent Life (Independent Life Insurance Company, apparenty defunct these days) collection point for her house. She was thrilled.
I don't know how to tell you how harsh things were. Lily lived in a shotgun house. That's a long narrow house where the walls are made of plank boards, the rooms are divided by a central wall, with doors in the middle...and you could literally shoot a shotgun down the center of the house without any damage. (In another shotgun house I witnessed an old man die of cancer while collecting his premium from his wife, he was lying on the bed, moaning, then sat straight up and said "Yes, Lord, I'm ready." Then died. Four miles later, a face full of puddles and I reported it to the county sheriff [one of the reason's I became one of the county's all volunteer EMT's on the ambulance, we didn't have paid pro's at the time. And I wound up doing some really shitty stuff that haunts me still.) In Lily's case, she'd lived there so long that the grass and other Florida shit grew into all the omniprescient cracks and crevasses that her house actually stayed warm. Her Franklin stove was on all the time and when I usually arrived, about 1 PM, she'd have cooked a mess of black eyed peas, collard greens, hog jowls and hushpuppies. As a white kid from California, one time tasting that shit made me an addict (as long as it wasn't boiled okra, holy shit!!).
Back in those woods I met one of the founders of the NAACP who sat me down and told me the first hand story of Rosewood in her mobile home's parlor (plastic lined). Vera Bostick!! God damn, I remember her name!! I'm a young, dumb, fucking white guy, but Vera treats me like I'm a nephew or cousin. I'm a member of her family. Her husband, don't remember his first name, other than he was this fire and damnation preacher...who suddenly opened up his own bar. Which promptly burned down after I sold him fire insurance.
All that said, I think, this time, we're going to be sadly lacking in people of character like Bad Lily Austin or Vera Bostick. These were older women with personal authority. If shit was going down they could walk out on the street and EVERYTHING would become "Yes, Ma'am?"
We need a lot more of these types of ladies, black, white, asian, mexican...we need a LOT more of these women.
