But if I don't risk a snall amount to feel the flow, I won't know when the long term starts. The long term certainly doesn't look bright right now with all the hedge fund money running out of the door.

There are forces from all directions putting pressures on the market, one the the forces being short sellers. Short sellers have been profitable recently. In a very abstract and macro view, I look at the market as an ocean surface with big waves. The sea floor sunk and the sea level is lower right now, eventually every wave will have to contribute. Just like you once said, no one(I mean waves, not individuals, there will always be lucky individuals) can skip.

I will report back to you. :-)