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万维读者网 > 股市财经 > 跟帖
But whatever it is, my point
送交者: 鲜卑贺葛氏 2008月12月19日16:00:17 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话
回  答: Wowww, it's much worse than鲜卑贺葛氏 于 2008-12-18 19:40:07
is that economists are debating whether US economy is heading towards deflation (or disinflation for that matter) or an explosion of inflation down the road, and we can see prices are dropping like a rock (ie. gas), yet the greenbacks are getting printed and poured into the market. So how are we to figure that out and handle it?

I personally agree with k19 and believe that the deflation/disinflation will continue for a while (a few months to a year or so) then when it's getting so bad, the government is going to dump more dollars into the economy, refueling the inflation.

If that were going to be true, we would be best playing the currency ETFs, where we just need to watch those major economies to bet on who'd be the least ugly. Say between USD and EURO. The reason being even when the two currencies are both falling, the differences between the two falling rates gives an opportunity for traders to play: either playing for a stronger one, or agaist a much weaker one. As currency exchange rates are directly related to their underlying economies, and it's much easier to understand the general status of an economy than a stock, it would be one way to gain some profit during this period of uncertain ecomonic upheavals. There are some currency ETFs that are 2X or 3X the underlying currencies, which we can use as a good leverage.

My thought is that just like k19 said, we could first buy ETF that is betting USD against EURO, and then hold for a few months until when the trend changes, buy ETF that is betting EURO against USD, meaning we are first betting when both US and European economies are falling, the USD would remain a little bit stronger than EURO; and until when US has poured enough (and maybe too much) liquidity into the market, we then bet on EURO against USD. Since US are in the only position to freely (almost) print $$$, European govs have no way to pump enough liquidity into their economies as fast as the US. They will experience the credit crunch much longer, I expect.

Just a thought, allbeit confusing.
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  Playing currencies is dangerou - k19 12/24/08 (175)
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