Want to know how fast your dollar can lose its buying power? Here’s an easy way to find out, using the mathematical principle known as the Rule of 72.
美股評論:你的錢貶值有多快 | |||
送交者: Pascal 2015年05月20日14:02:40 於 [股市財經] 發送悄悄話 | |||
美股評論:你的錢貶值有多快 導讀:MarketWatch 首席經濟學家凱爾納(IRWIN KELLNER)撰文介紹了關於通貨膨脹和貨幣購買力貶值的一些基本常識,解釋了政府往往不喜歡高通(69.74, 0.94, 1.37%)脹的理由。 以下即凱爾納的文章全文: 想知道你手中的美元正在以怎樣的速度損失其購買力嗎?我們有一個非常簡單的方法,即使用所謂“72法則”來計算。
大致說來,我們就是用72來做分子,用通貨膨脹率來做分母,進行一個除法運算。比如說,通貨膨脹率是2%,那麼72除以2,得出的結果就是36。這就意味着,如果通貨膨脹一直保持2%的水平,那麼36年之後,你手中貨幣的價值就會縮水一半。
All you have to do is take the number 72 and divide it by the rate of inflation. For example, if the rate of inflation is 2%, divide 72 by 2 and you get 36. This is the number of years it will take to cut your money’s value in half if inflation runs an average of 2% a year. 同理,如果通貨膨脹率達到4%,那麼你手中的2美元變成實質上的1美元,時間也會縮短一半,即18年。 再同理,如果通貨膨脹率為6%,那麼你只要12年時間,就不得不和自己的一半財富說再見了。
Scoot the average inflation rate up to 4%, and you will find that it takes 18 years to slice the value of your dollars in two. And if the rate of inflation were to average 6%, you can say goodbye to half your dollars’ buying power in only 12 years. 那麼,我們可以,或者說我們應該忍受的通貨膨脹率該是多少呢?如果你是一位工作者,或者欠着別人的錢,那麼你最高可以忍受6%的通貨膨脹。工人們往往都可以得到足夠的生活水平提升速度,來抵消物價上漲造成的影響。當然更不必說,他們還可以用貶值了的貨幣去還債。 另外一方面,如果你是一位退休者或者是債權人,那麼合適你的通貨膨脹率最高不該超過2%。換言之,你會希望自己的錢儘可能保持其原有的購買力。 事實上,和你有類似看法的人着實不少。比如,聯儲這樣的政策制定者們一般也都喜歡2%的通貨膨脹率。這樣通脹水平足夠低,低到多數人根本不會去注意,而同時它又足夠高,高到能夠遏制通貨緊縮的威脅,對此我下面還會更詳細地討論。 議會大致也會青睞2%的通貨膨脹目標——除非這會導致失業率過高。不過,一些保守派政治家們或許會要求通貨膨脹率儘可能低,哪怕付出高失業的代價。在下一次大選當中,對於這些理念的交鋒,我們一定會再度領教的。 2%的通貨膨脹率已經可以足夠確保你把錢交給銀行,而不必擔什麼風險。與此同時,一些觀察家相信,聯儲其實更喜歡比2%高一點的通貨膨脹率,因為這可以讓他們有更多寬鬆的空間,而這樣的看法只能說明他們對貨幣政策的真正運作不甚了解。 正如我之前曾經不止一次在專欄當中寫到的,其實相對於刺激經濟而言,貨幣政策還是更擅長於給經濟降溫。在這方面,最著名的比喻是,你可以拉繩子,但不能推繩子。如果經濟需要寬鬆,真正好用的工具應該是財政政策。我們可以訴諸減稅和增加政府支出,這樣就可以造就必要的寬鬆,而相反的做法,結果自然也是南轅北轍。 目前,無論美國還是國外的政策制定者們似乎都相信2%是最理想的通貨膨脹率。考慮到當前美國的通貨膨脹率不足這一水平,這就給了人們一個相信聯儲不會迅速加息的理由——如果聯儲過早加息,就可能會遏制通貨膨脹,進而使得通貨緊縮成為現實的威脅。 可是,大家或許是忘記了,所謂通貨緊縮,實質上就是價格下跌而美元升值。換言之,在經歷了那麼多年的通貨膨脹之後,或許價格的下跌也不見得就那麼可怕。
In case you forgot, under deflation prices fall and the dollar actually gains in value. That said, after all the years we’ve experienced inflation, maybe falling prices might not be so bad after all.
Opinion: How fast is your dollar deflating?Debtors may prefer higher inflation, but the government usually doesn’t Bloomberg Want to know how fast your dollar can lose its buying power? Here’s an easy way to find out, using the mathematical principle known as the Rule of 72. All you have to do is take the number 72 and divide it by the rate of inflation. For example, if the rate of inflation is 2%, divide 72 by 2 and you get 36. This is the number of years it will take to cut your money’s value in half if inflation runs an average of 2% a year. Scoot the average inflation rate up to 4%, and you will find that it takes 18 years to slice the value of your dollars in two. And if the rate of inflation were to average 6%, you can say goodbye to half your dollars’ buying power in only 12 years. How much inflation can (or should) you tolerate? If you are a working stiff, or you owe money, you should be able to get by with 6% inflation. Workers will likely garner enough cost-of-living raises to compensate for the upward march in prices. Debtors, of course, will be paying back their loans with cheaper dollars. On the other hand, if you’re a retiree, a saver or a creditor, you would opt for 2% inflation or less. In other words, you would want your money to retain as much of its purchasing power as possible. You would be in good company. Policy makers at the Federal Reserve generally prefer an inflation rate of 2% because it’s low enough so that people don’t pay much attention to it, yet high enough to keep deflation at bay, as I will elaborate below. Congress would probably agree with a 2% inflation target — unless it results in too high an unemployment rate. However, some conservative pols would like to achieve the lowest inflation rate possible, even at the cost of higher unemployment. Both sides will see how these themes work out during the next elections. Two-percent inflation is about as low as you can go without risking throwing the economy into reverse. On the other hand, some pundits believe that the Fed actually prefers more than 2% inflation because it gives them room to ease. This displays a lack of knowledge about how policy really works. As I have observed in previous columns, monetary policy is better at restraint than it is at stimulus. The best analogy is that you can pull on a string but you can’t push on it. If the economy needs ease, fiscal policy is the tool you would use. It’s easier to cut taxes and to raise spending, which is what constitutes fiscal ease, than the reverse. Right now, policy makers both here and abroad seem to think that the ideal inflation rate is 2%. Since the current rate of inflation here in the U.S. is less than this figure, it stands to reason that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon. To do so would risk slowing inflation to the point where deflation becomes a real possibility. In case you forgot, under deflation prices fall and the dollar actually gains in value. That said, after all the years we’ve experienced inflation, maybe falling prices might not be so bad after all. 六種方式計算1774至2014 241年之間 美元相對等值 http://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/index.php 所以,一律按消費者物價指數CPI計, 發生於1858年電影《被解救的姜戈》中支付的 US$12,000等於2014年的US$356,000 ! US$300 = US$8,900; 馬歇爾計劃 / 歐洲復興計劃,美國為此投入的援助合計 1958年,28歲青年巴菲特同志購入棲居至今的豪宅 所支付的31,500美元, 等於2014年的258,000美元; 2014年《曉松奇談》中高曉松提到1913年 首批福特轎車的銷售價格260美元, 等於2014年的6,410美元。 知道這些有什麼意義呢?隨便就拿100,000美元 舉例吧: 根據下面這個網站自動計算的結果得知: 1964年10萬美元的購買力等於2014年的763,000美元的購買力;反過來看,2014年10萬美元能買到的東西,1964年的13,100美元就可以買到。 根據過去50年的通貨膨脹率,以此機械式類推,假設2015年你銀行賬戶里的10萬美元閒置不動,就購買力而言,2025年將貶值為 72,000 - 79,800 美元;2045年將貶值為43,900美元;2065年為13,100美元 北美五種最愚蠢的投資理財方式2013-4-20 00:15|溫哥華樂活網 Lahoo.ca |來自: 華爾街日報 樂活按語:自己的錢該怎麼打理才最明智,對此你一定心知肚明。但是你知道最糟糕的做法是什麼嗎?哪些是你應該避免的呢?
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