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他94歲還在交易68年無虧損留下10條忠告
送交者: Pascal 2017年03月04日23:10:02 於 [股市財經] 發送悄悄話

         活到107歲  94歲還在交易  68年從無虧損 

                他給投資者10條忠告

                              來源:金融八卦女 2015年12月24日 11:12:47

摘要:他創建的“紐伯格-巴曼公司”管理的資金曾達2000億美元,作為美國共同基金之父,他在1929年初涉華爾街,是美國唯一一個同時在華爾街經歷了1929年大蕭條和1987年股市崩潰的投資家,不僅兩次都免遭損失,而且在大災中取得了驕人收益。

羅伊•羅斯查爾德·紐伯格Roy Rothschild Neuberger (July 21, 1903 – December 24, 2010) 一生經歷了20世紀的27次牛市和26次熊市,做職業投資者68年,沒有一年賠過錢,被稱為“世紀長壽炒股贏家”。

他創建的“紐伯格-巴曼公司”管理的資金曾達2000億美元,作為美國共同基金之父,他在1929年初涉華爾街,是美國唯一一個同時在華爾街經歷了1929年大蕭條和1987年股市崩潰的投資家,不僅兩次都免遭損失,而且在大災中取得了驕人收益。

紐伯格沒有讀過大學,也沒有上過商業學校,被業內人士稱為世紀長壽炒股贏家,他的成功不僅是擁有巨大的財富,還有長壽和美滿的家庭。

在他的自傳——《世紀炒股贏家:美國共同基金之父羅伊•紐伯格自傳》一書中,紐伯格總結了自己投資生涯的10大原則,值得細讀。

文:羅伊•紐伯格

摘自《世紀炒股贏家:美國共同基金之父羅伊•紐伯格自傳》

“當每個人都為了他們財富增長而快樂之時,我都會提早擔心股市的下跌。相反,每當股市大跌時,我反而變得非常樂觀,因為它已經將我們將要面臨的貶值都折現進去了。”


Roy R. Neuberger, in 1974, amid his collection at the Neuberger Museum of Art 

at the State University campus at Purchase, N.Y. Credit Michael Evans/The New 

York Times


President Bush presented Mr. Neuberger with a National Medal of Arts during a 

White House ceremony in 2007. Credit White House

羅伊•紐伯格的成功投資十原則

紐伯格從幾百件實際教訓中歸納了十條最重要的法則。

1、了解自己

在分析過各種紛亂交織的因素後,如果你能做出有利的決定,那麼,你就是那種適合入市的人。測試一下你的性情、脾氣:

你是否有投機心理?

對於風險你是否會感到不安?

你要百分之百地、誠實地回答你自己。你做判斷時應該是冷靜的、沉着的,沉着並不意味着遲鈍。有時一次行動是相當迅速的。沉着的意思是根據實際情況做出審慎的判斷。如果你事先準備工作做得好,當機立斷是不成問題的。

如果你覺得錯了,趕快退出來,股市不像房地產那樣需要很長時間辦理手續,才能改正。你是隨時可以從中逃出來的。

你需要有較多的精力,對數字快速反應的能力,更重要的是要有常識。

你應該對你做的事情有興趣。最初我對這個市場感興趣, 不是為了錢,而是因為我不想輸,我想贏。

投資者的成功是建立在已有的知識和經驗基礎上的。你最好在自己熟悉的領域進行專業投資,如果你對知之甚少,或者根本沒有對公司及細節進行分析,你最好還是離它遠點。

我沒有把錢放在海外投資上,因為我不了解海外市場,我幾乎沒有在國外證券市場上做過交易。我主要是在國內投資。我的國際性投資也是通過本國公司進行的。它們大部分是全球企業,像IBM,它利潤的一半來自海外。

在你真正成為一名投資者之前,你也應該檢查一下身體和精神是否合格。好的身體是你做出明智判斷的基礎,不要低估它。 

2、向成功的投資者學習

即使是成功的投資者,他們中的許多人也在本世紀末度過了一段艱難時期。我和他們中許多人交談過,其中只有一小部分人相信,1996年在股票一漲再漲的情況下,他們還能把握市場的形勢。

然而無論怎樣,他們的經驗教訓在任何時候,對我們都有所啟發。

那些成功的投資者都通向成功。

洛威普萊斯看重新興工業增長性,從而獲得成功;

本•格雷厄姆尊重基本價值規律;

沃倫•巴菲特則認真地研究他在哥倫比亞大學學習時,老師本•格雷厄姆教給他的經驗;

喬治•索羅斯把他的思想理論運用於國際金融領域;

吉米•羅傑斯發現了國防工業股票,並把自己的想法和分析告訴老闆索羅斯。

他們每個人都通過自己的方式取得了巨大的成功。 

3、“羊市”思維

你可以學習成功的投資者的經驗,但不要盲目追隨他們。因為你的個性,你的需要與別人不同。你可從成功和失敗中吸取經驗和教訓,從中選擇適合你本身、適合周圍環境的東西。

個人投資者對一支股票的影響,有時會讓它上下浮動10個百分點,但那只是一瞬間,一般是一天,不會超過一個星期。這種市場即非牛市也非熊市。 我稱這樣的市場為“羊市”。

有時羊群會遭到殺戮,有時會被剪掉一身羊毛。有時可以幸運地逃脫,保住羊毛。 “羊市”與時裝業有些類似。時裝大師設計新款時裝,二流設計師仿製它,千千萬成的人追趕它,所以裙子忽短忽長。

不要低估心理學在股票中的作用,買股票的比賣股票的還要緊張,反之亦然。除去經濟統計學和證券分析因素外,許多因素影響買賣雙方的判斷,一次頭痛這樣的小事就會造成一次錯誤的買賣。

在羊市中,人們會儘可能去想多數人會怎樣做。他們相信大多數人一定會排除困難找到一個有利的方案。這樣想是危險的,這樣做是會錯過機會的。設想大多數人是一機構群體,有時他們會互相牽累成為他們自己的犧牲品。 

4、堅持長線思維

注重短線投資容易忽略長線投資的重要性。企業經常投入大量資金,進行長線投資,當然同時會有短期效應,如果短期效果占主導作用,那將危害公司的發展和前景。

獲利應建立在長線投資、有效管理、抓住機遇的基礎上。如果安排好這些,短線投資就不會占主要地位。

當一支熱門股從小角度分析,它一個季度未完成任務,市場的恐慌就會使得股價下跌。

5、及時進退

什麼時機可以入市購買股票?什麼時候適合賣出股票、在場外觀望?

時機可能不能決定所有事情,但時機可以決定許多事情。本來可能是一個好的長線投資,但是如果在錯誤的時間買入,情況會很糟。有的時候,如果你適時購入一支高投機股票,你同樣可以賺錢。優秀的證券分析人可以不追隨市場大流而做得很好,但如果順潮流而動,操作起來就更簡單些。

一位投機者或投資者經常成功是因為,他會在市場疲軟時,投入大量資金買入,這樣可以用同樣的資金換得更多的股票。相反的,投資者會在強市中將股票高價賣出,賣出的股票雖然不多,卻能賺得很多錢。這條原則很簡單。

把握有利時機一部分是靠直覺,一部分卻正相反。時機的選定要靠自己的獨立思維。在經濟運行中,升勢可能在跌勢中產生,衰退會從高潮開始。

直覺的重要是什麼?偉大的經濟學家保羅•塞繆爾森認為,股市“在過去的三次大規模衰退中作過八次預告”,完全正確。所以,一時的直覺幾乎跟對證券的分析能力一樣重要。

時機是微妙的,又是很慎密的。如果在錯誤的時間(正處於升勢)做空頭,代價將是昂貴的。去問一問那些做理頓、電訊傳通、萊維茨家具、蒙摩雷克斯等股票空頭的人,做得沒錯但時機不對,拋得太快。我認識一個人,他在1929年夏天牛市最高點時,因為做空頭輸掉了一切,直到秋天才重新做起來。

牛市的時間一般比熊市長,牛市時,股價增長緩慢、不規則,可能比熊市更不規則。熊市則短促、劇烈動盪。但是市場終究是有一定規律的,股市很少連續超過6個月上升,也很少連續超過6個月下跌。

另外,有些投資者在看到虧損報告之後,只要有機會就立刻平倉出局,而不對眼前的形勢做任何評估。十有八九,這種情況下賣出的股票實質上是應該買入而非賣出的。

在這種形勢下,人們首先學到的應該是,市場不會理會個體行為。你購買證券所出的價格沒有什麼不可思的。人們在認識古怪的價格及價值重估理論時,是相當困難的,而且不只是業餘投資者認識不到這一點。許多投資顧問相信應該是公共事業股資上做長期投資。

但他們持有一支股票的時間過長了,我認為股票價格攀升至 一個偏高價位,不管它是為政府雇員、教師還是其他人設立的退休基金都應該賣掉它。

雖然股價還沒有到最高點,但如果你獲利了,還是退出為好。

伯納德•巴魯克是能最好把握時機的投資者,他的哲學是,只求做好但不貪婪。他從不等最高點和最低點。他在弱市中買,在強市中賣。他提倡早賣。我們的公司很榮幸,他晚年的時候,他成為我們的客戶。

在有的時期,普通股票是最好的投資,但是在另一時期,也許房地產業是最好的。任何事情都在變,人們也要學會變。我完全不信會存在一個永久不變的產業。

6、認真分析公司狀況

必須認真研究公司的管理狀況、領導層、公司業績以及公司目標,尤其需要認真分析公司真實的資產狀況,包括:設備價值及每股淨資產。這個概念在世紀初曾被廣泛重視,但這之後幾乎被遺忘了。

公司的分紅派息也十分重要,需要加以考慮。如果它的分配方案是適當的,它的股價可以更上一個台階。如果公司分出90%的利潤,注意,這是一個危險的信號,下一次就不會分了;如果公司只分出 10%的利潤,這也是一個警報,一般公司的分配方案是分出40%~60%的利潤。許多公共事業的股票的分紅比率還會更大些。

許多投資機構並不真的重視分紅,但個人投資者卻把分紅作為擴大收入的一種重要方法。

什麼是成長性股票?它的聰明的追隨者在公司發展初期就發現了它潛在的價值。但一般情況下,公司是在成熟後,其品牌才會被認知的。成長是緩慢的,個人和機構依然購買它的股票是因為人們的預測比較切合實際。

人們對假定的增長花費了太多的精力。而這就是不考慮經濟的衰退、戰爭的爆發、政府對成長指數的重新評估及成長指數自身的變化。

一支股票的市盈率很少保持在15倍左右,因為人們對公司前景的預計會高過這種市盈的價格――這種想法不一定正確。我們知道會有例外,但意外的機會只有1%。所以這種奇想影響着你,使人在高市盈率時花高價買入股票。

我對績優公司超出10~15倍市盈率一倍的市盈率是接受的。而它們中許多市盈率只在6~10倍之間,這樣對我們雙方都有利。

如果你能控制一定公司的整體市價,你就可以從中獲得更多的利潤。

7、不要陷入情網

在這個充滿冒險的世界裡,因為存在着許多可能性,人們會痴迷於某種想法、某個人、某種理想。最後能使人痴迷的恐怕就算股票了。但它只是一張證明你對一家企業所有權的紙,它只是金錢的一種象徵。

8、投資多元化,但不做套頭交易

套頭交易就是對一些股票做多頭,對另一些股票做空頭。

專業人士在日常的市場利用套頭交易迴避風險,有時新入市做套頭交易只是一場賭博。我不贊成這樣做。但也沒有法律禁止它。

套頭交易的確是現代股票的一項變革,一個世紀以前當你從紐約和倫敦市場購買同一種股票時,城市間的差價只是些微的。專家們從一個市場買進一隻股票,又在另一個市場上賣掉它,雖然賺錢很少,但還是有盈利的。

獲利及風險因素與當今股市相比較而言是低的。但是相信我,當今股市相當有風險。

如果你堅持做套頭交易,而且確信有經驗可以幫助你,記住要使它多元化,要統觀全局,確信你的法則是正確的。如果要使你的投資多元化,你就要儘量增加你的收入,如資金。

9、觀察周圍環境

我所說的環境是指市場走向和整個世界環境。你需要變通我給你的那些模式,以適應你所在的市場的運作。

在市場的評估中,應多關注百分比的變化而不是數量。下跌100個點雖然波動很大,但它可能只是指數的2%。

關注市場可以使我發現市場何時開始衰退,又何時開始復甦。這也是經常給投資者以機會,使他們有機會投資到所謂保守的方面,如短期無息國庫債券、長期國庫債券、國庫券。

短期無息國庫債券是大投資者主要的投資方向,它比任何一項投資都有保險,比把錢放在枕頭裡還安全。你不需要經濟學家告訴你怎樣研究利率,沒有什麼能比預測市場的走勢更為重要的。利率的走勢也是如此,長期利率的低迷,比任何其他事實都能說明經濟形勢的嚴峻。 一般情況下,如果短期和長期利率開始上升,這是在告訴股票投資者:升勢來了。

股票不分季節,按照日曆投資是沒有必要的。記住,對投資者來講,任何時候都是冒險的。對享受人生和享受投資快樂的人來說,季節雖多變,但機會隨時都有。

10、不要墨守陳規

根據形勢的變化改變自己的思維方式是有必要的。我的觀點是,你應該主動根據經濟、政治因素的變化而變化。至於技術上,有時我們可以控制,但有時卻是在我們控制之外的。

我擅長做熊市思維,我與樂觀者們唱反調。但是,如果大多數人有悲觀情,我就與之相反做牛市思維;反之亦然,我同時做套頭交易。

  Roy R. Neuberger Dies at 107; Applied a          Stock Trader’s Acumen to Art

Roy R. Neuberger, who drew on youthful passions for stock trading and art to build one of Wall Street’s most venerable partnerships and one of the country’s largest private collections of 20th-century masterpieces, died on Friday at his home at the Pierre Hotel in Manhattan. He was 107 and had lived in New York City for 101 years.

His death was confirmed by a grandson, Matthew London.

Mr. Neuberger had set out to study art, but ended up as a stockbroker, a life path once likened to Gauguin’s in reverse. As a founder of the investment firm Neuberger & Berman, he was one of the few people to experience three of Wall Street’s major market crises, in 1929, 1987 and 2008. Although his artistic ability left no lasting impact, his wealth did.

Believing that collectors should acquire art being produced in their own time and then hold on to it, giving the public access but never selling, Mr. Neuberger accumulated hundreds of paintings and sculptures by Milton Avery, Jackson Pollock, Willem de Kooning and others, becoming one of America’s leading art patrons. Those works are now spread over more than 70 institutions in 24 states, many of them in the permanent collection of the Neuberger Museum of Art, which opened in 1974 on the Purchase College campus of the State University of New York.

The money to buy the works came from his investments at Neuberger & Berman (now Neuberger Berman), the brokerage and investment firm he founded in 1939 with Robert B. Berman. The firm catered to wealthy individuals but also took on a less affluent clientele with the establishment, in 1950, of the Neuberger Guardian mutual fund, one of the first funds to be sold without the usual 8.5 percent upfront sales commission.


His art collecting drew on the lessons he learned in the financial world. Each year he would buy more than he had bought the previous year, often purchasing large lots at a time. In 1948, for example, he bought 46 paintings by Milton Avery, whom Mr. Neuberger counted as a close friend. He eventually owned more than 100 Avery works.

“My experience on Wall Street made it possible for me to be comfortable buying a lot of art at once,” he later wrote. “In my investment firm, when we like a security after careful analysis, we buy a modest quantity. Sometimes after the purchase, we will find that we like it very much. If a large quantity of the stock then becomes available, and we are still enthusiastic about its value and its future, we will buy in quantity quickly, even though the day before we had no such plan and no knowledge that the stock would be available.”

“The same principle,” he added, “applied to my purchase of the Avery paintings.”

Roy Rothschild Neuberger was born on July 21, 1903, in Bridgeport, Conn. His father, Louis, who was 52 when Roy was born, had come to the United States from Germany as a boy. His mother, the former Bertha Rothschild, was a native of Chicago, a lover of music (she played the piano) and a “nervous, troubled woman from a large, well-to-do Jewish family, not related to the famous Rothschilds,” Mr. Neuberger wrote in an autobiography, “So Far, So Good: The First 94 Years” (John Wiley & Sons, 1997).

His father was half owner of the Connecticut Web and Buckle Company and had an interest in the stock market, owning thousands of shares in a Montana copper company. The Neuberger family moved to Manhattan in 1909, settling on Claremont Avenue opposite Barnard College on the Upper West Side. Mr. Neuberger attended DeWitt Clinton High School, where in his senior year he was captain of the tennis team that won the Greater New York championship.

“Looking back on my youthful addiction to tennis, I find it not much different from my fascination with the market,” Mr. Neuberger wrote in his autobiography. “You have to make fast decisions. You can’t wait to think about it overnight.”

A similar impatience led him to leave New York University after a single year. He felt, he wrote, “that I could learn much more out in the world of business.”

It was while working for two years as a buyer of upholstery fabrics for the department store B. Altman & Company that he said he developed an eye for painting and sculpture as well as a sense for trading. Both would greatly influence his later life, as would John Galsworthy’s series of novels “The Forsyte Saga,” which described the practice among well-to-do English families of educating their children on the European continent, and “Vincent van Gogh,” a biography by Floret Fels.

The first book led Mr. Neuberger to a sojourn in Europe. Using money inherited from his father, he set out in June 1924 for a life of leisure. While living mainly on the Left Bank in Paris, he spent afternoons at a cafe, played in tennis tournaments in Cannes and traveled to Berlin and other European capitals.

In Paris, Mr. Neuberger was inspired by the van Gogh biography to collect and support the work of living artists.

“Of course, to do so, I had to have capital of considerably more than the inheritance that gave me an annual income of about $2,000,” he later wrote. “In those days you could live very comfortably, almost luxuriously, on $2,000, but you couldn’t buy art in quantity. So I decided to go back to work in earnest.”

He arrived on Wall Street in the spring of 1929, as the bull market was roaring toward its peak. Hired for $15 a week as a runner for the brokerage firm Halle & Stieglitz, he soon learned all aspects of the business, at the same time managing his own money.

One of the first big trades he executed on his own behalf was designed to hedge his own wealth against the possibility that the stock market might fall from its precarious height. He sold short 100 shares of the Radio Corporation of America, the most popular stock of the era, betting that its price would decline from its lofty level of $500.

In October 1929 came the crash that ushered in the Great Depression, and while Mr. Neuberger’s blue-chip stocks fell, his bet against RCA paid off well: the stock’s price eventually fell into the single digits. He said he lost only 15 percent of his money in the crash, while many others lost everything.

On June 29, 1932, the Dow Jones industrial average dipped to 42 and Mr. Neuberger married Marie Salant, a graduate in economics from Bryn Mawr who had gone to work in the research department of Halle & Stieglitz two years earlier.

“I can report that by June 29, 1996, the Dow Jones industrial average had climbed to 5,704 and Marie and I had had 64 wonderful years together,” Mr. Neuberger later wrote. Mrs. Neuberger died in 1997.

Besides Mr. London, Mr. Neuberger is survived by his daughter, Ann Neuberger Aceves; his sons, Roy S. Neuberger of Lawrence, N.Y., and James A. Neuberger of New York City; seven other grandchildren; and 30 great-grandchildren.

Emboldened by his management of his own assets, Mr. Neuberger became a stockbroker at Halle & Stieglitz in 1930, leaving nine years later to start his own firm, Neuberger & Berman. The firm was later acquired by Lehman Brothers, but spun off in 2008 as a stand-alone company with Lehman’s bankruptcy. Mr. Neuberger continued to go to his Neuberger Berman office every day until he was 99, Mr. London said.

Mr. Neuberger began to build his art collection in the late 1930s, and although he was asked to do so many times, he never sold a painting by a living artist. “I have not collected art as an investor would,” he said. “I collect art because I love it.”

He preferred to share his love by donating works to museums and colleges. In May 1965, Mr. Neuberger received an anonymous offer to buy his art collection for $5 million, a sum he considered a fortune at the time.

Years later he learned that the offer had come from Nelson A. Rockefeller, then governor of New York. Mr. Rockefeller went on to play a key role in Mr. Neuberger’s art collection. In May 1967, while Mr. Neuberger was visiting Mr. Rockefeller at his Pocantico Hills estate in Westchester County, the governor offered to have New York State build a museum to house the collection at the State University campus at Purchase.

Designed by Philip Johnson, the museum opened in May 1974. Mr. Neuberger often said that the true spirit of his collection could be found on the second floor, which held seminal paintings by Pollock, Stuart Davis, Edward Hopper and Georgia O’Keeffe, as well as many Milton Averys.

Mr. Neuberger made an additional gift of $1.3 million to the State University at Purchase in 1984 and other major gifts to the Museum of Modern Art and the Metropolitan Museum of Art. He also served as a president of the New York Society for Ethical Culture and the American Federation of Arts.

Mr. Neuberger’s second memoir, “The Passionate Collector,” was published by John Wiley & Sons in 2003. At a White House ceremony in 2007, President Bush presented Mr. Neuberger with a National Medal of Arts.

Like any collector, Mr. Neuberger rued the ones that got away. He remembered passing up a Grant Wood painting as well as refusing to pay $300 for a Jasper Johns in the late 1950s. One time a dealer offered him a Picasso sculpture for $1,500, but he declined because he was buying works only by American artists. “I was such a square that I stupidly didn’t buy it,” he told The New York Times in an interview in 2003.

Mr. Neuberger bought all his works himself, usually through dealers. And his taste ran toward the bold. “I liked adventuresome work that I often didn’t understand,” he told The Times as he was celebrating his 100th birthday. “For art to be very good it has to be over your head.”

But he said he enjoyed the challenge that the work posed to the viewer. “Those who understand the mysteries of art,” he said, “are made happier by doing so.”


         盤點中國股市十大牛散


                                 2015年04月13日 14:45  《理財周刊》 文/本刊記者 劉暢


      http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/lczx/20150413/144521943325.shtml



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