汽車電池：現實和夢想

如果有人能夠生產出一個個經濟適用的，可充電的大容量汽車電池，這個世界將會是一個什麼樣的格局？

            如果每個人都可以做到隨便花點小錢，就能夠在HomeDepot 或者Low’s 買到一個價廉物美的“小設備”，又很容易就可以安裝在自家後院或者前面，既好看，又能夠很充分地將終日來來去去的風神轉變為電能，而這些電能又能夠很容易地儲層和使用，那麼，這個世界又將會是什麼樣子的？

            汽車電池技術的提高和普及，將在很大程度上改變這個世界的生活和人們的思考方式。那麼，我們到底離這個夢想有多遠呢？

            前陣子，一家美國生產汽車用電池的公司（AONE）股票上市，開盤時人們似乎很興奮。結果，一個季度下來，糟糕的業績實在是再也無法提起投資者的興趣了。看來，那些在初次上市時需要賣出股票的賣家，又一次成功地忽悠了股民一次。

            今天，一家中國國營公司對於這一市場的參與，似乎是給了這個市場的玩家注入了一劑興奮劑，只是，我擔心，這種興奮劑恐怕能夠持續的時間不會太久。

            巴菲特對比亞迪的興趣，曾經給予不少的投資者以想象力飛翔的空間，巴菲特自己也因為中國股民對他的熱愛而大賺特賺。

比亞迪的主打產品似乎就是電動汽車。那麼，我不是特別能夠理解，在汽車電池儲層技術還沒有怎麼得到解決的前提下，電動汽車又能夠興旺到哪一步呢？

作為投資者，如果在中國或者香港地區投資，只要是時不時玩一家公司，巴菲特需要的實際上也就是一個故事和該故事所能夠給大家帶來的想象空間了。他的價值投資理念在那裡只要是能夠成為一個故事就好了、足夠了。作為中國人心目中的神，這就是力量。

有時候覺得，中國股民似乎是一個被人玩弄的猴子，而且還是很聽話的猴子。如果這代表了一種國民性，我看不出中國能夠有讓自己真正強大的一天。

你可千萬別小看，投資者行為所折射的意義。

在金錢上，人們所表示出的行為非常真實，雖然很多時候這種真實可能還帶着眼淚。如果在其他方面人們喜歡玩虛招的話，在這裡所表現出來的非理性，就只能用愚昧來描述了。

AONE 在9月下旬上市之後的股價變化圖

『汪翔（原創），作者保留所有權利，引用請註明出處，2009年11月24日』

下面是一個相關的新聞，附錄在這裡作為一份記錄。

【附錄】China's State Grid Enters Utility Storage Market

12:36 PM ET 11/24/09 | Dow Jones

By Jonathan Shieber
Of DOW JONES CLEAN TECHNOLOGY INSIGHT

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China's State Grid Corp. said last week that it had developed its own sodium-sulfur battery for large-scale energy storage applications, marking the entry into that market of a major energy player.
Large-scale energy storage has recently become a focus for clean-technology investors, because large-capacity batteries can help smooth out the intermittent power supplied by renewable sources such as wind and solar.
With State Grid's debut in the market, start-ups and established players now have a very large, very experienced manufacturer with which they will potentially contend for business in a field full of early-stage technologies.
"Energy Storage is becoming more important and it is very exciting to see State Grid really driving it," said Yong Zhang, a clean-technology practice partner with Qiming Weichuang Venture Capital Management (Shanghai) Co. "They may give different technology [and] solutions a share in their first batch of trials."
State Grid didn't respond to a request for comment about its battery storage work.
One investor with knowledge of the battery industry said that there's no certainty that the state-owned enterprise can develop this technology to the point of manufacturing it on a commercial scale. He described the company's efforts as more like a research and development project.
He said that several companies with large-scale storage technologies are working in partnership with State Grid on bringing the technology to the market.
In addition to its reputation as one of China's two grid-management companies in charge of overseeing the distribution of power for most of the country's population, State Grid is also China's largest manufacturer of electrical equipment, which means it has an established manufacturing base.
Currently, the premier manufacturer of sodium-sulfur batteries is the Japanese company NGK Insulators Ltd. (5333.TO), which is currently selling its batteries for pilot projects with a number of utilities worldwide. For example, Columbus, Ohio-based American Electric Power Co. (AEP) has been using a sodium-sulfur battery from NGK Insulators at a site in Charleston, W.Va., to determine the capabilities of the technology.
But a number of other companies are looking to unseat it with new technologies. For instance, Fairfield, Conn.-based General Electric Co. (GE) invested approximately $100 million to build a battery research facility in Niskayuna, N.Y., that will conduct research into sodium-sulfur batteries.
Venture investors have also stepped into the breach - with a trio of some of the biggest and most active firms in the U.S. staking money on battery plays in North America and China. Draper Fisher Jurvetson has backed the China-based Prudent Energy Inc., while Intel Capital has put its money behind the Chinese power company NetPowerTech Co.; VantagePoint Venture Partners has invested in the large-format North American battery manufacturing company Premium Power Corp.
These companies all have different technologies, but for all of them their target market is the utility sector. And with the money China is spending on building out its infrastructure, it could make a tempting place to try and plant a flag for a fledgling business.
Other technology developers, such as publicly traded, Watertown, Mass.-based A123 Systems Inc. (AONE) and Shenzhen, China-based BYD Co. (1211.HK) think that the utility market represents another opportunity for their lithium-ion battery technology, which has traditionally been seen as a more suited energy storage technology for the automotive industry.
The U.S.-based think-tank the Electric Power Research Institute has proposed that utility markets could complement the work that companies like A123 Systems have done in the transportation sector, using lithium-ion batteries.
Lithium-ion battery manufacturer Valence Technology Inc. (VLNC) is working with two European power and transmission companies, National Grid PLC (NGG, NG.LN) and Red Electrica de Espana, to develop large-scale batteries for utility grids, Clean Technology Insight reported previously.
However, some utility executives aren't convinced that battery technology will provide viable storage. Fong Wan, senior vice-president of energy procurement at San Francisco-based utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co., speaking at the Dow Jones Alternative Energy Innovations conference held last week in Redwood City, Calif., said he hadn't "seen any successful battery technology on the wholesale level." PG&E, he said, is investigating adding more pumped storage technology and looking into using compressed air for storage.
Even though State Grid is the biggest game in China when it comes to the power market, industry observers said that competition from the company doesn't mean that China is necessarily closed to other vendors.
"Chinese companies will take the best technology out there," said Jonathan R. Woetzel, a director in the Shanghai office of consulting company McKinsey & Co.
(Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight covers news about public and private clean-technology and alternative-energy companies.)

By Jonathan Shieber, Dow Jones Clean Technology Insight; 8621-6120-1200; jonathan.shieber@dowjones.com