中國經濟繁榮與投資中石油
中國的經濟繁榮意味着中國國內對石油產品需求的增加。在一個完全市場經濟的環境下，那些提供汽油等石油產品的公司就應該能夠很賺錢。這種邏輯對於中國的石油公司是不是成立？
至少，在華爾街的眼裡，似乎是不成立的。最近中石油股價的持續下跌就是一個明顯的信號。如果你認為華爾街是對的，你就應該清倉，否則，現在就是建倉的最好時機。
華爾街在怎厶想，我不知道。不過，對於中國的石油公司，有幾點∶
其一，需求增加，在供給不能隨之增加的情況下，就應該是價格的提高。這種微觀經濟學的基本原理，在政府的價格控制環境下，就沒有了成立的基礎。結果就是，在國際油價高時，你還得繼續向國內市場供應低價的汽油產品。這相當於是石油公司在給國內的消費者發補貼，是代表國家在扶持汽車消費業。
其二，作為一個企業，特別是“製造”和“零售”企業，你供應市場的商品即使特別好銷，如果你沒有辦法繼續獲得“貨源”，那厶，你的發展也是不可持續的。石油資源，特別是低價的石油資源的可持續獲得性，也是一直在困擾中國石油公司的問題。
其三，中國政府對待中國石油公司的政策限制，到底是在以國家利益為重還是以股東利益為主，這個對於私營企業不存在的問題，在中國的石油公司那裡，卻是一個讓股東很費思量的問題。
中國到底是一個什厶樣的市場經濟？市場經濟真的有國別的不同還是只有不同國家使用藉口的不同？
微觀經濟學從完全競爭開始分析市場經濟的運行，在此基礎上增加約束獲得深入的分析結果，如果基於這種分析思路，那厶，中國政府對市場的干預，到底造成的是一個什厶樣的“扭曲”了的市場經濟呢？
如果誰發現了對這個問題系統而又深入的分析，請千丌別忘了告訴我。
“中國特色”是一個太讓人費解的“特色”。似乎是，所有沒有道理，或者找不出理性的理由的東西，都可以被標識為中國特色。這到底是在忽悠他人還是在忽悠自己？
【附錄】China demand offers little help to local oil firms
12/21/09。TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- China's oil demand has jumped as the nation's economy continues to recover, but analysts warn against expecting that rise to be an automatic boon for oil companies in Asia.
"The China oil demand surge spells less for Asian oil companies as [much as for] those in Africa, which is about the only place that China can still be a buyer of reserves," said Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
Implied Chinese oil demand surged 18.7% in November from a year earlier, marking the third straight month of double-digit growth, according to a report released Monday in Hong Kong from energy and commodities information provider Platts.
Demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer was estimated to reach 33.67 million metric tons in November, compared to 28.36 million metric tons a year ago, Platts' analysis of official data showed.
"China has pulled out all the stops this year to be sure that its economy has performed well throughout the global financial crisis," Dave Ernsberger, Platts senior editorial director for Asia, said in a statement.
"Lifting demand for oil by double-digits month after month was not Beijing's goal when it injected half a trillion dollars into its economy this year, but it was one of the most significant consequences," he said.
Even so, the rising need won't necessarily help China's oil producers or those elsewhere in Asia.
"It's actually a problem as they don't have unlimited supplies to meet this demand," said Ecclestone. "It only works out well if they can buy cheap internationally and sell for a premium to WTI [West Texas Intermediate] or Brent to their domestic customers."
Oil firms in Hong Kong and mainland China traded mainly higher Tuesday. Shares of Cnooc Ltd. (CEO) and PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PCCYF) each added 0.7% in Hong Kong. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., better known as Sinopec , gained 1.5% in Hong Kong, while its Shanghai-listed shares rose 1.6%.
Outside the greater China region, Oil Search Ltd. (OISHF) lost 0.9% in Sydney, while Nippon Oil Corp. (NPOIF) climbed 1.5% in Tokyo.
The gains were in tune with strength in wider market action. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.3%, South Korea's Kospi traded up 0.4%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added on 0.9%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Average climbed 1%. The Shanghai Composite, however, fell 0.3%.
Hunting oil
Ecclestone said investors should keep in mind that "Asia, per se, is not an up-and-coming place as far as new production is concerned."
Sinopec, in particular, has seen overall production-rate increases and higher oil prices, but "the firm's proven oil reserves have actually fallen in the past few years," Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset, said in a note to clients issued last week.
Later this month, Sinopec is expected to discuss the acquisition of oil fields in Africa from its parent (Sinopec Group) -- and the "positive asset injection deal" may provide a boost to the stock, Kwan said.
"With oil prices bound between $60-$80 a barrel in the near term, and considering shareholders' concern about elevated investment risks in the Middle East, the assets in Africa, particularly the producing fields in Angola and Nigeria, could be particularly appealing for Sinopec," he said.
Angola is the second-largest oil-producing country in Africa after Nigeria and has "consistently ranked in the top five among oil exporters to China," he said.
Ecclestone referred to Africa as the first, and maybe even the last, frontier for Chinese oil hunting.
So "Asian oils should move purely with the international price" rather than with Chinese demand, he said. "If global prices are up then, in theory, it should be good" for Asia oil companies."
Guessing price
Then again, analysts seem to be having a difficult time predicting crude's next price move.
Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at Telvent DTN, said technical indications in the oil market show a likelihood of a fall to the $65 to $57 price range for crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange this winter.
February crude was little changed at $73.73 a barrel on Globex, as of the late morning in Tokyo.
Newsom expects the benchmark to fall to his forecast price range if the contango in Nymex futures spreads continues to hold. Contango is defined as a situation when distant delivery prices for futures exceed spot prices, after accounting for the cost of storage.
But the "contango has been weakening of late, indicating renewed commercial buying interest [and] less bearish supply and demand," Newsom said.
Meanwhile, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are gathering in Angola to discuss oil production. See OPEC preview story.
Reiji Ogino, a senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, said in a research note Monday that OPEC will maintain its output quota when it announces the outcome of the meeting later Tuesday.
"Overall, we expect crude prices to remain weak over the next three months," he said.
