| 汪翔：谷歌的挑戰與機會 |
| 送交者: 汪翔 2010年04月14日07:58:23 於 [股市財經] 發送悄悄話 |
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谷歌的挑戰與機會 這幾天，谷歌的股價一路高歌猛進，讓投資者既高興又擔心。幾天之後的盈利報告在不少人看來會非常不錯。再說，這段時間，多數公司給出的報告都比市場的預期要好。美國經濟似乎真的是開始復興了， 而且還來得比人們預期的要快、要好。 在這種背景下，標準普給予谷歌四個星的推薦待遇。從市場的反應看，似乎也認可這種估計。不過，冷靜的投資者也在開始反思谷歌的所做所為，和它將不得不面臨的更為激烈的競爭環境。在這種環境下生存，它居然還可以置成長快速，潛力無限的中國市場而不顧，這則在一定程度上表明，作為一家網絡巨人，他是不是有點頭腦過熱，開始有點不知天高地厚了？ 如果你注意一下歷史，就會發現，很多歷史上曾經不可一世的公司，就是因為這種“不謙虛”而導致自己最終敗落的。當年的K—Mart如此，王安如此，AT&T如此，今後也還會有大量的公司會如此。 反觀微軟這位科技界的巨人，它的長期持久成功，倒是得益於它自己的危機意識。昨天晚上還看了MSNBC播放的關於微軟和比爾·蓋茨的故事片，那種持續的以事業為主導，以公司的長遠發展為主軸的心態，才是讓它一直強大的根源。 谷歌呀，如果你自大，你敗落的時刻也會 你不遠了。一家百年老店的打造和長期繁榮，光靠運氣是遠遠不夠的。美國國際集團也是一個很好的例子。 附錄∶Google Investors Weigh Search Giant's Growing Challenges 4/14/10 | Dow Jones By Scott MorrisonSAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Google Inc. (GOOG) faces a host of challenges, including deep-pocketed competitors, increasingly vigilant U.S. and European regulators, and prickly authorities in China. The Internet search giant's difficulties have not been lost on another key group: Investors. On the business front, social network Facebook Inc. looms as an attractive alternative for Google's advertising customers. Apple Inc. (AAPL) appears set to clash with Google in the mobile advertising market. Governments are also a problem for Google. Regulators are paying close attention to just about every deal it makes and a tense stand-off with China has many investors concerned the Mountain View, Calif.-based company may have limited its options in the world's largest Internet market. The combination of challenges has prompted some investors to reconsider a stock they once considered a must-buy. Though it remains the dominant company in its core business--it has about 75% of the U.S. Internet search advertising market--many investors are skeptical Google can find new revenue streams to deliver the kind of earnings growth that has made it a stock market favorite since 2004. "They have to go beyond being the search provider of choice," said Colin Gillis, an analyst at brokerage BGC Partners. "It's a much more competitive landscape now." Some investors are already acting on their concerns. Since the beginning of the year, Google shares have dropped 5%, while the broad market and rivals like Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) and Apple have risen. On Tuesday, shares rose 2.5%, to $586.77. Google declined to comment for this story. Few competitors loom like Facebook, the 400-million-member Palo Alto, Calif.-based social network that is rapidly approaching Google on a variety of user metrics. In March, Facebook topped Google in monthly page views, grabbing 49 billion to Google's 46 billion, according to comScore. That audience has already attracted 83 of the top 100 U.S. advertisers to Facebook. Google attempts to build social networking platforms haven't gained traction. Recently, its Google Buzz service generated a firestorm of controversy when it erroneously exposed people's personal contacts on the Internet. Meanwhile, Apple is establishing itself as the company to beat in the nascent mobile market, where Google is hoping to expand its search primacy. Apple's iPhone has sold more than 50 million units, compared with about 7 million units for phones running Google's Android operating system. Worse still, Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple last week unveiled a new advertising platform, dubbed iAd, that could challenge Google's search-based model. Of course, few investors are concerned about Google's core search advertising business. Its strengths will likely be evident on Thursday, when the company is expected to report first quarter earnings of $6.58 a share, up from $5.16 a year earlier. Net revenue is expected to be $4.94 billion, up from $4.1 billion. Google supporters argue the company's growth rates will once again ramp up this year as it rolls out new ad formats and online ad spending recovers. They also point out that many of Google's emerging market opportunities will take time to play out--and that it has some $25 billion in cash and a wealth of brain power to throw at any problem. On the other hand, Google's expansion plans appear increasingly likely to run into oppositions from regulators, who appear likely to challenge the company's proposed $750 million acquisition of mobile ad group AdMob. Another key concern has been Google's feud with China. After complaining it was hit by a cyberattack originating in China, Google shut down its mainland search engine and routed its traffic through Hong Kong to evade censorship. Some investors downplay the move, suggesting Google can remain a player in China. Others say Chinese authorities are unlikely to forgive or forget Google's move and they could effectively lock the company out of the world's largest and fastest-growing Internet market. "It was a major strategic blunder," said Ironfire Capital LLC founder Eric Jackson, who late last year sold his firm's Google shares to buy Apple. "How can you walk away from what will be the biggest market in the world in five years?" |
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