請注意:
這是一個月之前發表在華爾街日報上的一篇"舊文"。一個月之後再次閱讀,有些內容仍然有一定參考價值。
美股本輪下挫速度令樂觀人士難樂觀
2010-6-14 華爾街日報 BY E.S. BROWNING
回顧一下歷史，會證實很多投資者對市場最近動盪的感覺：相比下挫的規模，最令人震驚的是下挫的速度。
道瓊斯工業股票平均價格指數從4月26日至6月7日的僅僅42個交易日中，從最高點下跌了12.4%。標準普爾500 指數在45個交易日中從最高點跌了13.7%。
80年來，僅有的另外一次道瓊斯指數在經濟復甦早期下挫如此嚴重、如此迅速的時候是在1950年朝鮮戰爭時。據研究公司Ned Davis Research為《華爾街日報》做的一份研究，當時道瓊斯指數在31個交易日中，從峰值到谷底跌了13.6%。股市於1950年反彈，然後持續了為期10年的一輪牛市。
今年春季，股市下挫被歸咎於對歐洲債務危機和墨西哥灣石油泄漏的擔心。市場被證明如此脆弱，這樣的事實甚至讓一些樂觀的分析人士也懷疑麻煩是否可能比人們認為的還要嚴重。
Ned Davis首席投資策略師海耶斯(Tim Hayes)說，這次的調整比我們認為的更加複雜。
上周末，股市確實上揚了。海耶斯說，他跟蹤的很多指標顯示，最近的下挫或許只是個令人不快的插曲，隨後會有更多的上漲。儘管如此，市場的脆弱讓他心存懷疑。
他承認，我們現在可能實際上處於熊市。如果是這樣，股市將再度下挫，根據最常見的定義，道瓊斯指數將較4月份的高點繼續下挫至少20%。
在4月份的高點之前，道瓊斯指數較2009年3月9日的低點漲了71%，這在股市歷史上是類似規模的上漲中速度最快的一次。
一些分析人士將目前的回調與1983年底開始的幅度達15.6%的調整相提並論。當時的調整發生在從1982年至2000年長時間的股市上漲開始之際，最終卻是令人痛苦的一閃而過。這兩次的差別在於，1983至1984年的調整發生得較緩慢，持續了八個月之久。
一些人說，這次調整中電子交易可能起了作用，電子交易會造成異常的動盪。
研究公司Bespoke Investment Group在一項研究中考察了1927年以來標準普爾500指數下跌了10%及以上的所有情況。其中有40次標準普爾500指數的跌幅等於或大於最近13.7%的跌幅。
大多數情況下（有25次），股市持續下挫，陷入熊市，意味着跌幅達到20%及以上。不過，仍有相當數量的情況（15次），跌勢沒有加重成為熊市。
Bespoke創始人之一沃爾特斯(Justin Walters)說，與大部分調整相比，此次調整發生地很快。
跌幅越大，越有可能變成熊市。和海耶斯一樣，沃爾特斯說，他預計這次股市不會陷入熊市。不過他說，根據歷史數據來看，如果股市再次下挫，觸及新低，陷入熊市的可能就真的很高了。
筆者注:換句話說,如果真的出現那種情況,"市場的底"(若換用love陽光的大方指數的話)將很有可能會低於10,甚至低於5 ...,請大家對潛在的風險給予特別的關注!!!
Rapid Declines Rattle Even Optimists
Previous Stock Slides Driven by Invasions and Other Unsettling World Events; Bear Market Ahead?
JUNE 14, 2010
BY E.S. BROWNING
A look at history confirms something many investors had felt about the market's recent turmoil: It is the speed of the declines, even more than the size, that has been most shocking.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12.4% in just 42 days from the peak on April 26 through June 7. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 13.7% in 45 days from its peak.
The only other time in 80 years that the Dow has fallen that far, that fast so early in an economic rebound was in 1950, when North Korea invaded South Korea to start the Korean War. Then, the Dow fell 13.6% in 31 days from peak to trough, according to a study done for The Wall Street Journal by Ned Davis Research. Stocks recovered in 1950 and remained in a bull market for another decade.
This spring, the stock decline has been blamed on things like fears of spreading debt woes in Europe and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, severe problems but somehow less bone-chilling than a Communist invasion. The fact that the market has proved so fragile has made even some optimistic analysts wonder whether the troubles might be deeper than people had believed.
"This correction has had more legs than we thought," says Tim Hayes, Ned Davis's chief investment strategist.
At the end of last week, stocks did rally. Mr. Hayes says the many indicators he tracks tell him the recent downdraft is probably a nasty interlude to be followed by more gains. Still, the market's vulnerability has left him with doubts.
"We could actually be in a bear market now," he acknowledges. If so, stocks would resume their declines and, by the most common definition, the Dow would continue down to at least 20% from the April high.
Before the April swoon, the Dow had been up 71% from its low on March 9, 2009, one of the fastest rallies of that size in market history.
To see how the recent declines stack up with past ones, Ned Davis Research looked at all pullbacks of 10% or more during periods when the economy was in the first 18 months of recovery from recession, as it is now. Normally, that is a strong period for stocks: The study found that rapid declines are rare in such a period and tend to be associated with unsettling world events.
In 1955, the Dow fell 10% in 18 days—a smaller decline than today's, but a sharp one. It came at the time of President Dwight Eisenhower's heart attack, which shocked the country. To find a similarly large decline in a short period, one has to go back to 1928, when the inflated stock market wavered less than a year before the 1929 crash.
It isn't common for stocks to go into a bear market so soon after an economic recovery has begun, but it isn't unprecedented. It happened in 1962, at the end of the long 1950s bull market. In 2002, stocks fell more than 31%, during the Enron and WorldCom scandals. That was another period when stocks rallied after a long bear market and then hit trouble, a double dip that shattered investors' confidence. In 2002, the rally ran out of steam and the bear market resumed, although the rally in 2001-2002 wasn't nearly as long or as large as the one the market has just experienced. Much like 2002, the recent decline has also alarmed many individual investors who had only just begun to regain their appetite for stocks.
Stocks also went into bear markets in the early phases of economic recoveries in the 1930s and 1940s, a period of economic and international unrest.
Some analysts compare the current pullback with a 15.6% correction that began late in 1983. That one came at the beginning of a long period of stock strength that ran from 1982 through 2000, and turned out to be no more than a painful blip. The difference is that the 1983-1984 correction happened slowly, over eight months.
Some say that electronic trading may be playing a part this time by contributing to exceptional volatility, because hundreds of millions of shares can change hands in minutes. Once, it was highly unusual for 90% of stocks to be up or down on any single day. In recent years, as computers have come to dominate trading, it has become much more common.
Bespoke Investment Group did a study looking at all declines of 10% or more in the S&P 500 since 1927. Those include 40 cases in which the S&P 500 fell as much as, or more than, its recent 13.7% decline.
In 25 cases, the majority, stocks continued down and wound up in a bear market, meaning a decline of 20% or more. But there was still a significant minority of cases, 15, in which the declines stopped short of a bear market.
"This correction has happened very fast compared to most corrections," says Justin Walters, Bespoke's co-founder.
The deeper a decline gets, the higher the odds it will become a bear market. Like Mr. Hayes, Mr. Walters says he expects stocks to avoid a bear market this time. But if stocks turn down again and "we hit a new low, the odds are really high that we will go into a bear market, based on the historical numbers," he says.
One reason that analysts such as Mr. Walters and Mr. Hayes expect stocks to recover is that they were looking particularly strong shortly before the April declines.
Almost 30% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange hit new highs in March, the most since 2003, Mr. Hayes says. The market turned down just one week after the percentage of new highs peaked in mid-April.
It is rare for stocks to go from such broad strength directly into a bear market. It usually takes indexes weeks to begin a decline after individual stocks begin fading. The only time a bear-market decline began a week after a peak in new highs was in March 2002, and many analysts consider that downturn the continuation of an old bear marketrather than the start of a new one.
Bearish analysts worry that the market's recent weakness is a sign that the world's debt and unemployment problems may be too severe to keep the stock market moving higher. But Richard Sylla, professor of economics and financial history at New York University's Stern School of Business, says he feels optimistic about the market.
His research shows that horrible decades like the past one tend to be followed by better periods for stocks. It is normal for stocks to rally when unemployment is high, before the economy is fully back on its feet, he says. He says corporations have cut their debt and improved cash positions and profits.
Prof. Sylla says he put some of his personal savings back into stocks early this month. He didn't put all his cash to work, however, and says he would consider buying more stocks if prices fall more. Although it could take more time, he says, he thinks better days are ahead for stocks."After 10 bad years, I think the next 10 years will look pretty good," he says.
Write to E.S. Browning at jim.browning@wsj.com
