| 蘋果和摩托羅拉之戰，誰會善終？ |
| 送交者: 汪翔 2011年03月08日06:17:58 於 [股市財經] 發送悄悄話 |
|
蘋果和摩托羅拉之戰，誰會善終？ 蘋果和摩托羅拉在平板電腦戰場開戰了。 最終勝利的，估計還會是蘋果公司。那麼，是不是蘋果公司的產品就肯定比摩托羅拉的同類產品要好？或者“至少”是性價比更高呢？從下面這篇文章的分析來看似乎並不是。很多年之前，相對於微軟擁有明顯技術優勢的蘋果，在雙方的爭奪和絞殺之後，在最終慘敗到接近破產的邊緣的時刻，還算有自知之明。在許多年的“深山”修煉之後，蘋果總算明白了一個道理：企業之間的競爭，最後制勝的最重要武器，肯定不應該只是技術本身。技術只是企業成功的一個原因而已！在這裡，科技是第一生產力，恐怕也是一句忽悠自己的外行話了！如果上升到國家層次的管理，你就會明白，為什麼有的國家能夠做到長久的繁榮，而有的，只能夠很阿Q地自嘆“分久必合，合久必分”之類“哲理”的真理性和不可違抗性了。 今天面對摩托羅拉和其他的競爭者，蘋果明顯老練了許多。按照下面這篇文章的說法，在高端市場，特別是在和無線手機（3G、4G）服務捆綁之後，蘋果的平板電腦“應該”是沒有優勢的，但是，為什麼蘋果能夠給人一個性價比最優的印象呢？就是因為蘋果的斯蒂夫忽悠人的水平比較高的原因嗎？ 我看未必。在美國消費品市場，想靠忽悠消費者來長期大賺特賺，恐怕很難。 我倒是覺得，摩托羅拉應該好好合計、琢磨一下，像蘋果這樣的公司的戰法，為什麼就能夠在如此長時間內還是戰無不勝？其中的核心奧秘是什麼？這才是最重要的。我不覺得，在摩托羅拉公司內部沒有那個認識到這一點的人，但是，為什麼這樣的人在摩托羅拉就成不了氣候呢？他們在那裡，可能還是刺頭呢？為什麼？（如果你想海歸，你又是這樣的人才，那麼，如果不小心選擇了摩托羅拉，最終你就是自找倒霉。如果你很運氣地撞上了蘋果，你可能就是一個人才，而且可能還是一個大人才！這是題外話了。） 蘋果公司花重筆強調自己產品價格的低廉，從表面上看，它是在強調自己最初級產品價格上的優勢，那麼，對手為什麼不也這麼做？即使想做，能夠做成功嗎？蘋果的低檔款產品供給，對於公司經營戰略而言的主要功能，恐怕不僅僅只是在打廣告，還應該是在滿足為數並不小的低檔市場了。在這一塊，至少蘋果能夠做到有錢可賺，這也是一種本事。 作為投資者，你在蘋果好摩托羅拉之間，到底會將賭注壓在誰的身上呢？ 在我的印象之中，摩托羅拉似乎是個“全才”，什麼都能夠折騰出來。但是，它就是沒有像蘋果這樣的出色表現，從它那不爭氣的股票表現就很容易看出。結果，就像是在和英特爾競爭的AMD一樣，一再成為常態的失敗者。不同的文化和企業制度，可能已經決定了， 摩托羅拉在和蘋果的未來爭奪戰中，也難以善終。 附錄：How the iPad could cost you more than the Xoom Last week the chief executive of Apple Inc. (AAPL) -- emerging from sick leave -- took to the stage to unveil his latest technological marvel, the new iPad 2. And in a bravura performance he successfully persuaded most of the world that it's better and cheaper than its new competitor, the Xoom from Motorola. No wonder shares of Motorola Mobility Holdings (MMI) have tumbled 10% since last week's iPad moment, falling from $30 to $27. Apple's stock, meanwhile, is up about $4 to $354 -- near a record high. There's just one problem. The price difference isn't quite what it seems. Some of the new iPads will be cheaper than the Xoom. But for some people, the Xoom will actually be cheaper. If you've been following the media coverage over the past week, you've probably missed this fact. Why? Because it doesn't seem to have caught the attention -- of analysts or, perhaps, many in the media. The headline figures look pretty straightforward: The iPad 2 starts at $499. The Xoom costs $799. So far, good for Apple. But the $499 iPad 2 is the bare-bones model. It only comes with WiFi, lacks a 3G connection on a cellular network, and it has a mere 16 Gigabytes of memory. The $799 Xoom has 3G, and 32 gigabytes of memory. A comparable iPad -- with a 3G connection, and 32 gigs of memory -- costs $729. So the iPad 2 is still cheaper, only not by so much, right? Not so fast. If you buy the Xoom, and sign up for a two-year wireless contract with Verizon Wireless, you'll only have to pay $599 for the device. You get an upfront subsidy of $200, like the subsidy you get on most cellular smartphones. What's the equivalent subsidy on the iPad 2? Nada. Zip. Squat. There isn't one. So someone who wants the 32 gigabytes of memory, and wants to use the 3G connection every month, may actually save money by buying the Xoom instead of the iPad 2. You didn't hear that on stage in San Francisco last week. And you haven't heard much about it since either. And it doesn't stop there. What about someone who wants a tablet with even more memory? You can get an iPad 2 with 64 gigabytes of memory. That's a lot of videos, songs, and photos. It will cost you $829. But the Xoom has something the iPad 2 doesn't: A micro-SD slot. So -- after a forthcoming update -- you will be able to add memory yourself. And that's likely to be cheaper. You can buy 32 gigabyte micro-SD cards for $65, and if you just want, say, 16 gigs you can get them for less than $30. The price is dropping all the time. Furthermore, heavy data users may find the Xoom costs them less each month as well. Someone using a massive 10 gigabytes of data a month on Verizon Wireless would pay $5 less per month on the Xoom than the iPad 2. None of this, naturally, is to suggest the Xoom is inherently the better product or that you should buy one instead. But it does counter the suggestion that the iPad is always the much cheaper alternative. It isn't. Despite what Jobs would have you believe, the picture is more mixed. In terms of technical specifications, the Xoom is heavier, but it has a better screen. It will run Flash, which means you can pretty much watch Web video as you do on your laptop or PC. The iPad won't, partly, at least, because Jobs wants you to pay money to watch programs through iTunes. The Xoom has access to many fewer third-party applications. Later this year the Xoom will also run on Verizon's (VZ) "4G" network, dubbed LTE. A spokeswoman explains that this runs 10 times as fast as current 3G networks. Of course, that's all in the future. Motorola, for reasons best known to itself, has managed to bobble the new product launch. Folks buying a Xoom today will have to wait for updates from Motorola before they can use micro-SD cards or watch web videos using Flash. It's errors like this that keep Apple on a roll. But the most important implication of the rising competitive environment may be financial. Apple makes its biggest margins, naturally enough, on higher-end products with the most memory. That's been especially true of iPods, iPhones, and iPads. (So the iPad with 32 gigabytes of memory will cost you $100 more than the one with just 16 gigabytes, even though a 16-gigabyte memory card at Amazon.com costs less than $30.) But it's precisely at the higher end that Motorola's Xoom is more competitive. Sure, Apple wins the battle of the bare-bones tablets. But that's not the most lucrative end of the business. Too many fans view this as a battle. You will hear all sorts of people telling you Apple is the "winner." But for investors, it's not always like that. It's not a zero-sum game. If you have serious competition, that's going to compress profit margins. The best news for Apple investors? The company's amazing marketing magic continues, unabated. Regardless of whether the iPad 2 is actually better or cheaper, the Wizard of Oz has successfully wooed the world to think it is. And in the age of the Internet, where there are no facts, only opinions, isn't that what matters? |
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
| 實用資訊 | |
|
|
|
|
| 一周點擊熱帖 | 更多>> |
|
|
|
| 一周回復熱帖 |
|
|
|
|
| 歷史上的今天：回復熱帖 |
| 2010: | 周評：從美國真實意願厘“黃金”投資思 | |
| 2010: | 迪拜地產是否有投資價值：建在沙漠上夢 | |
| 2009: | 俺有點想全面撤軍， | |
| 2009: | 大英帝國的最後一根稻草：英鎊 | |
