金子還是股票：Stansberry PK Buffett

以現今美國的經濟形勢來看，投資金銀與投資股票，孰優孰劣？金融投資領域裡有兩種截然不同的觀點，以Porter Stansberry和 Warren Buffett為代表。下面是兩個例子。

例1：Porter Stansberry: 50% gold, 50% cash

Porter Stansberry在最近的一個名為The End of America的商業廣告片中稱美元將不斷貶值，美國金融系統將要崩潰、社會將出現動亂（見http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI-BIVWlc7A）。網友白凡對此提供了中文編譯文本； 詳見博文《盛世危言：美國的末日來到了嗎？（一）》。

Stansberry呼籲人們趕緊買黃金白銀。他建議投資者持有50%的黃金、50%的貨幣，藉以保值抗通膨、度過危機。（見http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_debt_122920102）。

Stansberry的演講與一系列評論文章代表了長期以來美國投資界一部分人的觀點，並非今天才出現。例如，投資評論家Dan Ferris在一篇評論中就說，The "End of America" Is Nearing, Buy and Hold Gold。（http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25588.html）。

例2：Warren Buffett: Forget gold, buy stocks

下面是財富雜誌資深記者Ben Stein於2010年10月訪問Warren Buffett時的一個片段。

FORTUNE -- The first thing I notice on my most recent visit with Warren E. Buffett, who recently turned 80, is how incredible he looks. He would look terrific for 50; for 80, he looks like Charles Atlas. He's modest about it, as he is about everything. "It all works great," he says. "The eyes, the hearing -- everything works great ... which it will until it all falls apart."

The second thing you notice is that he is so smart it curls your hair.

My first question, as I sit there on the couch in his office, is: "What about gold? Is this a classic bubble or what?"

"Look," he says, with his usual confident laugh. "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

Okay, so gold is not a screaming buy to Buffett. What should a typical upper-middle-class person in the U.S. buy to prepare for retirement?

"Equities," Buffett answers without a moment's hesitation.

（http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm）

Stansberry呼籲買黃金，Buffett強調買股票，到底誰對誰錯？個人認為沒有對錯之分，而是對美國經濟前景的不同預測而已。Stansberry等人的宣傳有一定價值，既美國在世界上的主宰地位今不如昔，美國人民必須重新思考生活方式。然而，本人對美國經濟的緩慢復甦充滿信心，在投資方面更傾向於長期持有股票的指數基金。少量的持有黃金（5%的總投資量）不是不可以。

當然，如何投資是見仁見智的事。歡迎網友評論指教。