| 汪翔：巴菲特看好美国经济复苏 |
| 送交者: 汪翔 2009年11月04日17:02:55 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话 |
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巴菲特看好美国经济复苏 2009年11月3日，巴菲特宣布，将兼并美国铁路公司，并且付价慷慨。说明他对美国经济的复苏怀有很高的预期。铁路运输业务的提升，是经济繁荣的必然结果，也只有在经济繁荣时，运输业才有好的盈利结果。 问题是，在人们依然担心，危机还将再度回头的时刻，巴菲特注入巨资收购一家必须依赖经济繁荣才能获得好投资回报的公司，这种逆市而行的举动，令不少人不得不，从不同的角度，审视一下已经有的经济数。 巴菲特对于拥有已经“过时”运输手段公司的购买，说明他预期美国的经济繁荣还会持续很久。也就是说，美国不可能就此败落，中国和印度经济的发展，不可能对美国经济带来致命性的打击。巴菲特是买了就不会再卖出的，他应该是已经算好了这家公司的“现值”的，而且还是在有着很高的安全边际的前提下的投资决策。 如果历史有什厶借鉴意义的话，很可能，美国经济在半年之后就会有很明显、很稳定的复苏结果。在CITI破产，带给人们对于商业不动产方面的担忧的第二天，就出现了巴菲特的视而不见的“顽固”举动，也是一个很有意思的事情。 有时候，解读股市和股市上高手的动作，和看围棋比赛的感觉也差不到哪里去。在这里，也有不少的人在帮助你解读各位高手的走棋意义，并且，人们还在借此来预测他们下一步的动作，和已有动作的可能结果。 金融市场就是一个博弈市场，不同于围棋棋盘上的战斗，这里有着更多的灵活性和可比性。关于金融危机中金融市场的博弈特色，诸位可得大方一点，在《博弈时代》明年初出版之后，捧捧场。（《博弈时代》∶汪翔 著， 人民出版社，即将出版）那本书相当于是一本“棋谱”，讲解了金融危机这个大棋盘中的一场大对垒。至于对不对，那就看各个人的理解角度了。（2009年11月4日） 【附录；相关新闻原文】 NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc will pay $26 billion to buy out railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp in what the billionaire investor called a bet on the U.S. economy. The deal, Buffett's biggest-ever acquisition, is priced at a premium of 31.5 percent over BNSF's closing stock price on Monday and values the railroad at $34 billion. "It's an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States," Buffett said in a statement, adding that railroads are key to the U.S. economy and will benefit as recovery takes hold. "I love these bets." To help ease the way for the deal, Berkshire's board approved a 50-for-1 split of the company's Class B common stock, its first split ever under Buffett. Berkshire will pay $100 per share in cash and stock for the 77.4 percent of BNSF shares it does not already own. Berkshire will also assume $10 billion of BNSF debt. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2010. The deal comes as the U.S. economy is beginning to recover from its worst downturn since World War II. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the first quarterly growth in more than a year. BNSF, which operates in the U.S. West and Midwest, said in September it was seeing an uptick in freight volume and was encouraged by an improvement in consumer-related markets. U.S. railroads in recent years have invested in new technology and improved the efficiency of operations, while arguing their method of transport is cheaper and cleaner than shipping goods by truck. Observers questioned whether Buffett will have to sell his holdings in other railroads to win regulatory approval for the BNSF deal. Berkshire had a 1.9 percent stake in Union Pacific Corp, or 9.56 million shares, as of June 30, and a 0.5 percent stake in Norfolk Southern Corp, or 1.93 million shares, according to Thomson Reuters data. "For the market, it can be seen as a sign of confidence (about the economy)," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York. "Berkshire is seeing way past some impending economic recovery signs now and looking into the future," he said. Berkshire will pay about $16 billion in cash and the rest in stock. Of that $16 billion, it will pay $8 billion from its own cash and borrow the rest. RAILS RALLY BNSF shares were up 28.4 percent to $97.65 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Among its rivals, Union Pacific shares gained 5.7 percent to $58.18, Norfolk Southern jumped 5.7 percent to $49.30, and CSX Corp was up nearly 7 percent to $45.80. Canadian rail shares also rallied. "We'll have more people moving more goods 10, 20, 30 years from now," Buffett, Berkshire chairman and CEO, said on CNBC television. "I just believe this country will prosper." He said he was not interested in buying the rest of BNSF rival Union Pacific. He said he expected the companies to remain rivals for the next half century. "We won't be making any huge deals for a while," he told CNBC. "I made (BNSF CEO Matt Rose) an offer and he said he would take it to his board and it took about 15 minutes." BNSF, with its Western presence, is a key shipper of Asian goods into the interior of the United States and is the leading shipper of coal and agricultural commodities, according to analysts at Robert W. Baird. About a third of BNSF's revenue comes from intermodal freight -- containers that can be moved from ship to rail or truck -- 23 percent from coal and 19 percent from farm goods. The deal makes Fort Worth, Texas-based BNSF the most valuable U.S. railroad by market capitalization. By comparison, Union Pacific has a market cap of about $28 billion, while Norfolk Southern and CSX are each worth about $17 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data. BNSF's 2008 revenue of $18 billion was tops among U.S. railroads, about $1 billion ahead of its nearest rival, Union Pacific. Los Angeles-based money manager Capital Group Cos, which oversees the $780 billion American Funds family of mutual funds, is likely one of the big winners in the deal. The firm's fund unit held 23.2 million BNSF shares, or a 7 percent stake, as of June 30, according to data collected by Thomson Reuters. The firm was the largest shareholder after Buffett. BETTING ON THE FUTURE OF COAL Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the deal was a bet on the future of coal as a source of energy. "Because Burlington Northern moves coal around the country, I think Buffett is trying to get into coal but doing it in a cheaper way," he said. "It's leveraged against coal's demand without actually having to buy the commodity itself." Some analysts said the deal did not necessarily signal a wave of mergers and acquisitions in railroads. "For an outsider to make an acquisition of a railroad or invest a significant amount in a railroad -- you may see more people get interested in that possibility," said George Van Horn, senior analyst with market research firm IBISWorld. "But as far as seeing railroad themselves merging, I wouldn't expect that right away," he said. Berkshire said the 50-for-1 split of its Class B shares, which is subject to shareholder approval, would make it easier for smaller BNSF shareholders to swap their stock for Berkshire stock. Class B shares were up 1.5 percent to $3,313.50 in early trading. Buffett, one of the world's richest men and one of its most revered investors, is known for making big long-term bets. He wrote in The New York Times in October 2008 that he had been buying American stocks in his personal account, a few weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers set off worldwide selling. "Fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," Buffett wrote at the time. (Reporting by Nick Zieminski; Additional reporting by Angela Moon, Christopher Kaufman, David Gaffen, Paritosh Bansal, Aaron Pressman, Ryan Vlastelica, Helen Chernikoff and Jonathan Stempel; editing by John Wallace) |
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