银行在未来年份可能很赚钱

美国政府对金融机腹的救助，除了两房有可能给政府带来亏损之外，剩下的就看美国国际集团了。对于两大汽车巨头的救助，完全是政治较量的结果，服务的是政治目的，得益的是那些不愿意花时间和精力好好学习就赚大钱的就业工人。结果，自然就是我们这些纳税人的亏损了。对于这种不公平，我们只能通过政治斗争争取自己的权利来实现。

按照目前的计算，两大汽车公司和两房可能给咱们带来的亏损大概在890亿美元。政府在花旗的投资看来是会大赚的。最近，花旗股票一直在高歌猛进。而且，在美国国际集团的投资估计也会是收益不错，该公司的股价也在小步前进。

那厶，作为“失败者”的纳税人，你是可以作为成功的投资者，在股市将钱赚回来的。怎厶个赚法？就是在那些得益的公司身上加码嘛。

金融危机之后，美国的金融系统更加垄断，金融机腹将有更好的机会获得更多的垄断利润。得益者将会是那些银行和“投资银行”。

再者，这几天，两房的股价也在高歌猛进，大家可以注意一下。下面这篇文章，对于政府救助的效果进行了分析。有不错的参考价值。

附录∶The bailouts worked, and that's the problem

12:01 AM ET 4/13/10 | Marketwatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The good news is that the bailouts worked. The bad news is the bailouts worked.

The Treasury Department now estimates the taxpayers' loss on federal bailout programs will be $89 billion, or about a third of the more than $250 billion projected in previous estimates. The new estimate by the Congressional Budget Office puts the loss at less than 1% of gross domestic product and less than 3.2% of GDP the savings and loan crisis cost U.S. taxpayers 20 years ago.

American International Group Inc. (AIG) and Citigroup Inc. (C) have stabilized to the point the government may try to cash out on its investments in the next year, and General Motors is cruising down a similar path toward an initial public offering that could make the government whole.

Though it's not included in the estimate, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) continue to pump money into the mortgage market, but the outlays have been less than expected and the government is considering plans to unwind their portfolios. Read story on government's plans for Fannie, Freddie.

But before either the Bush administration, which began the bailout policy, or the Obama administration, which made it bigger, claims credit, they may want to consider the legacy that these bailouts have created.

In the auto industry, the $79.7 billion given to prop up General Motors, GMAC, Chrysler and Chrysler Financial Services has extended an industry favoritism that began with the government loan guarantees extended to Chrysler in 1979.

For Detroit, there is no too-big-to-fail legislation being considered, just reassurance that the government will come to the rescue should the automakers stumble again.

On Wall Street, financial reform is the topic du jour and yes, creating a provision for banks too big to fail is part of the legislation. But a closer look suggests the powerful bank lobby will spend and threaten lawmakers into submission.

Bailed-out Wall Street banks have become more powerful through concentration. Just a few banks, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) now control a combined $7.34 trillion in assets and $3.57 trillion in deposits -- 56% and 39% of all U.S. assets and deposits respectively, according to SNL Financial.

Mortgaging the bailout

These banks have made great strides toward a return to profitability, but much of the profits have come on the backs of customers who are being charged higher interest rates for credit cards and loans.

Nowhere are the numbers so striking as in the mortgage market which is supposed to be getting a boost from government-backed loan-modification programs. The main program, Hope Now, reported 148,000 modifications in February. Turns out that was just a tiny part of the problem. Hope Now estimates there are 4 million loans in default.

Moreover, the problem may be worsening. The total U.S. loan delinquency rate stood at 10.2% at the end of February and non current loans, which include foreclosures, were at 13.5%, up 21% from the same period last year, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. More than 1.1 million loans that were current at the start of January were at least 30-days past due by the end of February, LPS said.

Who stands to gain? Well, banks that have already written down the value of many loans are now pressing ahead with foreclosures to recover assets.

The mortgage markets aren't the only place where the squeeze is on. Rates for depositors have sunk to 1% or lower. Credit is still hard to get.

Many credit card issuers raised rates in anticipation of the Credit Card Reform Act which went into effect in February. The national average APR is 14.7%, up from 12.55% six months ago. The average APR for consumers with poor credit is now 20.17%, up from 14.29% six months ago, according to CreditCards.com.

Who benefited?

In the end, it all fits nicely. A banking system we were told by the likes of former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that was too important to Main Street to fail, has not only survived, but become more powerful.

It's making its recovery not just through a bailout that's a burden to taxpayers but by squeezing its customers who have fewer choices than ever before.

And Detroit? The jury is still out on that one, but time will tell if the bailout was just a one-time phenomenon or the start of a cycle we go through every few years.

So yes, the bailouts have worked. They've worked for the beneficiaries: the bankers, the traders, the assembly-line workers and management teams that seem incapable of learning from their mistakes. They've worked for two administrations by keeping money and influence flowing to Washington. And they've worked for those of us who were able to hang on to our homes and our jobs directly or indirectly through the spending.

But chances are either you or someone you know isn't getting the benefits. Maybe they're in foreclosure or struggling with credit card debt. For them, there could have been some small comfort in knowing the system was held accountable instead of preserved and made more menacing.

You should get more for $89 billion.