| 汪翔：谷歌的挑战与机会 |
| 送交者: 汪翔 2010年04月14日07:58:23 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话 |
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谷歌的挑战与机会 这几天，谷歌的股价一路高歌猛进，让投资者既高兴又担心。几天之后的盈利报告在不少人看来会非常不错。再说，这段时间，多数公司给出的报告都比市场的预期要好。美国经济似乎真的是开始复兴了， 而且还来得比人们预期的要快、要好。 在这种背景下，标准普给予谷歌四个星的推荐待遇。从市场的反应看，似乎也认可这种估计。不过，冷静的投资者也在开始反思谷歌的所做所为，和它将不得不面临的更为激烈的竞争环境。在这种环境下生存，它居然还可以置成长快速，潜力无限的中国市场而不顾，这则在一定程度上表明，作为一家网络巨人，他是不是有点头脑过热，开始有点不知天高地厚了？ 如果你注意一下历史，就会发现，很多历史上曾经不可一世的公司，就是因为这种“不谦虚”而导致自己最终败落的。当年的K—Mart如此，王安如此，AT&T如此，今后也还会有大量的公司会如此。 反观微软这位科技界的巨人，它的长期持久成功，倒是得益于它自己的危机意识。昨天晚上还看了MSNBC播放的关于微软和比尔·盖茨的故事片，那种持续的以事业为主导，以公司的长远发展为主轴的心态，才是让它一直强大的根源。 谷歌呀，如果你自大，你败落的时刻也会 你不远了。一家百年老店的打造和长期繁荣，光靠运气是远远不够的。美国国际集团也是一个很好的例子。 附录∶Google Investors Weigh Search Giant's Growing Challenges 4/14/10 | Dow Jones By Scott MorrisonSAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--Google Inc. (GOOG) faces a host of challenges, including deep-pocketed competitors, increasingly vigilant U.S. and European regulators, and prickly authorities in China. The Internet search giant's difficulties have not been lost on another key group: Investors. On the business front, social network Facebook Inc. looms as an attractive alternative for Google's advertising customers. Apple Inc. (AAPL) appears set to clash with Google in the mobile advertising market. Governments are also a problem for Google. Regulators are paying close attention to just about every deal it makes and a tense stand-off with China has many investors concerned the Mountain View, Calif.-based company may have limited its options in the world's largest Internet market. The combination of challenges has prompted some investors to reconsider a stock they once considered a must-buy. Though it remains the dominant company in its core business--it has about 75% of the U.S. Internet search advertising market--many investors are skeptical Google can find new revenue streams to deliver the kind of earnings growth that has made it a stock market favorite since 2004. "They have to go beyond being the search provider of choice," said Colin Gillis, an analyst at brokerage BGC Partners. "It's a much more competitive landscape now." Some investors are already acting on their concerns. Since the beginning of the year, Google shares have dropped 5%, while the broad market and rivals like Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) and Apple have risen. On Tuesday, shares rose 2.5%, to $586.77. Google declined to comment for this story. Few competitors loom like Facebook, the 400-million-member Palo Alto, Calif.-based social network that is rapidly approaching Google on a variety of user metrics. In March, Facebook topped Google in monthly page views, grabbing 49 billion to Google's 46 billion, according to comScore. That audience has already attracted 83 of the top 100 U.S. advertisers to Facebook. Google attempts to build social networking platforms haven't gained traction. Recently, its Google Buzz service generated a firestorm of controversy when it erroneously exposed people's personal contacts on the Internet. Meanwhile, Apple is establishing itself as the company to beat in the nascent mobile market, where Google is hoping to expand its search primacy. Apple's iPhone has sold more than 50 million units, compared with about 7 million units for phones running Google's Android operating system. Worse still, Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple last week unveiled a new advertising platform, dubbed iAd, that could challenge Google's search-based model. Of course, few investors are concerned about Google's core search advertising business. Its strengths will likely be evident on Thursday, when the company is expected to report first quarter earnings of $6.58 a share, up from $5.16 a year earlier. Net revenue is expected to be $4.94 billion, up from $4.1 billion. Google supporters argue the company's growth rates will once again ramp up this year as it rolls out new ad formats and online ad spending recovers. They also point out that many of Google's emerging market opportunities will take time to play out--and that it has some $25 billion in cash and a wealth of brain power to throw at any problem. On the other hand, Google's expansion plans appear increasingly likely to run into oppositions from regulators, who appear likely to challenge the company's proposed $750 million acquisition of mobile ad group AdMob. Another key concern has been Google's feud with China. After complaining it was hit by a cyberattack originating in China, Google shut down its mainland search engine and routed its traffic through Hong Kong to evade censorship. Some investors downplay the move, suggesting Google can remain a player in China. Others say Chinese authorities are unlikely to forgive or forget Google's move and they could effectively lock the company out of the world's largest and fastest-growing Internet market. "It was a major strategic blunder," said Ironfire Capital LLC founder Eric Jackson, who late last year sold his firm's Google shares to buy Apple. "How can you walk away from what will be the biggest market in the world in five years?" |
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