金子还是股票：Stansberry PK Buffett

以现今美国的经济形势来看，投资金银与投资股票，孰优孰劣？金融投资领域里有两种截然不同的观点，以Porter Stansberry和 Warren Buffett为代表。下面是两个例子。

例1：Porter Stansberry: 50% gold, 50% cash

Porter Stansberry在最近的一个名为The End of America的商业广告片中称美元将不断贬值，美国金融系统将要崩溃、社会将出现动乱（见http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI-BIVWlc7A）。网友白凡对此提供了中文编译文本； 详见博文《盛世危言：美国的末日来到了吗？（一）》。

Stansberry呼吁人们赶紧买黄金白银。他建议投资者持有50%的黄金、50%的货币，借以保值抗通膨、度过危机。（见http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_debt_122920102）。

Stansberry的演讲与一系列评论文章代表了长期以来美国投资界一部分人的观点，并非今天才出现。例如，投资评论家Dan Ferris在一篇评论中就说，The "End of America" Is Nearing, Buy and Hold Gold。（http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25588.html）。

例2：Warren Buffett: Forget gold, buy stocks

下面是财富杂志资深记者Ben Stein于2010年10月访问Warren Buffett时的一个片段。

FORTUNE -- The first thing I notice on my most recent visit with Warren E. Buffett, who recently turned 80, is how incredible he looks. He would look terrific for 50; for 80, he looks like Charles Atlas. He's modest about it, as he is about everything. "It all works great," he says. "The eyes, the hearing -- everything works great ... which it will until it all falls apart."

The second thing you notice is that he is so smart it curls your hair.

My first question, as I sit there on the couch in his office, is: "What about gold? Is this a classic bubble or what?"

"Look," he says, with his usual confident laugh. "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

Okay, so gold is not a screaming buy to Buffett. What should a typical upper-middle-class person in the U.S. buy to prepare for retirement?

"Equities," Buffett answers without a moment's hesitation.

（http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm）

Stansberry呼吁买黄金，Buffett强调买股票，到底谁对谁错？个人认为没有对错之分，而是对美国经济前景的不同预测而已。Stansberry等人的宣传有一定价值，既美国在世界上的主宰地位今不如昔，美国人民必须重新思考生活方式。然而，本人对美国经济的缓慢复苏充满信心，在投资方面更倾向于长期持有股票的指数基金。少量的持有黄金（5%的总投资量）不是不可以。

当然，如何投资是见仁见智的事。欢迎网友评论指教。