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对能源股的看法(英文)
送交者: MichaelMeng 2005年09月19日21:31:03 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话


I partially agree that the energy stocks have had a great run, and its run might slow down to some extent. However, while we can say that the easy money has been made with energy stocks this time, it is very different from previous cycles. The key point here is that all previous cycles' energy prices increases were caused by supply problems, yet this time it is caused by the exceptional growth in the demand. On the on hand, the demand from India and China is still relatively small compared to that from the USA, but the net increase is enough to tip the existing balance of the world supply/demand. This increae may be also slow a little both in India and China, but it will still GROW. On the supply side, while OPEC and other oil exporting countries claim that there are a plenty of reserve under the ground, they ignored the fact that the light crude reserve is dropping. The balance is barely maintained by the increases in heavy crude reserve. Even with today's technologies, the cost of using heavy crude remains a burden for most countries. In addition, the oil rich region - Middle East - remains a hot spot in the world. This pushes the energy companies to look around to more secured land of opportunities. This is why the Canadien sand oil has found its new lust. I will say that selectively within energy plays, oil services and sand oil companies have a much longer run to go. My picks - ECA and RIG. If you want to play it safely, try Fidelity's natural gas select fund - FNAGX. Good luck!

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