巴菲特看好美國經濟復甦

2009年11月3日，巴菲特宣布，將兼併美國鐵路公司，並且付價慷慨。說明他對美國經濟的復甦懷有很高的預期。鐵路運輸業務的提升，是經濟繁榮的必然結果，也只有在經濟繁榮時，運輸業才有好的盈利結果。

問題是，在人們依然擔心，危機還將再度回頭的時刻，巴菲特注入巨資收購一家必須依賴經濟繁榮才能獲得好投資回報的公司，這種逆市而行的舉動，令不少人不得不，從不同的角度，審視一下已經有的經濟數�啤�

巴菲特對於擁有已經“過時”運輸手段公司的購買，說明他預期美國的經濟繁榮還會持續很久。也就是說，美國不可能就此敗落，中國和印度經濟的發展，不可能對美國經濟帶來致命性的打擊。巴菲特是買了就不會再賣出的，他應該是已經算好了這家公司的“現值”的，而且還是在有着很高的安全邊際的前提下的投資決策。

如果歷史有什厶借鑑意義的話，很可能，美國經濟在半年之後就會有很明顯、很穩定的復甦結果。在CITI破產，帶給人們對於商業不動產方面的擔憂的第二天，就出現了巴菲特的視而不見的“頑固”舉動，也是一個很有意思的事情。

有時候，解讀股市和股市上高手的動作，和看圍棋比賽的感覺也差不到哪裡去。在這裡，也有不少的人在幫助你解讀各位高手的走棋意義，並且，人們還在藉此來預測他們下一步的動作，和已有動作的可能結果。

金融市場就是一個博弈市場，不同於圍棋棋盤上的戰鬥，這裡有着更多的靈活性和可比性。關於金融危機中金融市場的博弈特色，諸位可得大方一點，在《博弈時代》明年初出版之後，捧捧場。（《博弈時代》∶汪翔 著， 人民出版社，即將出版）那本書相當於是一本“棋譜”，講解了金融危機這個大棋盤中的一場大對壘。至於對不對，那就看各個人的理解角度了。（2009年11月4日）

【附錄；相關新聞原文】

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc will pay $26 billion to buy out railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp in what the billionaire investor called a bet on the U.S. economy.

The deal, Buffett's biggest-ever acquisition, is priced at a premium of 31.5 percent over BNSF's closing stock price on Monday and values the railroad at $34 billion.

"It's an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States," Buffett said in a statement, adding that railroads are key to the U.S. economy and will benefit as recovery takes hold. "I love these bets."

To help ease the way for the deal, Berkshire's board approved a 50-for-1 split of the company's Class B common stock, its first split ever under Buffett.

Berkshire will pay $100 per share in cash and stock for the 77.4 percent of BNSF shares it does not already own. Berkshire will also assume $10 billion of BNSF debt. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2010.

The deal comes as the U.S. economy is beginning to recover from its worst downturn since World War II. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the first quarterly growth in more than a year.

BNSF, which operates in the U.S. West and Midwest, said in September it was seeing an uptick in freight volume and was encouraged by an improvement in consumer-related markets.

U.S. railroads in recent years have invested in new technology and improved the efficiency of operations, while arguing their method of transport is cheaper and cleaner than shipping goods by truck.

Observers questioned whether Buffett will have to sell his holdings in other railroads to win regulatory approval for the BNSF deal. Berkshire had a 1.9 percent stake in Union Pacific Corp, or 9.56 million shares, as of June 30, and a 0.5 percent stake in Norfolk Southern Corp, or 1.93 million shares, according to Thomson Reuters data.

"For the market, it can be seen as a sign of confidence (about the economy)," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York. "Berkshire is seeing way past some impending economic recovery signs now and looking into the future," he said.

Berkshire will pay about $16 billion in cash and the rest in stock. Of that $16 billion, it will pay $8 billion from its own cash and borrow the rest.

RAILS RALLY

BNSF shares were up 28.4 percent to $97.65 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Among its rivals, Union Pacific shares gained 5.7 percent to $58.18, Norfolk Southern jumped 5.7 percent to $49.30, and CSX Corp was up nearly 7 percent to $45.80. Canadian rail shares also rallied.

"We'll have more people moving more goods 10, 20, 30 years from now," Buffett, Berkshire chairman and CEO, said on CNBC television. "I just believe this country will prosper."

He said he was not interested in buying the rest of BNSF rival Union Pacific. He said he expected the companies to remain rivals for the next half century.

"We won't be making any huge deals for a while," he told CNBC. "I made (BNSF CEO Matt Rose) an offer and he said he would take it to his board and it took about 15 minutes."

BNSF, with its Western presence, is a key shipper of Asian goods into the interior of the United States and is the leading shipper of coal and agricultural commodities, according to analysts at Robert W. Baird.

About a third of BNSF's revenue comes from intermodal freight -- containers that can be moved from ship to rail or truck -- 23 percent from coal and 19 percent from farm goods.

The deal makes Fort Worth, Texas-based BNSF the most valuable U.S. railroad by market capitalization. By comparison, Union Pacific has a market cap of about $28 billion, while Norfolk Southern and CSX are each worth about $17 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data.

BNSF's 2008 revenue of $18 billion was tops among U.S. railroads, about $1 billion ahead of its nearest rival, Union Pacific.

Los Angeles-based money manager Capital Group Cos, which oversees the $780 billion American Funds family of mutual funds, is likely one of the big winners in the deal.

The firm's fund unit held 23.2 million BNSF shares, or a 7 percent stake, as of June 30, according to data collected by Thomson Reuters. The firm was the largest shareholder after Buffett.

BETTING ON THE FUTURE OF COAL

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the deal was a bet on the future of coal as a source of energy.

"Because Burlington Northern moves coal around the country, I think Buffett is trying to get into coal but doing it in a cheaper way," he said. "It's leveraged against coal's demand without actually having to buy the commodity itself."

Some analysts said the deal did not necessarily signal a wave of mergers and acquisitions in railroads.

"For an outsider to make an acquisition of a railroad or invest a significant amount in a railroad -- you may see more people get interested in that possibility," said George Van Horn, senior analyst with market research firm IBISWorld.

"But as far as seeing railroad themselves merging, I wouldn't expect that right away," he said.

Berkshire said the 50-for-1 split of its Class B shares, which is subject to shareholder approval, would make it easier for smaller BNSF shareholders to swap their stock for Berkshire stock. Class B shares were up 1.5 percent to $3,313.50 in early trading.

Buffett, one of the world's richest men and one of its most revered investors, is known for making big long-term bets. He wrote in The New York Times in October 2008 that he had been buying American stocks in his personal account, a few weeks after the collapse of Lehman Brothers set off worldwide selling.

"Fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," Buffett wrote at the time.

(Reporting by Nick Zieminski; Additional reporting by Angela Moon, Christopher Kaufman, David Gaffen, Paritosh Bansal, Aaron Pressman, Ryan Vlastelica, Helen Chernikoff and Jonathan Stempel; editing by John Wallace)