【社會觀察(3)】



截止 2009 年 7 月底，中國持有的美國國債數量已超過八千零五億美元。美國向中國借了這麼多錢，會不會賴賬不還？溫家寶說：我確實有些擔心。中國金融官員說：沒事兒，我們還要繼續增持美國國債。今天看到網上有人說：中國的八千億美元鐵定完蛋了，美國絕不會歸還，這是美國人親口說的。我不信，就去看了看到底美國人是咋說的。這是一個演講錄像，網址是：
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3915119166991168859#，
也可以在網頁 http://mises.org/story/3493 上看到。

演講者是美國歐洲太平洋資本有限公司的總裁彼得－希夫（Peter Schiff），演講是去年（2009年）7月12日在米塞斯研究院（Mises Institute）進行的。在這近一小時的錄像中，有三分鐘講到了中國購買美國國債的事，如果你沒有那麼多時間，就只看這三分鐘也可以：從 40 分 30 秒開始到 43 分 40 秒的片斷。從彼得－希夫的演講中看到，他確確實實地明確說明了美國絕不會償還從中國借的錢，理由是中國人在放高利貸。你們明知我們還不了，還借給我們那麼多錢，你是白痴你怨誰？不僅如此，我們還要倒打一耙，你們放高利貸，給我們套上債務枷鎖，我們要改變遊戲規則，借錢就是不還，不還白不還！

除了震驚之外，我想知道彼得－希夫到底是何許人也？他說不還就不還啦？他能代表美國政府嗎？

彼得－希夫（Peter Schiff）有自己的博客（http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/），還有一個用於競選參議員的網站（http://schiffforsenate.com/），專門為自己宣傳。彼得－希夫今年 46 歲，金融經濟專家，已出版三本書，曾在 2006 年成功預測美國的房市危機和金融危機，並在 2008 年的總統競選中擔任總統候選人 Ron Paul 的經濟顧問。從 1996 年起，彼得－希夫一直擔任歐洲太平洋資本有限公司的總裁。從他的經歷看，希夫是美國典型的成功商人和經濟精英。他在演講中闡述的觀點雖然不能算美國政府的立場，但確實代表了美國經濟精英和社會中堅的真實想法。至於美國政府對中國大量購買美國國債的真實觀點，外人只能猜測。

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附錄：彼得－希夫演講的全文和錄像放在米塞斯研究院的如下網頁
http://mises.org/story/3493，其中有關中國購買美國國債的片斷有三分鐘，譯文和原文附在下面：

[譯文]——你知道，昨天中國領導人公開表示對借給我們的錢“有些”擔憂，說“有可能”我們還不了。我想他們不只是“有些”擔憂，這只是公開說法，想象一下他們私下會怎麼看？他們一定知道我們不會還這筆錢，不可能給中國人還這筆錢，這是絕對不可能的。

[原文] Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won't pay them back. I'm sure they're a lot more than just a little concerned, because that's what they said publicly. Imagine what they're saying privately.

Because they know we're not going to pay them back. Of course we're not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It's impossible. We can't. We can't possibly.

[譯文]——想象一下，某天總統奧巴馬，對着數萬億美國民眾，發表一次公開的電視演說。他這樣說道：

“親愛的美國同胞們，今天非常不幸地，我給你們帶來了一個壞消息。政府決定對美國普通民眾大幅加稅；那些仍然沒有失業的人，將為此支付更高的個人所得稅；政府將全面削減社會福利，仍然沒有實施的各種福利措施將徹底取消；我原先制定的所有計劃，包括全民教育、醫療保障、自主能源，所有這些計劃將被無限期擱置。因為中國人要我們還錢！我們借的實在是太多了，全世界婦孺皆知。欠債還錢，天經地義。所以我們必須勒緊褲腰帶給中國人還錢！”

[原文] Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.

He'll give a national televised address and say, "My fellow Americans, I've got a little news for you today. We're going to have to have a massive, across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job is going to have to pay much higher income taxes.

"And, as a matter of fact, we're going to have to cut Social Security across the board. Forget the Social Security check, we're going to have to reduce it. And remember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence, we got to put all those plans on hold, because the Chinese need their money.

"We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we're good for our debts. They worked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we're going to pay it back. And that's going to require a big sacrifice on our part."

[譯文]——大家認為這樣的事可能發生嗎？別開玩笑了。

我們更應該對中國人說：“你們是食利者！放高利貸者！我們需要修改遊戲規則，我們要打破債務枷鎖！你們明知我們還不了，還借給我們那麼多錢！這不是我們的錯！”

[原文] Does anyone think that we're going to do that? What are they, kidding me?

Do you know what we're going to tell the Chinese? We're going to say, "You guys are predators, predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need a cramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can't pay it back. It's not our fault."

[譯文]——中國人自己很清楚，他們無法參與我們的政治選舉，我們為什麼還要在意中國人怎麼想？華盛頓難道會得罪選民，去取悅非選民？

[原文] The Chinese know this. The Chinese, they can't even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think? We're going to tax voters to pay non-voters?

[譯文]——中國人很清楚，我們不可能還他們錢，這和伯尼－麥道夫的騙局是同一個道理。別人借我們錢，我們是怎麼還的？——再去借新債。

[原文] So the Chinese know they're in this box. The US government, we don't pay our bills. We're like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.

[譯文]——麥道夫早期的客戶確實能把錢要回來，為什麼？因為麥道夫仍然在吸收新錢，騙那些還不知道這是龐氏騙局的人入會。財政部也在做同樣的事情，國債到期了怎麼辦？——再把它賣給其他人。需要支付利息怎麼辦？——照借不誤。如果有一天誰也不願再買我們的國債了，那就只能違約，和麥道夫一樣。違約只有兩條途徑，要麼直接宣布不還，要麼印錢。這就是這些債務唯一可能的結局，反正它們不可能被償還。中國人當然知道這一切，我們很快就會明白。

[原文] If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money, they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. They found another sucker who didn't know it was a Ponzi scheme.

Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures, we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt, we go borrow that too. Well, it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money, then we're going to have to default, just like Bernie did.

And there's only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don't pay, or we print money. That's it. There's only two ways to repudiate your debt. There's no way we're going to pay the debt; the Chinese have to know that, and we're going to figure that out.
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伍加，2010年2月5日