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花街开始放风还是媒体炒做 美联储干预措施可导致“闪电崩盘”?
送交者: 荷塘晓月 2010年10月12日16:08:19 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话

花街开始放风了还是仅仅媒体炒做?

分析师称美联储干预措施可能导致“闪电崩盘”

2010年10月11日 21:05

[世华财讯]分析师称美联储干预措施可能导致"闪电崩盘",因其给市场带来干扰、无法令实体经济真正受益,并对美元价值造成了破坏。

综合媒体10月11日报道,嘉诚资本(Cazenove Capital)分析师格里菲斯(Robin Griffiths)表示,由于美联储采取的流动性提振措施,股票市场有再次“闪电崩盘(flash crash)”的风险。

格里菲斯称,美联储近期采取的措施并未令他获得任何信心。实际上,他认为市场未来可能会再次谈论闪电崩盘问题。

根据格里菲斯的说法,美元走弱意味着欧洲投资者应对买入美元资产持谨慎态度,并且过去10年投资者本应明确这一点。他表示,假若投资者在过去10年的任何阶段买入了美元资产,目前其资产价值已经下降了54%。

格里菲斯称,美联储用来控制金融体系短期货币供给的永久性公开市场操作(Permanent Open Market Operations,POMOs)正在干扰正常市场。

美联储已经暗示其愿意向系统注入更多流动性,以进一步刺激经济增长,并同时将位于创记录低点的利率再延长一段时间。

格里菲斯表示,这种情况已经发生过了,那就是2007年。在2007年,市场于9月份大幅上扬15%,延续至10月16日,随后发生了崩盘,摧毁了部分全球规模最大的金融机构。他认为美联储所采取的流动性措施正冒着重演上述毁灭性时期的风险。

越来越多的市场观察员已经暗示,美联储的量化宽松举措不会令实体经济受益。Sarasin & Partners的CIO兼管理合伙人Guy Monson表示,流动性令投资市场膨胀,但几乎不会带来其他益处。Old Broad Street Research投资主管Peter Toogood则表示,更多的流动性并不能提振银行借款,而后者能够改善综合经济形势。

格里菲斯还指出,通过令美元贬值,公开市场操作已经提振了美元计价资产类别,例如标准普尔500指数与黄金。因为美元相对价值的下降,此类市场似乎正在创造新的史上高点,但事实并非只是如此。

假若通过其他货币来计算标准普尔指数,例如欧元,该指数自9月9日升至顶峰之后一直处于下降趋势。格里菲斯称,现在的情况是这样的:美联储一边推动股票市场走高,一边以更快的速度破坏美元;因此市场无法攀升。
 
格里菲斯还表示,尽管黄金最近数周录入了创记录的美元价格新高,假若根据其他货币进行计算,黄金实际上并未升至新高,并且市场过度买入黄金,黄金因此可能进入整合期。

    Van Eck International Gold Fund的投资经历Joe Foster则表示,黄金价格大幅上扬导致众多投资者入市,但市场可能不会在毫无阻碍的情况下延续上扬趋势。他认为黄金在未来两年内将升至1,700美元/盎司,但短期内可能下挫。
 
与此同时,除美国的新兴市场资产以外,美联储向市场注入的流动性同样有一部分意外受益者,比如印度的Sensex指数便因此获得了提振。

(王洋 编译)
Fed Intervention Could Lead to 'Flash Crash': Strategist
 
Published: Monday, 11 Oct 2010
 
By: Robin Knight
CNBC Associate Web Producer

The stock market is at risk of another flash crash because of the Federal Reserve's liquidity-boosting measures, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.

"I'm not gaining any confidence from what the Fed has been doing here. I actually think you're going to be talking about a flash cash — they've set it up, we're vulnerable to another one," Griffiths said.

Dollar weakness means that European investors should be cautious of buying into dollar assets and should have been clear for the past decade, according to Griffiths.

"If we had at any stage in the last ten years bought America, we would be down 54 percent at this moment. It really is for losers," he said.

The Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations POMOs, which control the supply of short-term money into the financial system, are distorting the normal market seasonality, according to Griffiths.

The central bank has signaled its willingness to pump more money into the system in a bid to further stimulate growth, in addition to keeping interest rates at a record low for an extended period.

"This has happened before and you'll easily remember the last time this has happened because it was 2007. In 2007 the market rallied 15 percent in September, carried on to the 16th of October and then crashed, wiping out some of the world's largest financial institutions," he said.

Griffiths thinks that current liquidity measures from the central bank are risking a re-run of that devastating period.

A growing number of market watchers have suggested that the Fed's quantitative easing moves won't benefit the actual economy. Guy Monson, managing partner & CIO of Sarasin & Partners, told CNBC that the liquidity is inflating investment markets, but giving little other benefit.

Peter Toogood, head of investment at Old Broad Street Research, said that more liquidity isn't helping to boost bank lending, which could improve general economic conditions.

Gold Record Highs?

Griffiths also pointed out that the open market operations had boosted dollar-denominated assets classes, such as the S&P 500 cnbc_comboQuoteMove('popup_.SPX_ID0ELIAC15839609'); [.SPX  1169.77    4.45  (+0.38%)   ] cnbc_quoteComponent_init_getData(".SPX","WSODQ_COMPONENT_.SPX_ID0ELIAC15839609","WSODQ","true","ID0ELIAC15839609","off","false","inLineQuote"); and gold cnbc_comboQuoteMove('popup_XAU=X_ID0ESNAC15839609'); [XAU=X  1351.8    2.20  (+0.16%) , by reducing the value of the greenback. Because of the falling relative value of the dollar, such markets appeared to be making new all-time highs, but this was not always the case.

If the S&P were to be calculated in another currency such as the euro, then the index actually peaked on the 9th of September and has been in a downtrend ever since, he said.

"What's happening is the Fed is juicing its (stock) market up, but it's destroying the dollar at a quicker rate; the market can't rise," Griffiths said.

Gold is in fact not at a new high if calculated in other currencies, despite posting record dollar price tags in recent weeks, and is overbought and could be due for a period of consolidation, he added.

The strong rally in gold prices has led many investors to jump into the precious metal, but the market may not continue upwards without problems. Joe Foster, portfolio manager at Van Eck International Gold Fund, told CNBC that gold will reach $1,700 within 2 years, but could fall in the short term.

Meanwhile, the Fed's liquidity is having some unintended beneficiaries outside of the U.S. Emerging market assets, such as India's Sensex index, are getting a boost from the Fed's liquidity.

 
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