1. 2016 Electoral Map Final Results

Trump won 306 total electoral votes

Note: Maine does not have winner-take-all

2. My Prediction on Nov 4, 2016

我对下周二美帝世纪总统大选的预测-~一图顶万字 送交者: 望乡 2016年11月04日21:41:12 于 [茗香茶语] 发送悄悄话

In my prediction, Trump would win 309 votes.  My Forecast Error in electoral votes won by Trump = (309-306)=+3(over forecast votes) Relative error ~=1%     Number of states wrongly predicted: 3 + some districts in Maine

3. Final Tally of Electoral Map Forecasts--Consesus Electoral Map

Aggregating the forecasts, and then placing them in categories, we end up with this consensus map.  Note that these aren't averages. For example, only states called 'safe' by 14 or 15 pundits are shown in the darkest color below.

Trump would lose by winning only 216 votes. 

Forecast Error in electoral votes won by Trump = (216-306)=-90 (under forecast votes)

Relative error ~=-90/306 = 29% 

   Number of states wrongly predicted: 6 (FL, NC, PA, MI,WI, IA)