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說給陳啟宗博士，不要悲觀絕望 而是創造未來

  李洪德  2025年1月19日 於加拿大

本文是利用YouTube提供的文字轉錄功能複製的英文翻譯而來。從陳啟宗博士對現實絕望的心境，可以感知它的理性，但是，長時間被西方文化的毒害，損傷智力，使他不探尋可行的出路，因而陷入絕望，以活躍的社會活動，掩蓋內心的煎熬。

本文希望為理性的陳啟宗博士提供建議，發揮它博學多才，廣泛的社會實踐積累的實用經驗，廣泛的國際人脈，對改變人類社會的治理模式，發揮積極的作用。

2024年12月23日 YouTube視頻

Ronnie C. Chan: The Past, Present, and Future of U.S.-China Relations 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR7oBjO7D9I 

2024年12月2日，香港恒隆地產榮譽主席、亞洲協會名譽主席陳啟宗與哥倫比亞大學韋瑟黑德東亞研究所所長阮連恆，就2024年美國總統大選對未來中美關係和全球穩定的影響進行了交談。哥倫比亞大學代理校長卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗和大學教授傑弗里·薩克斯作了開場發言。韋瑟黑德東亞研究所是哥倫比亞大學對現代和當代東亞、東南亞和東亞內務的研究中心。

哥倫比亞大學校長卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗博士，哥倫比亞大學傑弗里·薩克斯教授，韋瑟黑德東亞研究所的學者，都讚賞在百年前，哥倫比亞大學就被中國政府選做學習榜樣，接納處於西方列強掠奪和殺戮絕望困境的清政府為自救派遣的學童。

當年，清政府派遣120個12歲左右的學童到美國，很快闖過語言關，進入眾多大學學習。可是，這些孩子在美國所學，對改變中國被列強欺凌的困境，沒有幫助，反而是副作用。因為他們所學，恰恰是如今摧毀美國和西方的玩意兒。

可是，這些孩子在美國所學，對改變中國被列強欺凌的困境，沒有幫助，反而是副作用。因為他們所學，恰恰是如今摧毀美國和西方的玩意兒。

真正拯救中國的是毛澤東盡全力籌集資金，派往法國的年輕人，掌握馬克思主義共產主義思想，回國後，利用馬克思的思想拯救了中國。後來，在戰火中倖存下來的人，都成樂新中國建國領袖。

人類是群居動物，需要群聚互助生存。只有馬克思的共產主義思想建立的社會，才符合人類生存。

當年，馬克思和摯友恩格斯，被英國工業革命早期，資本貪婪掠奪導致勞工的悲慘生活觸動。在1867年出版的《資本論》第一卷中，馬克思一針見血地指出：資本來到世間，從頭到腳，每個毛孔都滴着血和骯髒的東西。如果有10%的利潤，資本就會保證到處被使用；有20%的利潤，資本就能活躍起來；有50%的利潤，資本就會鋌而走險；為了100%的利潤，資本就敢踐踏一切人間法律；有300%以上的利潤，資本就敢犯任何罪行，甚至去冒絞首的危險。

馬克思和恩格斯發起共產主義運動，過半數的世界國家捲入，老牌資本主義國家也進行了國有化，建立共產主義模式的社會福利體系，在英國，被稱為從搖籃到墳墓。

有人說，共產主義運動推動的國有化運動，幾乎消滅了資本主義。然而，如今，馬克思和他的共產主義主張已經被邪惡化為惡魔。把資本貪婪製造邪惡的行為美化為拯救人類世界。

最近，TikTak在宣揚言論自由的美國被禁，2025年1月13日，一夜之間，數萬TikTok難民擔心怯怯地湧進中國小紅書，沒成想受到熱烈歡迎，互相對生活賬本，西方人才發現，自己被民豬政客害慘，與中國人相比較，自己過的根本不是人的生活。

2023年10月30日，我曾經寫文章王滬寧的恐懼與努力 國魂爭奪之戰, 副標題：人類人性化的歷史及其對現實和未來的啟迪。2022年10月26日，我寫了文章《中國平安 是王滬寧在指導國策的制定》，啟迪於2021年美國Palladium雜誌刊登的文章 The Triumph and Terror of Wang Huning《王滬寧的勝利與恐懼》，作者N.S.Lyons是一位居住在美國華盛頓特區的分析師和作家，著有《劇變》一書-探索我們這個時代的共同劇變，包括技術和文化變革、吞噬西方的意識形態革命、中國的崛起以及自由主義危機：

中國政府監管機構加大打擊力度消除宣揚淫蕩生活方式的“低俗網紅”，並“解決網絡粉絲文化造成的混亂問題”，某些藝人也開始被禁音。那些模仿韓國男團明星女性化或雌雄同體美學的人-被形象地稱為“小鮮肉”-接下來將被淘汰，政府誓言“堅決杜絕娘娘腔男人”出現在電視節目中影響年輕人。

一波突如其來的新政府政策正在顛覆中國人的生活，官方媒體將其描述為國家的“深刻變革”。這一轉變被官方稱為中國國家主席習近平的“共同繁榮”運動，它沿着兩條平行線進行：對私營部門經濟進行大規模的監管打壓，以及自上而下重塑中國文化的更廣泛的道德努力。

但是，為什麼會發生這種“深刻轉變”呢？這是一個非常有權勢的人數十年思考和規劃的--王滬寧可以說是當今最有影響力的“公共知識分子”。

王滬寧是中共最頂尖的意識形態理論家，習近平每個標誌性的政治概念都是他提出來的，包括“中國夢”、反腐運動、“一帶一路”倡議、甚至“習近平思想”。王與中國歷史上的著名人物如諸葛亮和韓非（歷史學家稱後者為“中國的馬基雅維利”）相提並論，他們同樣在皇位背後擔任強大的戰略顧問和軍師 - 這一職位在中國文學中被稱為 “帝師”， 在西方，這樣的人物與特朗布萊、塔列朗、梅特涅、基辛格或弗拉基米爾·普京顧問弗拉迪斯拉夫·蘇爾科夫的傳統中的“灰色顯赫”一樣容易辨認。

王滬寧出版了近20本書和大量論文；其思想與當今中國正在發生的事情之間存在着明顯的連續性，說明北京是通過王滬寧的眼睛看世界。

就像改革開放之初那些令人興奮歲月中的許多人一樣，王仍然對自由主義能夠在中國發揮積極作用抱有希望，並寫下建議，可以允許“從體現現代民主和人文主義精神的現代結構的組成部分中找到紮根和成長所需的支持。”

然而，這種情況很快就發生了改變。在1988年，30歲的王滬寧以前所未有的速度成為復旦大學最年輕的正教授，以訪問學者的身份在美國度過了6個月，就像近代中國的托克維爾一樣遊歷了美國，他訪問了30多個城市和近20所大學。所見所聞得出一個結論,美國是個人主義，是自由主義；自由主義的泛濫和商品化，已經導致社會價值體系崩潰，社會價值體系崩潰了，難道制度還能夠保存嗎？

他的發現深深地困擾了他，永久地改變了他對西方及其思想後果的看法。

王將他的觀察記錄在一本回憶錄中，這本回憶錄後來成為他最著名的作品：1991年出版《美國對抗美國》。在書中，他驚嘆華盛頓特區街頭的無家可歸者營地、紐約和舊金山貧困黑人社區失控的毒品犯罪，以及已經融入並接管政府職責的公司。最終，他得出的結論是，美國面臨着由其社會矛盾造成的“不可遏止的危機暗流”，社會矛盾包括，貧富之間、白人與黑人之間、民主與寡頭權力之間、平等主義與階級特權之間、個人權利與集體責任之間、傳統文化極其現代化的溶劑之間。

他說，雖然美國人可以意識到他們面臨着“複雜的社會和文化問題”，但他們“傾向於將這些問題視為需要單獨解決的科學和技術問題”。他認為，這對他們毫無幫助，因為他們的問題實際上都是密不可分的，並且具有相同的根本原因：現代美國自由主義核心的激進、虛無主義的個人主義。他認為，歸根結底，當面對吸毒成癮等關鍵社會問題時，美國這個原子化的、被消滅的、萎靡不振的社會發現自己面臨着 “一個無法克服的問題”，因為它不再有任何連貫的概念基礎來發起任何抵抗。

總而言之，美國社會價值和道德體系的崩壞，導致社會治理體系的崩塌，美國從人類文明層面無解的崩潰。

1989年初回到中國，並晉升為復旦大學國際政治系主任，成為自由化的主要反對者。

他開始主張中國必須抵制全球自由主義的影響，成為一個文化統一、自信的國家，由一個強大的、中央集權的黨國統治。他將這些想法發展為後來被稱為中國的 “新威權主義”運動-儘管王從未使用過這個詞，從未將自己等同於中國的“新保守派”。這反映了他希望將馬克思主義社會主義與中國傳統儒家價值觀、法家政治思想、西方國家主權和權力的最高主義思想以及民族主義相融合，以合成不受西方自由主義影響的長期穩定和增長的新基礎。

從現在中國互聯網上數以百萬計的自鳴得意的觀點來看，王對美國解體的黑暗願景無異於預言。當他們把目光投向美國時，他們不再將自由民主的燈塔視為令人欽佩的美好未來的象徵。這就是對那些創造了著名的“民主女神”的人的印象，女神把紙漿火把高舉在和平天堂的門前。而是王滬寧眼中的美國：去工業化、農村衰敗、過度金融化、資產價格失控以及自我延續的食利精英；科技壟斷企業粉碎任何在政府範圍之外有效運作的競爭對手；巨大的經濟不平等、長期失業、毒癮、無家可歸和犯罪；文化混亂、歷史虛無主義、家庭破裂和生育率下降；社會絕望、精神萎靡、社會孤立以及心理健康問題發病率飆升；面對頹廢和幾乎不掩飾的自我厭惡，民族團結和目標喪失；巨大的內部分歧、種族緊張、騷亂、政治暴力，一個日益分裂的國家。

隨着2020年美國政治的動盪，中國人開始向王的《美國對抗美國》尋求答案。2021年1月6日，當一群暴徒衝進美國國會大廈時，這本書被搶購一空。絕版書在中國電子商務網站上的售價開始高達2,500元。

但是，王滬寧不太可能享受這種讚譽，因為，他最擔心的事情已經成為現實：他在美國發現的“不可阻擋的危機暗流”似乎已經成功地跨越了太平洋。儘管他和習近平在嚴厲鎮壓政治自由主義方面取得了成功，但是，隨着中國逐步接受更加新自由主義的資本主義經濟模式，王在美國觀察到的許多問題，同樣的在過去十年中出現並肆虐中國。

看看西方美國人N.S.Lyons的理性，比我們中國人還了解中國面臨的危險。我們的祖國正在被西方劇毒思想入侵，從文化根基上摧毀同胞的生存根基。

大家必須知道，1988年，37年前，柏林即將被推倒，社會主義陣營國家都在苦苦掙扎求生，中國也在苦苦探索，看不見希望在何處？映照資本主義世界如日中天，正在得意洋洋，信心滿滿，試圖用自己的文化和政治體系拯救世界。

正是在這種環境下，王滬寧教授斷定西方資本主義民主政治治理的終結，堅信中國共產黨中央集權，國有經濟主體的市場經濟，是唯出路。

僅僅四年後，1992年柏林牆被推倒，哈佛大學政治學博士弗朗西斯·福山興奮地寫了The end of history and the last man斷言，自由民主制和西方自由市場資本主義及其生活方式在世界範圍內的傳播，標誌着人類社會文化演變的終點，並成為最後的政府形式。然而，22年後，鑑於美國政府的驢和象兩黨惡鬥，癱瘓政府運作，2014年10月10日，還是同一個福山，發文America in Decay, The Sources of Political Dysfunction，說，美國衰落，只有死路一條。

前些年看過一個視頻，弗朗西斯·福山應邀到德國演講，當主持人嚴肅地介紹福山時，台下與會者突然哄堂大笑，我估計，是主持人提到的一些事實，引起聽眾想起福山的政治觀點左右搖擺，不斷食言。

2024年6月19日，有感於YouTube視頻：美國女士講述來北京生活的原因引外國人圍觀！海外網站的評論亮了,我寫了王滬寧努力爭奪國魂的社會實效，引用同胞留言：

“中國現在豬肉最便宜的部分10到12元一斤，大米普遍2~3元一斤。隨便做個啥賺個3000塊非常容易。3000塊能買300斤豬肉，1000斤大米！很多偏遠（其實生活設施完備）城市房價幾萬一套。所以，客觀來講，中國對於普通人來說，生活真的很容易。”

“國內的人，幾乎沒有人因為無法生存陷入絕望，但是很多人陷入了欲望。為了一些不切實際的欲望，而陷入絕望，進而否定自身否定自己的國家。可悲。”

“因為國內人攀比成風！要住大房子，開大車！家長讓孩子卷985.211！然後他們不斷抱怨生活壓力大！活得累！其實他們自己欲望降低一點就沒那麼累！”

還有告訴你們估計海外華人不知道的：中國農村或者城市的居委會對於沒伴侶，沒孩子，沒工作，沒養老金，沒保險，也就是五保戶的老人都會統一照顧，每個地區都不同。一般會提供免費住所，還會每個月發放1000到2000元的生活費，還會定期1周或者2周派專人上門去查看有沒有問題，甚至派人去免費理髮。過年過節還免費送東西。所以，在中國，即便你是個一無是處的傢伙，到老了，也會有國家照顧你。在中國，你基本不會看見日本的孤獨死。當然了，這也和文化有關，中國年輕人普遍會照顧老人。”

“中國青年失業率其實確實很高，但是因為這波人想要更好的工作，如果只是工作確實很好找，外賣，配送，開車這類都是主動找你，中國的失業跟外國的失業不是一個語境。”

我寫到，這一切都是中共中央政治局常委王滬寧努力爭奪國魂、避免西方自由主義貪婪、堅持中國集體主義共同富裕取得的社會實效。那些吹捧西方兒戲是人類文明的人，智力水平不及到處找人玩命的歐洲傻妞。

2023年3月，歐盟主席馮德萊恩被訪問中國的法國總統馬克龍總統拒絕同機同行，無奈自己乘客機走中國機場普通訪客通道監軍回國後，增加幾分人性，2023年3月30日發表演講Von der Leyen at EP plenary session on EU-China relations：“本月的中國之行，我很幸運能在清明節這一天來到北京 - 這是中國最傳統的節日之一。這是一個緬懷並向先輩們致敬的日子。它是中國豐富歷史和文化的一部分，無疑吸引並激發了世界各地人們的想象力。再次親眼目睹這個國家，更加加深了我對中國人民的深深欽佩和尊重。幾個世紀以來，他們幫助塑造了世界文明。”

“在過去的幾十年，中國政府改變了自己國家的經濟，使8億多人擺脫困境，消除了貧窮。並且，使自己的國家轉變為現代化經濟強國、全球事務的重要參與者以及許多尖端技術的領導者，這些技術將重塑未來的全球人類文明和進步。如今，作為經濟強國；中國正在減少對世界的依賴，同時，在增加世界對自己的依賴。”

讀過這篇演講，我一直在猜測究竟是誰執筆寫了此文，能直擊中華文明的要害。在混蛋充斥的歐洲，竟然有如此明白事理的人，理解中華文明對人類發展的貢獻。我們祖國取得這一切令人垂涎的成就，都是在被馮德萊恩同類的西方人祖先，和美國黑船艦隊馴化的日本人祖先百年殺戮和掠奪一窮二白的基礎上發展起來的。

日本人的獸性轉變，證明了西方文明的邪性。自古，日本人亦步亦趨學中國，學基建學漢字說中文追求和平。直到今天，日本人還在使用漢字，科技文章90%以上是當用漢字。歐洲的孽種美國人黑船艦隊獸性化日本人，殺戮3千多萬亞洲人。

是毛澤東運用中國共產黨組織的政治工具，把因一盤散沙而被人任意欺辱的中國人，凝聚成鐵拳，所向披靡。在同胞們穿衣吃飯都困難的建國初期，用極其落後的武器裝備，出國迎戰西方禽獸。韓戰，打敗美國糾集的、武器裝備先進的16國聯軍。後來西方用精良軍事裝備武裝和蠱惑它三哥印度人，侵占中國領土，中國軍隊迎戰。戰爭的結果，被西方人描述為中國軍隊驅趕一群印度水牛。從此，原來一盤散沙的中國人戰無不勝，開創了長期的和平局面，讓列強的獸性子孫們，至今不敢小視我國。

新加坡華人的驕傲李光耀曾經說，中國在韓戰擊敗美國聯軍後，歐洲人頓消蔑視，開始對他畢恭畢敬。見過報道，有同胞中東遊，在伊拉克，伊朗，敘利亞，被人拉住拍照合影。在餐館用餐，要麼拒絕收費，要麼有人悄悄買單。因為只有中國政府和人民，在真心實意地支援他們被美國摧毀的國家。

December 2, 2024 — Ronnie C. Chan, Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Properties and Chair Emeritus of the Asia Society, speaks with Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, about the implications of the 2024 U.S. presidential election for the future of U.S.-China relations and global stability. Columbia University Interim President Katrina Armstrong and University Professor Jeffrey Sachs contribute introductory remarks.

Weatherhead East Asian Institute, a hub for the study of modern and contemporary East, Southeast, and Inner Asia at Columbia University.

陳啟宗博士對現實極度悲觀

在論壇，陳啟宗介紹，一次，他絕望地對兒子說：我不欣賞你們這一代，我們這一代是幸運的，你們這一代世界完蛋“I don't admire your generation. My generation is the luckiest; but your generation is doom.”他說，我不想讓這裡所有的大學生氣餒，特別是當你足夠聰明可以去哥倫比亞時，你認為你可以征服世界，我74歲，快75歲了，即使在我年輕的時候，我也沒有夢想過，我只是試着了解我周圍的世界並生存下來，希望是如此。沒有人可以指責我被動，我和以前一樣活躍，儘管，現在我比以往任何時候都更加悲觀。

陳啟宗說：澳大利亞現在限制16歲或16歲以下的人使用網絡空間的時間，中國大約三年前限制孩子們玩電子遊戲，周末只能玩兩個小時左右，而不是工作日，當時每個人都在譴責中國人，今天人們都在譴責澳大利亞人，我打賭，5年後，世界上大多數國家都會有完全相同的政策。

陳啟宗博士應該解決實際問題

陳啟宗似乎還沒有認識到，回顧他的數十年努力，除了企業經營成功的付出之外，社會付出更多，可是，看看更加日益惡化的世界，他不斷地演講著文的實際社會作用為零。因為，是掌握國家機器立法權的人通過立法控制社會的運行，在很大程度上，立法的人是為個人和黨派團體的利益考慮。因此，陳啟宗的社會努力為零，因為他的付出僅局限於善意說教，苦口婆心，沒有涉及改變立法模式。

正是因為陳啟宗的努力方向不對，不斷地努力付出，不斷地演講，耗盡心血，無濟於事。對邪惡的人繼續邪惡化的現實無奈，遭受絕望的折磨。

從本質看，陳啟宗博士已經取得了優秀個人素養和社會感召力，現在應該停止說教他人，浪費自己和他人的時光。把寶貴的人生年華轉向務實，推進具體改進社會治理的舉措，譬如，與王滬寧探討，與大陸眾多著名企業家聯手，組建民間立法機構協助政府，針對具體問題快速立法，彌補政府立法瞻前顧後遲緩的弊端。

國家資助孕兒養兒促進人口生育

國家發行貨幣是為了促進社會發展，只要適當地控制通脹率，無所謂負債不負債。

現在，世界發達國家的高素質人口，出生率低於更替率，宗教愚昧文化落後導致貧窮國家，低素質人口卻野蠻增長，世界正在被低素質人口替換。中國的人口出生率也低於更替率，國家取消計劃生育政策，鼓勵生育。

然而，在中國，過重的育兒負擔，成為絆腳石。為此，中國應該給予孕期生活補助，醫院取消育兒接產費，提供住院飲食和一切費用，還要給予生兒獎勵。孩子高中畢業前教育免費。大學提供助學金，工作後逐漸返還。

如此，減輕父母的負擔，使收入用於日常消費，從而發展第三產業，用實際舉措促進內循環，活躍和發展經濟。反之，一切內循環的設想和呼籲，都是徒勞。

擺脫西施司法體系法官律師胡為

2023年9月13日報道《孩子當街被搶，父親怒殺三個人販被判無期？法官：故意殺人罪》，父親殺三人，是因為人販子反抗，拒絕交出被搶的孩子。此外，孩子被搶，很可能導致被害家庭成員的抑鬱死亡，人販子已經構成故意殺人在先。父親殺人是正當防衛，替政府為同胞除害，應該巨額獎勵。而判刑的法官，應該關進監獄，永生不得釋放，以警示他人，停止西式而司法獸性兒戲胡鬧。

還有，社會公德淪喪，人們不敢救助他人，是西式司法獸性化的混帳法官的混帳判決造成。現在，經常有故意製造被害假象，誣陷敲詐他人的報道，罪源在西施司法獸性化的法官的獸性化胡鬧，做有利於敲詐勒索者的判決。

為擺脫西施司法體系荒謬法律條款，混帳法官和律師，胡作非為的的危害。組織民間自主審判團，根據民意對刑事罪犯判決。從新審查長期以來民間爭議較大的判決，從新判決。對於當事法官和律師審查評估做罪與否判決。

從人類求生本能的視角來看，哥倫比亞大學韋瑟黑德東亞研究所的成立，是一群人受過高等教育者，以展示高尚情操的名義從事謀私勾當。這個對話訪談節目，就是能夠憑高智商取得高等教育學位的人，用於謀生的常用手段。

對出國留學的專業進行嚴格限制

應該對留學的專業進行限制，避免製造禽獸回國害人。例如，經濟，醫學，哲學，法律，人文，等，與生存資料生產無關的專業，取消國籍避免回國害人。

在中國，花費巨資到西方根受教育的人，回國後，也建立了大量的智庫，研究中心，養一群西方教育馴化的禽獸，不做物質財富創造，享受同胞供養，胡思亂想，著書立說，胡說八道，把眾多好孩子培養為與他們一樣的寄生蟲，吃人飯，拉狗屎。在西方，政客的許多害人行為，都是來源於智庫的禽獸。

看看世界，進行軍事推演，鼓吹戰爭的恰恰是那些智庫里的禽獸。

國家發行貨幣，是為了流通發展經濟，只要控制通脹率2%內就好，可是，中國在西方接受教育的人，卻發行債卷，把國家發行的貨幣變成借來的高利貸，還要付息還本。最近在沙特發行20億美元主權債券。拿回國內投資推高通脹率，還要還本，付息發行利率4.340%。逐漸積累，稅入不夠付息，世界國家都被這種兒戲玩垮。

我姐姐和我太太的姐姐，都被高額回報騙走了終身積蓄，現在，被巨大心理壓力摧毀了健康。據此估算，中國民間儲蓄的15%-20%被這些人轉移到海外。前幾天YouTube視頻留言，在中國某大城市的寫字樓，都是皮包公司，老闆西裝革履開豪車招搖撞騙。警示事實，父母巨資到國外把孩子馴成禽獸，回國坑害同胞。

人類社會的悲哀在於，99%以上的人是昏庸無知狀態，不能判斷事物本質，盲從。經常看到引用某某智庫的專家如何說。

哥倫比亞大學教授傑弗里·薩克斯

陳啟宗對世界的絕望與哥倫比亞大學教授傑弗里·薩克斯一樣，多年來，他對世界絕望，說英美是最邪惡的資本主義，在家裡玩民主，在世界做盡邪惡。在許多場合，他都激烈抨擊批評中國的言論令其啞口無言。

這一切，源自傑弗里·薩克斯教授對現實世界人類困境的理解。他憑藉論文《開放經濟內的要素成本與宏觀經濟調控: 理論與實證》在哈佛經濟系獲得了碩士和博士文憑，並在哈佛就讀期間受邀加入了哈佛學會。他現為哥倫比亞大學地球研究所可持續發展中心的主任及教授。曾經擔任拉丁美洲、東歐、前南斯拉夫、前蘇聯、亞洲和非洲的經濟顧問，和前聯合國秘書長潘基文的特別顧問。從2002年到2006年，他任聯合國秘書長科菲·安南的特別顧問及聯合國千年計劃的總負責人。他曾與國際機構合作，幫助發展中國家處理減少貧窮、債務減免和疾病控制，特別是艾滋病問題，而因此在世界聞名。2022年獲唐獎永續發展獎。

彭博社主編John Micklethwait博士和《經濟學人》編輯Adrian Wooldridge博士

這裡，我想起另外兩個欣賞中國做法的人，2020年，面對美國政府無能讓新冠病毒導致大量死亡，中國卻有效控制疫情。彭博社主編John Micklethwait博士和《經濟學人》編輯Adrian Wooldridge博士聯名發文The Virus Should Wake Up the West，說：當霍布斯寫《利維坦》時，中國是卓越的行政管理的中心，具有世界上最先進的公務員制度，其成員都是從龐大的帝國中經過嚴格科舉考試選拔的學者文官。歐洲是一個由敵對封建家族統治的血腥戰場，政府職位要麼按出生分配，要麼像家具一樣買賣，是爭奪統治權推動政府進步。政府的工作就是保護其公民。然而，新冠狀病毒大流行表明，歐洲和美國的主要政府機構已無法勝任工作。

我注意到John Micklethwait博士和Adrian Wooldridge博士都在牛津大學歷史系學習過，都對歷史有深入的理解。

哥倫比亞大學校長簡介

Katrina Armstrong 卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗女士

哥倫比亞大學臨時校長

衛生與生物醫學科學執行副校長

衛生科學學院院長

哥倫比亞大學歐文醫學中心首席執行官

哈羅德和瑪格麗特·哈奇大學教授

執業初級保健醫師

校長辦公室

newsteam@columbia.edu, officeofthepresident@columbia.edu

https://www.facebook.com/columbia/

Dr. Profssor. Katrina Armstrong 

Interim President, Columbia University

Executive Vice President for Health and Biomedical Sciences

Dean of the Faculties of Health Sciences 

Chief Executive Officer of Columbia University Irving Medical Center

Harold and Margaret Hatch Professor of the University

A practicing primary care physician

Office of the President

https://www.facebook.com/columbia/

newsteam@columbia.edu, officeofthepresident@columbia.edu

哥倫比亞大學歐文醫學中心 CUIMC

https://m.curtbrinkman.com

是一家臨床、研究和教育企業，位於曼哈頓北部的一個校園。

Columbia University Irving Medical Center (CUIMC) is a clinical, research, and educational enterprise located on a campus in northern Manhattan.

來自美國最優秀醫生的頂級醫療服務

https://www.nyp.org/locations/newyork-presbyterian-columbia-university-medical-center

紐約長老會/哥倫比亞大學歐文醫學中心是哥倫比亞大學瓦格洛斯內外科醫學院下屬的一家擁有 738 張床位的醫療中心，提供幾乎所有醫學領域的急診、初級和專科護理。我們的員工致力於在溫馨友好的醫院環境中為每一位患者及其家人提供最優質、最富有同情心的護理和服務。

作為我們醫院的一部分，紐約長老會/哥倫比亞醫院是美國最全面的學術醫療保健服務系統之一，吸引了來自紐約市大都會區、全國各地和世界各地的患者。紐約長老會/哥倫比亞醫院一直被公認為醫學教育、開創性研究和創新患者護理領域的領導者。

服務與專業：癌症護理、消化系統疾病、心臟、神經內科和神經外科、骨科、兒科、精神病學和行為健康、康復醫學、血管、女性健康。

校長致辭：

晚上好，我是卡特里娜·阿姆斯特朗，我很榮幸能擔任這裡的臨時主席，並能為今晚的活動做介紹，我非常感謝你們能來這裡，了解美中關係的過去、現在和未來。首先，我要感謝我們的貴賓陳啟宗，感謝他與傑弗里·薩克斯和林·惠文一起來到這裡，在過去的一個小時裡，我很高興能見到他們，我們很高興你們能來到這裡，來到哥倫比亞。我想你們都能想象到，我的工作有好的一面，也有不好的一面，但我想說，這段時間我工作中最好的部分是傾聽和學習來自不同學科的專家關於當今世界上最重要的話題和問題。哥倫比亞是一個非常特別的地方，我們擁有來自各個領域的專家，他們來自各個學術領域，有各種思維方式，我們可以把他們聚集在研究領域，創造討論、合作和交流的中心。

我認為這些領域是無與倫比的，今天我們來到這裡是因為韋瑟黑德研究所，它是一個很好的例子，展示了我們可以做什麼。我們能做的最好的事情是什麼？我們可以在這裡舉辦各種主題和演講，就像我們今晚所做的那樣，比如關於中美關係這個極其重要、複雜且影響深遠的話題的對話，當然，當我們進入這個對話時，我想談談哥倫比亞與中國人民和機構之間關係的重要性，不久前我聽到了一些關於歷史的事情，我認為我們知道這種關係已經培育了很長時間，這種關係相信信息共享、追求研究和思想成長，實際上可以追溯到 150 多年前，事實上，據我所知，它可以追溯到 19 世紀末的清朝。

當時一群傑出的中國領導人在 20 世紀來到這裡學習，哥倫比亞多年來發展成為一所主要的研究型大學，並了解到與中國交流的力量，學生們來這裡接受高級培訓和化學、物理等科學領域的研究，並成為著名的傑出科學家，當然我們從這些學生身上學到了這些，這些學生給我們帶來了交流，幾十年來，許多年來，這種交流使我們更加強大未來，中國的許多領導人都會從他們在這裡遇到的一些制度中學習，就像我們把這些想法帶到我們在哥倫比亞大學建設的事業中一樣。我知道，今天我們非常自豪，這種充滿活力的人員和思想交流繼續推動我們前進，無論是從我們歡迎的來自中國的學生，到中國歷史語言和文化課程，再到像這樣的活動，我們都會問自己一些重要的問題，關於我們如何繼續建立這種關係，繼續共同學習。我非常高興能夠介紹大學教授兼研究所可持續發展中心主任傑弗里·薩克斯，他將在今晚介紹我們的演講者。

Good evening my name is Katrina Armstrong and I have the incredible privilege of being the interim president here and being able to introduce this event tonight I'm really grateful that you're all here to hear about the past present and future of us China relations I want to begin by thanking our distinguished guest Ronnie Chan for being here alongside Jeffrey Sachs and lean hwin who I've gotten the pleasure of meeting over the last hour and we're so glad you're here and have come to Colombia I think as you all can imagine there's good parts of my jobs and some less good parts of my job but I will say the best part of my job of these times getting to listen and learn from experts across a variety of disciplines about the topics and issues that matter the most in the world today Columbia is such an extraordinary place place where we have experts from pretty much every corner of every scholarship every way of thinking and we can bring them together in areas of study that create these hubs of discussion collaboration and exchange

that I think are truly Second To None today we're here because of the Weatherhead Institute which is really a wonderful example of what we can do and what is the best of us a place where we can host topics and speakers as we're doing tonight such as the conversation on this incredibly important complex and consequential topic of us China relations of course I want to as we head into this conversation situated in the importance of that relationship here between Colombia and the people and institutions of China something that I was hearing some of the history about not too long ago I think as we know that this relationship has been nurtured for a long time a relationship that believes in the sharing of information the pursuit of research and the growth of ideas really dating back for more than 150 years in fact as I understand it it dates back to the late 19th century during the Ching Dynasty when a group of prominent Chinese leaders came to study here in the 20th century Columbia developed over the years into a major research University and learned the power of the exchange with China where students came here to receive Advanced Training and scientific Fields like chemistry and physics and became well-known preeminent scientists and that of course we learned from those students and those students brought an exchange to us that has strengthened us over the decades and many many years to come many of the leaders in China learned from some of the systems they encountered here just as we brought those ideas to what we were building here at Columbia University and I know that we're incredibly proud today that this Dynamic exchange of people and ideas continues to propel us forward both from the students who we welcome from China the classes in Chinese history language and culture and events like this one where we ask ourselves the important questions about how we can continue to build that relationship continue to learn together with that I'm absolutely delighted to be able to introduced Jeffrey saaks the university professor and director of the center for sustainable development in the Institute who will be introducing our speakers this evening

傑弗里·薩克斯

非常感謝大家的到來，阿姆斯特朗總統，非常感謝您的接待，我們所有人都很幸運能參加這個精彩的活動，羅尼，感謝您的到來，我們有一位偉大的中國商界領袖，政策界領袖，他是世界上最偉大的慈善家之一，通過家族傳統，在公共衛生和許多其他領域傳播了巨大的利益，我們在這裡慶祝韋瑟黑德東亞研究所成立75周年，這對這個偉大的機構來說絕對是非凡的，我們還有我們的優秀主任、偉大的學者和歷史學家，他研究了上個世紀美國東亞事務，以及上個世紀一些最困難的時期，特別是越南戰爭的經歷。

正如阿姆斯特朗總統所說，哥倫比亞與中國的傳統是如此緊密，你會希望並認為不會有問題，我們在這裡只是慶祝一個偉大的悠久傳統，我在想這所大學最偉大的中國畢業生之一 PC Chang 取得的最偉大成就之一，他是托馬斯的學生杜威，對不起，他在 20 世紀 20 年代在約翰·杜威的指導下，擔任埃蘭諾·羅斯福的副主席，起草了《世界人權宣言》，這表明我們可以擁有全球倫理，我們可以建立一個基於人類尊嚴和體面的全球共同體，借鑑中國、美國、歐洲和世界文化的偉大傳統，這就是它的真正含義，我們非常自豪他在這裡接受過培訓，展示了哥倫比亞和中國關係的悠久傳統，我不得不說，這就是我對與中國關係的看法，我不明白為什麼我們覺得有任何危機，在我看來，沒有必要，但我們不是來聽我說話的，我們是來聽這些偉大的領導人說話的，他們以自己獨特的方式，在學術、商業、政府諮詢和慈善事業方面，幫助美國和中國以最具建設性的方式建立橋梁當然，陳啟宗是一位偉大的商業領袖，他是恒隆地產有限公司香港分公司的名譽主席，他曾以多種身份擔任中國政府的高級顧問，我認識他是以中國發展研究基金會高級顧問的身份認識他的，該基金會在過去 25 年裡每年都會舉辦一次聚會，將美國和歐洲的人們聚集到中國，這是加深關係、建立信任和建立健全理解的絕佳方式，如果它能夠推廣，對世界來說將是非凡的，陳啟宗將與我們自己的萊恩進行對話，嗯，我將把它交給你，因為我們非常渴望傾聽和學習，並從你們兩位的智慧中受益，非常感謝。

thank you all so very much for being here president Armstrong thank you so much for hosting us here and how lucky all of us are to be at this wonderful event uh Ronnie thank you you for being here we have a great leader of China of the business Community the policy Community one of the world's great philanthropists who has spread uh through a family tradition tremendous benefits in public health and in so many other areas and uh we're here to celebrate the Weatherhead East Asia Institute 75th Anniversary which is uh absolutely uh phenomenal of this great institution With The Lean H our wonderful director and a great scholar and historian of Us East Asian uh Affairs over the last century and some of the most difficult periods of the last century notably the Vietnam War experience as president Armstrong said Colombia's tradition uh is so strong with China you would hope and think that there would be no problems we would just be here celebrating a great long tradition and I was just thinking about one of the greatest accomplishments of one of the greatest Chinese graduates of this University PC Chang who was a student of Thomas dwey uh in uh of John Dewey excuse me in the 1920s and then went on to be the uh Vice chair under Elanor Roosevelt for the drafting of the universal Declaration of Human Rights which showed we can have Global Ethics and we can have a global Community Based on human dignity and decency drawing on the great traditions of China of the United States of Europe of world cultures and that was the real meaning of that and that's someone we're very proud was trained here uh and shows this long great tradition of Colombia uh and China relations I have to say that's how I feel about relations with China I can't understand why we feel that there's any kind of crisis at all in my view there doesn't have to be but we're not here to listen to me we're here to listen to these great uh leaders uh who in each of their distinctive ways in scholarship in business uh in uh government advising in philanthropy are helping to bridge the United States and China in the most constructive ways Ronnie Chan of course is uh a great business leader uh of hang l properties limited the honorary chair in Hong Kong uh he has been a senior advisor to the Chinese government in many capacities I've known him uh in his capacity as a senior advisor to the China development Research Foundation which also hosts an annual gathering for the last 25 years which brings together uh people from the United States and Europe to China and it's been a great way to deepen relations and build trust and build a sound understanding that if it could be generalized would be phenomenal for the world and uh Ronnie Chan will be in conversation with our very own uh lean H uh and um I'm going to turn it over to you because we're just desperately eager to listen and and to learn and to benefit from uh the wisdom of both of you thank you very much.

阮連漢，哥倫比亞大學韋瑟黑德東亞研究所所長

首先，我要感謝阿姆斯特朗院長和薩克斯教授，阿姆斯特朗院長的精彩開幕致辭，以及薩克斯教授的精彩介紹，我還要感謝韋瑟黑德東亞研究所的教職員工，他們中的許多人今晚都到場，還有可愛的工作人員，如果沒有他們，這次活動根本不會發生，他們太棒了，還要感謝你們所有人在這個寒冷的夜晚前來，最重要的是感謝我的好朋友羅尼·譚，我先介紹一下背景，我認識羅尼的時候，韋瑟黑德東亞研究所決定進行一次夏季校友之旅，重新與亞洲社區建立聯繫，正是在這次香港之旅和亞洲協會之旅中，我們放映了我們的藝術家兼駐場演員托尼·博伊的電影，連續三季，羅尼和我在晚餐時開始了這次精彩的對話，我們在一張桌子上進行了交談，那天晚上就這樣了在放映完三季之後，第二天晚上在漢江的辦公室，嗯，這算是那次放映的延伸，但我們是在觀眾席中我們最親密的 200 位朋友面前進行的，所以有點不同，但我希望嘗試重現今天在這裡與大家進行的親密討論，所以首先，我是一名歷史學家，我喜歡處理過去，所以我將從那裡開始，當然，我們的標題是嗯，你知道過去、現在和未來的中美關係，我不會從遙遠的過去開始，儘管我教授的課程基本上從 1760 年代開始到今天，但我要從一個男人亨利·基辛格開始，亨利·基辛格是羅尼在世時非常了解的人，但我只見過一次，但在我為越南戰爭一書進行研究的過程中，以及最近對 Doc 的致敬中，我非常仔細地研究了他致基辛格博士，在他去世大約四天前一年四天前，嗯，在他去世一周年紀念日那天，你在香港的演講一開始就強調了了解歷史的重要性，嗯，基辛格博士的一生、事業和遺產，所以我們歷史學家對此非常熟悉，嗯，我們知道基辛格博士對歷史的尊重有多深，嗯，在他的一生中，他總是先發制人，嗯，我的意思是，嗯，基辛格博士寫了很多關於他擔任國家安全顧問和國務卿期間的巨著，所以我的問題是，嗯，你為基辛格博士做出的里程碑式成就之一，嗯，基本上是歸功於他開啟了中美關係的新篇章，嗯，當然，這也是中美說唱 PMA 的開始，從 1949 年到 1971 年左右，尼克和基辛格秘密訪問北京北京和華盛頓是敵人，他們曾因朝鮮半島問題直接交鋒，在越南戰爭期間也間接交鋒。基辛格博士開啟的這段友誼持續了大約 40 年，根據你的估計，你說的奧巴馬重返亞洲是一個任意的時間。我想談談你對基辛格博士的簡短評論以及他的讚揚，我想問你，我們可以從 1971 年至 2011 年的那段親密友誼的和平時代中吸取什麼教訓，換句話說，如果雙方願意合作而不是競爭和挑戰，我們可以從那個時代學到什麼，這些教訓可以應用到今天。所以,  是我的上一個問題

Lien-Hang Nguyen, Director of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University

first I just want to thank president Armstrong and Professor Sachs uh president Armstrong for the wonderful opening remarks and to Professor saxs for their great introductions I also would like to thank the Weatherhead East Asian Institute faculty members um many of whom are here tonight uh as well as the lovely staff who without them this event would not have happened at all uh they're amazing uh and to all of you for coming out um on this cold evening and most of all to my good friend Ronnie tan so just a little bit of background um I met Ronnie when the Weatherhead East Asian Institute uh decided to undertake a summer alumni tour to reconnect with our communities in Asia um and it was on this trip uh to Hong Kong in particular and to the Asian Society where we screened our artist and Resident Tony boy's film three seasons and there Ronnie and I began this great conversation over dinner we had um one table conversations and we did that that night after the screening of three seasons and

then the next night at at the office of of hangang um and this is sort of an

extension of that but we're doing it in front of our closest 200 friends here um in the audience so it's a little

different but I hope to kind of try to reproduce that intimate discussion uh here with you all today so to begin and

kind of following up on uh Professor sexo I'm a historian I love dealing with the past so I'm going to start there uh

and of course our our title is um you know the past present future of us China relations and I'm not going to start in

the Deep past uh even though I teach courses that begin pretty much in the 1760s to today but I'm going to start

with one man Henry Kissinger uh and and Henry Kissinger is someone that Ronnie

who Ronnie knew quite well uh when he was alive but I only met once but studied very closely through the course

of my research for my book on the Vietnam War and a recent tribute to Doc

to Dr Kissinger upon the year anniversary he only passed away about four days ago one year and four days ago

um the year anniversary of his death you began your speech in Hong Kong emphasizing the importance of

understanding history um for Dr Kissinger in his life his career and his

legacy so we historians are very familiar with that uh we know how deeply

uh Dr Kissinger's respect for history um basically was during his lifetime he

always took the first cut uh and what I mean by that was that uh Dr Kissinger uh

wrote magisterial volumes about his time in office as National Security advisor

uh as well as secretary of state so my question to you um one of the landmark

achievements that you contributed to Dr Kissinger uh was basically crediting him

with the opening of a new chapter in us China relations uh and that of course was the beginning of Sino American rap PMA that from 1949 until about 1971 with Nick's with Kissinger's secret visit uh to Beijing uh Beijing and Washington were enemies and they went to blows directly over the can the Korean Peninsula and indirectly uh during the war in Vietnam that period of friendship that Dr Kissinger opened lasted for 40 years or so in your estimation it was an arbitrary date that you said with Obama's pivot to Asia I'd like to pick up on this brief observation that you made uh to Dr Kissinger um and his tribute and I want to ask you what lessons can we take away from that peaceful era of close friendship from about 1971 to 2011 um in other words what can we learn from that era that could apply today if both sides were willing to cooperate and collaborate rather than compete and challenge so my past question.

陳啟宗

謝謝您，您能聽到我嗎？沒有麥克風，好的，現在麥克風打開了，現在麥克風又沒了，很好，我在線，我在線，我在線，我在線，我在線，現在好點了嗎，好的，好的，不，你好，你好，好的，嗯，對不起，你知道嗎，我們換一下，我們換一下，我沒有你，不，不，他們不想我們換，嗯，我們共用一個，好的，現在沒事了，我沒有，首先，請允許我談談您所說的一兩件事，傑夫說得對，在 20 世紀 20 年代，一個來自中國的年輕人來到這裡學習，最終對改變現代中國產生了巨大的影響，H 先生，他是中國研究所的所長，他的兩位繼任者都在這裡，實際上，我是，哈默茲和喬治·蓋伊，所以這真的是哥倫比亞在 100 年前所做的一項非常好的工作嗎，恰好是 100 年前，因為我認為他在 1927 年接管了中國研究所，該研究所至今仍活躍着，還有一件事我想向在座的各位表示感謝，因為我上次在這裡演講是在 1997 年，有三個人邀請了我，NT Wang M Zen 教授和克拉羅爾·格拉克，卡羅爾和麥迪今天也在這裡，真是太好了，我們仍然聚在一起，更直接地回答這個問題，我已經告訴亨利了，我說，1971 年美國和中國的關係很大程度上是由我不能說錯誤的原因所驅動的，但這是一個不充分的原因，那就是兩國都有共同的敵人蘇聯，這就是美國希望與中國合作的原因之一，也是中國希望與美國合作的原因，我早就告訴亨利，很遺憾你們在建立關係方面有一個良好的開端，無論出於什麼原因，我們其他人都沒有跟進其他努力來改善關係和深化關係，因此，與其只關注外在政策，我更願意展示歷史的另一面呃我們叫她韓教授，因為發音太難，所以我們叫她H，所以請原諒我呃，那就是中國人和美國人在歷史上一直非常喜歡對方美國從來沒有殖民過中國葡萄牙人殖民過英國人殖民過荷蘭人殖民過台灣，但美國人從來沒有殖民過美國是最慷慨的美國是最慷慨和真誠的，我不是因為我是美國公民才這麼說的，但那也是呃美國在與他人打交道時最慷慨和最真誠的，在沒有純粹實際需要或願望的情況下，我記得30年前我在中國東北嚴寒的天氣里，一個商人接我，他以前是政府官員，開着他的別克車來接我，我說你為什麼有別克，他說哦，美國製造的最好，他不知道我和妻子在1980年剛結婚時開了一輛別克，那是一輛檸檬車，我的觀點是，不管它是不是最好的，中國人直到20 30年前仍然認為任何東西那就是美國，美國當然是最好的，我不是在說這是不是真的，我的觀點不是這個，我的觀點是，個人之間和社區之間的善意遠遠超過了當時外在的政策需要，這可能會導致金格博士和理查德·尼克松總統改善關係，所以我認為，雖然我們正進入一個政策方面出現分歧的階段，但我認為現在是我們永遠不應該忘記的時候了，除了政策之外，每個國家還有更多的東西，那就是人與人之間的關係，我希望在沒有順風的情況下，在沒有順風的情況下，這是我們需要加強人民之間關係的時候，這就需要我們共同的人性的基本尊嚴，這將使我們走得更遠，所以我不是一個政策專家，不是一個學術專家，沒有足夠的智慧來深入討論，請允許我開始回答你的問題問題回到人與人之間的基礎，歸根結底，這是一件能夠持久的事情。

陳啟宗

thank you here can you hear me no microphone okay now it's on now it's gone again that's good I'm on I'm on I'm on I'm on am I on okay is it better now yes okay no hello hello hello okay um sorry you know what let's switch let's switch I don't have you no no no they don't want us to switch um we share one okay now it's okay I didn't Sor first of all allow me to pick up on U one or two things that was said uh Jeff was right that in the 1920s a young man from China came here and and study uh and eventually uh had a tremendous effect in changing modern China Mr H and he was a president of China Institute and two of his successors are here actually I'm uh hammerz as well as George gay so is really this a really good work that Colombia has done um 100 years ago exactly 100 years ago uh because I think it was in 1927 that he took over the China Institute uh which is still alive and well today uh one other thing I want to acknowledge to people here because the last time I spoke here was n well one of the times I spoke here was 1997 three people invited me Professor NT Wang M Zen and clarol Gluck Carol and Maddie are here today so wonderful that we are still all together to answer the question more directly um I have told Henry this I said um the relationship between the US and China in 1971 was very much driven by I can't say a wrong reason but it's an inadequate reason and that is both countries were having a common enemy in the Soviet Union that's one reason why the United States want to work with China and that's also why China want to work with the United States and I've long told Henry this that it is too bad that you had a good beginning for whatever reason in building relationship that the rest of us have not followed through with other efforts in order to better relationship and deepen the relationship so instead of dwelling on just the outward policy uh side of things I would present another side of History uh we call her Han Professor Yan is too difficult to pronounce so we call H so forgive me uh and that is the chines people and the American people historically have always been very fond of each other America never colonized China the Portuguese did the British did the Dutch did in the case of Taiwan but the Americans never did American was the most generous American was a mo it's not I'm not saying this because I'm American citizen but that too uh America uh was the most generous and genuine in its dealings with other people in the absence of purely practical needs or wants I remember 30 years ago I was in the Northeast China bitterly cold picked up by a business person who was formerly a government official coming to pick me up in his Buick and I said why do you have a Buick he said oh made in America the best he doesn't know better my wife and I drove a Buick when we first got married in 1980 and it was a lemon my point is this that whether it is the best or not the Chinese people as late as 20 30 years ago still think that anything that is American America is automatically the best I'm not saying whether is true or it is not true my point is not that my point is that the Good Will on a personto person basis and in a community to community basis far exceeds that of just the outward policy necessity of the day that might have caused Dr kinger and and president Richard Nixon to better relationship so I think that while we are entering into a phase where policy-wise we're diverging I think it is this is the time that we should never forget that there is something more than just policy there's something more than just necessity of each country and that is the person-to-person relationship and my hope is that in the absence of uh of the of a the opposite of taale Tailwind in the opposite of a nice Tailwind these are the times that we need to strengthen the People to People respon uh person uh relationship which then requires a basic decency of you of our common Humanity that will carry us a long way so I not being a policy walk not being a academ Mission smart enough to speak in depth allow me just to begin my answering your question by bringing it back to a personto person basis that that is at the end of the day something that will endure that。

Lien-Hang Nguyen，

在我的美國-東亞關係課程中，我希望更多地探索的一件事就是開放政策的重要性，這直接說明了 P 或許對美國或美國人的理解可能是一件值得慶祝的事情，因為美國不是試圖殖民中國的西方帝國主義國家之一，而是與其他國家特別是歐洲抗爭，那麼我有一個問題，那麼就您是否知道，如果您將基辛格 1971 年開始的這段時期視為一段親密友誼時期，並且持續了大約 40 年，那就是存在共同的敵人，但它比共同的敵人更持久，所以現在我們將更深入地討論總統直到 2011 年，所以我想討論一下您在回顧 1949 年以來的中美關係時所做的簡短觀察嗯，關於下一章，基辛格博士見證了十年多的這一章，那麼在緊張局勢加劇的道路上發生了什麼，如果你能從過去講到現在，我想指出的一件事是，卡羅爾·格拉克教授在這次會議上對美日關係做出了很好的觀察，這在很大程度上是為了紀念柯蒂斯教授，我看到他們坐在一起，我們正處於你所說的不同的章節的中間，這一章緊張局勢加劇，可能回到1971年之前，作為敵人，你說，你認為美中關係是周期性的，如果我們現在處於中間，當我們還處於中間時，很難談論中間，但你會說，你會指出雙方採取的政策是什麼，這些政策將我們引向了這一新篇章，這一新篇章，潛在的對立和敵人，我要問的是第一是北京和華盛頓採取了什麼政策，才使得我們走到今天這一步；第二是除了雙邊關係之外，兩國的國內政治發揮了什麼作用，才使得我們走到今天這一步；第三是地緣政治因素，所以除了美國和中國發生的事情之外，如果你能概括地講講我們今天的處境，那麼軼事就很棒了，因為我，他給我講了很多非常有趣的軼事，嗯，關於你在看到這種情況發生中所扮演的特殊角色。

Lien-Hang Nguyen

one of the of the things that I would love to um Explore More in my Us East Asian relations course is the importance of the open door notes um and this is something that speaks directly to P perhaps how um sort of understanding of of the United States or of Americans may be something that could be celebrated um in terms of how the United States um weren't one of the Western Imperial countries that that tried to colonize China but that instead fought off um other countries in particular Europe I have a a question then so in terms of you know if you're looking at this period that Kissinger began in 1971 as a period of of close friendship and that it lasted for what it did for about 40 years is the presence of a common enemy um but it outlasted that that common enemy so now we're going a little bit more into into the president up until 2011 so I want to discuss then this brief uh observation that you made in terms of looking at the longer duray of us uh China relation since 1949 um and to talk about this next chapter uh that uh Dr Kissinger witnessed for a little bit um for a good decade a plus so what happened in terms of this road to growing tensions um if you could speak a little bit now moving from the past to the present and one of the things I do want to point out that Professor Carol Gluck made this great observation at this conference that we had on us Japan relations that was pretty much in honor of Professor Curtis and I see them seated that we're we're in the middle of what you call um this different chapter this chapter of growing tensions of of perhaps returning to pre 19711 as enemies you stated that um in your interpretation that you see us China relations as cyclical so if we are now in the middle and it's hard to talk about the middle um while we're still in it but what would you say what would you point to in terms of policies undertaken by both sides that led us to this new chapter this new um sort of chapter of a potential being oppos and enemies and I'm going to ask so that's one what what policies did Beijing and Washington take that got us here today the second would be outside of thinking of the bilateral relationship what role did domestic politics play in both countries that led us to here to where we are today and the third is geopolitical factors so outside of what was happening in terms of the United States uh and China so if you could speak generally about where we find ourselves today anecdotes would be great because I I we he he regaled me with many very interesting anecdotes um about your particular role in seeing this happen too.

陳啟宗 

好吧，我希望我們能夠避免這種困難的關係，雖然不是足夠聰明，但心地善良，因為畢竟美國為世界做了很多好事，特別是在過去的 100 年裡，我認為即使是美國的敵人也不得不承認美國為世界帶來了很多好處。我希望美國能夠超越私利的瑣碎，也許我太天真了，也許我沒有從亨利·金格博士那裡學到足夠多的東西，也許我忘記了現實政治，我希望美國會變得更好，因為你可以看看 1971 年美國與中國建立關係時，當時正值文化大革命的高峰期，當時中國處於最糟糕的時期，那麼為什麼美國在中國處於最糟糕的時期時與中國建立關係，對馬英九的個人崇拜和當時發生的許多其他瘋狂的事情，而美國現在與中國建立了關係，顯然我們當時提到了共同的敵人蘇聯，因此在外交中引入道德總是有問題的，我們都應該有價值觀我完全同意這一點，但認為價值在某種程度上可以驅動一切，這是不正確的。當涉及到生存威脅時，例如，對於某個國家，任何國家，一切都會消失，生存的需要，嗯，生存將成為最重要的。所以，如果中美能夠建立關係，那麼當中國處於嚴重侵犯人權的頂峰時，那今天的情況要好得多，今天的中國比 1971 年 72 年要好得多，但兩國關係正在惡化，對我來說，不管你喜歡與否，不管你給它貼上一個標籤，叫做 CZ 陷阱還是其他什麼，這就是人性，僅此而已。亨利·金格博士在閱讀歷史時，有一點是，他用人性的北極星來閱讀歷史，人性是一個不會單獨改變的因素，你可以改進，但對於一個社會，對於一個國家來說，這很難，只要讀讀歷史，告訴我哪個國家，哪個時期，整個國家在人性上得到了改善，我可以舉幾個例子，比如 18 世紀的英國，當時約翰·衛斯理、查爾斯·衛斯理、喬治·W·惠特菲爾德影響了宗教影響了它，但它們並沒有持續下去，所以今天，我說中國不是對世界的威脅，如果中國對世界構成威脅，那麼 1971 年和 1972 年對世界的威脅要大得多，那麼你為什麼現在反對中國，而你當時卻和中國交朋友，這只是人性使然，中國不是對西方的威脅，中國可能對某些國家的至高無上構成威脅，如果你不能直言不諱，那麼你就有一點問題，感謝上帝，我們在美國大學的情況是，我希望仍然有可能說出真相，所以美國不喜歡別人接近它，當日本在 1988 年 80 年代末和 90 年代初崛起時，這本書被寫成日本第一，對吧，美國做出了反應，廣場是 CAU，就在離這裡不遠的街道上，1986 年，從某種意義上改變了日本的未來進程，直到今天，所以美國不會允許任何人或任何國家在歷史上崛起不會允許第二個大國超越它，所以我一直相信，當美國這個頭號大國和中國這個第二大國共同努力時，世界上許多問題都可以得到解決。在過去的三四十年裡，正如我在大約10年前的亞洲協會活動上所說的那樣，當凱文·魯特第一次加入我們，擔任我們智庫的負責人時，我在白宮外面的海亞當斯酒店參加了那次會議，當時中國非常樂意屈居於美國之下，中國駐華盛頓大使就坐在前排，他沒有反駁這一說法，當然，作為中國的代表，他也不能同意這一點，但他沒有反駁這一說法，這意味着中國非常樂意屈居於美國之下，但第一大國需要有寬宏大量和智慧，長遠來看，如果不給崛起的大國發展空間，歷史告訴我們，我們不會有好結局，你怎麼能拒絕14億人對美好生活的渴望呢，所以我認為這是非常可悲的從中國的角度來看，他們別無選擇，只能改善，那些年他們非常貧窮，他們必須給人民提供更好的生活，而崛起意味着經濟崛起意味着技術進步，到了一定程度，有些人就不再喜歡它了，那麼讓我來談談重返亞洲，那麼你是否看到了這一決定的種子，或者說這一轉變的種子，這種日益緊張和敵對的種子，這是美國試圖遏制中國增長的一部分，而不是努力與中國合作，因為它是是的，我是歷史變革的推動者，我是中美關係的參與者，你們的關係非常棒，對於那些留下來吃晚飯的人，你們會聽到更多，但是我有一個問題，既然你現在提到了未來，這是我們談話的最後一部分，所以未來，是的，不是，中國不是特朗普當選總統特朗普上次離開中國的時候，也不是他在 2016 年上任的時候，中國的出口，基本上是貿易能力，只是與 2016 年不同，現在要強勁得多，而我們無法預測特朗普及其未來四年或特朗普 2.0 的政策，我希望你嘗試，在這裡我希望你告訴我，貿易戰會不會是新技術戰爭，在特朗普領導下的中美關係方面，你如何看待他的內閣人選，你認為他的內閣人選誰會在影響中美關係方面發揮巨大作用，那裡會發生什麼中國正在做什麼，岑總統正在為未來四年的中國做準備，您認為未來會怎樣，羅尼，我們會沒事嗎？我的答案當然是，我不知道，我不知道，我不知道特朗普只點名就選出的任何候選人，馬國務卿，是的，我知道，但我知道名字，但西恩平會怎麼做，我不知道，但讓我這樣說，如果衝突是在貿易範圍內，我要說哈利路亞，那將是我們可以期待的最好情況，我擔心它會遠遠超出貿易範圍，就像拜登政府執政期間發生的那樣，坦率地說，我的態度非常務實，我是一個商人，好吧，我是務實的，我說把它做完，第一天就做 60%，如果可以的話，中國無疑會受到傷害，但美國也會受到傷害，中國能承受嗎，美國能承受嗎，不要只看等式的一邊，中國會受到傷害，雖然只是一個小故事，我和我的一群嗯學員在一起，我一群美國證券交易委員會富有的第二代勤奮企業家，其中一人對我說，他是他所在行業最大的，中國製造業，他說 60% 的關稅我可以做到，但不是每個行業都能做到，所以中國會受到影響，不是每個人都像我的朋友一樣好，但話雖如此，讓我告訴你另一件事，大約 5 個月前，我邀請傑米·戴蒙德在香港與摩根大通董事長交談，他去了，你知道他是世界上最頂尖的銀行家之一，他說，你知道，他出去了很多，作為一個領先的銀行家，他必須處理和關注很多風險，然後他最後用很多話來說，我真正關心的不是這些，而是另外兩個，第一，核擴散行動或硬件軍事，第一，第二，結構性通脹，我對軍事一無所知，所以我不是，我不能，我沒有資格談論結構性通脹，但我是一個商人，我只是不明白美國如何應對特朗普當選後將會出現的結構性通脹如果像他那樣徵收 60% 的關稅，而且不只是對中國徵收，現在也對加拿大、墨西哥和世界其他國家徵收，我相信我們正進入一個通脹上升的時期，這不僅僅是周期性的，我沒關注，我只是在進來之前看到一位胖州長說，他現在傾向於在 12 月再降息一次，如果沒有發生任何事情，我不會讀到這些，這讓我無法理解整體情況，我不是交易員，我不會每天看屏幕，買賣債券、貨幣和利率互換，我不知道，所以我真正擔心的是，由此產生的結構性通脹將非常嚴重，通脹率會非常高，負債最多的人，美國負債纍纍，將不得不面對現實，所以我認為，嗯，現在不再像 1946 年那樣，美國可以隨心所欲地與任何人打交道，現在情況已經不同了，歐洲上漲，日本上漲，中國上漲，印度上漲，這可能是件好事越南正在崛起，美國已經學會了適應這個新世界，美國在經濟、軍事和政治上仍然遙遙領先，但我擔心美國正把自己逼入絕境，去年我去了中東六次，我已經去中東49年了，過去49年，我一直在那裡，前以色列中央銀行行長就坐在這裡，但我現在去阿拉伯國家的次數比去以色列的次數多，去年他們告訴我，來自四個不同國家的四位部長級官員，埃及、沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋和以色列告訴我，美國不再是該地區的主要參與者，聽到這個消息我感到很難過，兩周前，我邀請了三位女士和先生來到我的辦公室，也就是我主持晚宴的那個房間，那就是前總統巴羅佐歐盟委員會，西班牙前外交部長阿蘭查·岡薩雷斯，現任巴黎無極學院院長，曾是法國外交部前秘書長，曾任法國駐日本、英國、德國和中國大使，我在晚餐時發表了一份聲明，從我的觀察來看，我擔心美國也在撤離歐洲，對我來說，這些跡象非常明顯，他們的反應是什麼，他們的反應是零，沒有反應，這意味着沒有人對我的聲明提出異議，這非常能說明問題，這三個人在國際事務的許多方面都是歐洲真正的領導者，因此，作為一名美國公民，看到美國在世界上的地位被我們削弱，我感到很難過，沒有人可以削弱美國，就像美元一樣，除了一個國家，沒有人可以損害美元，如果你說是中國，你不知道你在說什麼，只有美國才能破壞美元，在過去的 30 年裡，美國似乎一直在加倍努力削弱美元的霸權，現在我不明白這對美國或世界上任何地方有什麼好處，我相信一些沒有人相信的事情，大多數人並不像我一樣相信，那就是甚至中國人也認為中國，哦，他們的 R&B 將取代美元，女士們先生們，如果你相信的話，那麼就我而言，你對中國一無所知，甚至中國也不介意美元成為主要貨幣，因為它在經濟上保持了更穩定的環境，國際舞台，所以我認為，今天我觀察到的國際警察，你可能不喜歡警察，但有警察總比沒有警察好，只要警察不霸道，我擔心有時警察會變得有點霸道，所以我認為，我們正在進入一個我從未見過的複雜世界時期，所以八年前，我在芝加哥大學向一群研究生發表了關於八種傷害人類的方式的演講學生們，很遺憾地說，這八起案件都在我眼前上演，這真的非常令人傷心，對我來說也很危險，這就是為什麼我告訴我兒子，他現在已經 42歲了，而當時她 32歲，我說，我對他說，有一天，我說兒子，我不欽佩你們這一代人，我這一代人是最幸運的，你們這一代人是末日，呃，也許，也許，我說夠了。

陳啟宗

well the difficult relationship was something that I hope we were would be um not smart enough but good-hearted enough to avoid because after all America has done a lot of good for the world especially in the last 100 years I think even enemies of En of America have to admit that America has brought a lot of good to the world My Hope Was That America would be able to rise above the the the the the pettiness of self-interest perhaps I was naive perhaps I didn't learn from Dr Henry kinger uh enough perhaps I forgot about real politic when I hope that America would be better because you look at it when the United States built relationship with China in 1971 that was in the height of cultural revolution tion that was when China was at its worst so why is America building relationship with China when China was at its worst personal worship of CH Ma and many other crazy thing that was going on at that time yet America built relationship with China now obviously we mention about the common enemy Soviet Union at the time so to bring in Morality In in in a full sense is always problematic in diplomacy we should all have values that I absolutely agree but to think that up to a certain point that value can drive everything it is just not true when it come to existential threat for example of some country of any country everything goes out of the window existential need uh survival will become the most important so if us China can build relationship when China was in the height of terrible violation of Human Rights what about today today is far better China today is far better than what it was in 1971 72 and yet the relationship is deteriorating and to me whether you like it or not whether you put a label to it called the CZ trap or whatever that's human nature that's all and one thing about Dr Henry kinger when he read history is he read it with the North Star of human nature human nature is a factor that does not change individually you can improve but for a society for a country it's very difficult just read history tell me which country which period of time a whole country humanly somehow got improved there were I can cite you a few such as smaller countries like Britain during the 18th century when John Wesley Charles Wesley George W Whitfield that affected the religion affected it but they didn't last so today uh I said China is not a threat to the world if China was a threat to the world then 1971 72 was a far worse threat to the world so why are you now against China and you make friends with China back then it is simply human nature again that it is not China is not a threat to the West China may be a threat to the supremacy the hamani of some country and if you are not able to call a spade a spade then you have a little problem and thank God we're in a university situation in America where there's still the possibility I hope of speaking the truth and so America doesn't like the fact that somebody else is coming close to it when Japan Rose in the 198 late 80s and early 90s the book was written Japan number one right uh America reacted and the plaza are CAU just down the street not far from here in 1986 in a sense changed the course of Japan's future up to today so America is not going to allow anyone or indeed any country in history Rising would not allow a second power to surpass it and so I I always believe that the world can much of the problem can must be solved when America the number one country and China the number two country work together and for the last 30 40 years as I said at a asiia society event about 10 years ago when Kevin rut first joined us as the head of our Think Tank I sat in that meeting outside of the White House in hey Adams hotel that China is very happy to place second fiddle to the United States and the ambassador of China to Washington DC was sitting in the front row he did not dispute that statement of course he cannot agree to it either as a representative of China but he did not dispute the statement so that means that China was very happy to play second fiddle to the United States but it takes the number one to have the magnanimity the wisdom The Long View to deal with a rising power if you do not give the rising power the room to grow history tells us we will not have a good ending and how can you deny 1.4 billion people wanting a better life so I think that it is a very sad thing for CH from China's perspective there's no choice they have to improve they were so CR pitifully poor in those years that they have to give their people a better livelihood and Rising means economic rise means technological Improvement and up to a certain point some people don't doesn't like it anymore so let me let me turn then to to Pivot to Asia then do you see in the seeds of that decision or that pivot um the seeds to this growing uh tension and hostility that this was the part of the United States trying to uh contain China's growth uh rather than an effort to work with China given its its growing strength in the region so I guess that question comes back to was it the deliberate um policy undertaken by the Obama Administration to contain China to balance China and not to integrate China the reality is it predates the pivotal Asia America since 911 was distracted by the Middle East for roughly 10 years and once that is over in 2009 roughly the pivo Asia came and my question always to my friends is they say America is back in Asia now I said when did America leave the seven Fleet is still by far the strong Congress military power the businesses are all there so the universities are there so they never left but why do you now say that pivot back to Asia it is a message to the world that perhaps has a lot more substance unspoken behind that may not mean as as kind as you and I may think so you know uh I can site you chapter by by and verse how even militar the two were already having a lot of problems like 1993 the Y the the ship that Chinese ship in uh in Indian Ocean stopped for 33 days stuck probably with the with the GPS system turn off you wonder how come China has to build a b system because for 33 days a ship was cannot go on and in fact I was just I was talking to somebody who was in the defense Ministry at that time who was part of the decision making process and he was absolutely correct that eventually they agree upon to have the Saudi Arabian come on ship on board to to check out whatever material supposed to have and found nothing so from 1993 and then I canite you 1996 to aircraft carrier went to the Taiwan Street they never went in but just to aircraft carrier and they outgun the entire PLA and you wonder how come China is building up its military and today America uh China is number one or number two in terms of global trade so how are we going to protect that so it is said that China always the military Doctrine is always to just protect the coastal line I am not so sure because as the number one number two trading power in the world somebody can stop you somewhere such as a laa straight such as the Red Sea right in many P such as the Gulf of uh the stet of hus in many places it can cause you trouble and so if the if China and the United States could work together then it will minimize the need for China to expand as military as much so you know it is action reaction and then re reaction and then re reaction and the world just you know just spiral down and that's exactly what I've been watching in 1999 you have the bombing of the the Belgrade uh Embassy and I remember Senator Mark Kirk Mark Kirk I think it was uh came to my office about four years or three years ago and said oh we use a old map I said sir come on everything is electronic these days is updated to the second and you're telling me that somebody open a map a paper map and and use a old one you got to be kidding me right and then you have 200 and one you have the ep3 spy plane and I call chess Freeman who was a former uh senior official at the state department and said what happened there and he explained to me how the ep3 all get to the the border of China and so one day I was asked by JB Morgan uh to interview as a client I interviewed the vice chair of the international advisory committee which is Bob Gates and I said Bob what happened I said you know you have all these spy planes along the coast of southern China and then sub Marine under the water what if the pla are found in California coast what will America do and there's no answer for me except that we did everything abiding by the international law say Okay so the other guy also abide by the same rule that you abide by Will America accept that and there's no answer and so you know American exceptionalism from the 19th century is still alive and well and and and and so I said that one of the world's biggest problem today is America is still living in the world of 1946 in 1946 America has all the moral Authority in the world America has a superiority economically militarily politically like no other country ever in human history has ever enjoyed but the world has changed Europe has risen Russia is no longer the same Russia Japan is has risen now China is risen India is is in the process so America still think that we can do anything we want it is like I am Mike Tyson you are Ronnie Chan and you are in the boxing ring and of course you can do anything you want right but that was 1946 it is it's like LeBron James in the dunking contest with Yao Ming not with Ronnie chair he dunked me right but it's ya meing so so so the world has changed America is still by far the number one but the losing of self-confidence on the part of the United States is really a a problem to the world and I think it's is unnecessary uh but sadly history tells us otherwise so you're you're getting a little bit of the Flav faor of the dinner conversations that Ronnie will just drop a name drop a contact drop a a really interesting anecdote in which he is not only Observer but in many ways um an agent of historical change so a player um if you will in in us China relations so they're amazing And for those of you staying for dinner you're you're going to hear more uh but I have a question since you now brought up the future which is the last part of of our uh conversation so the future um yes it's not it's not China is not where Trump president elect Trump um last left China or when he assumed office in 2016 China's uh exports it's uh basically trade capacity is is just in a different place than in 2016 it's much more robust now while we cannot predict Trump uh and his policies over the next four years years or Trump 2.0 I want you to try and here I want you to tell me um will trade will the trade war will the new technology War dominate um with regard to us China relations under Trump how do you see his cabinet picks and who do you see in his cabinet picks will have maybe outsized importance in terms of influencing us China relations what will happen there what is China doing what is President Cen doing uh to prepare China for the next four years and what do you see as the future Ronnie are we going to be okay my answer of course is I don't know I don't know I don't know any of those picks that Trump has made only by name Secretary Mar yeah I know but I know by name but what will xiin pin do I don't know but let me say this if the conflict is within just within the bounds of trade I say hallelujah that would be the best scenario we can hope for My worry is that it will go Way Beyond trade just like what happened under Biden Administration and frankly my attitude is a very pragmatic one I'm a business guy okay I'm pragmatic get I said get it over with do the 60% on day one if you can China will no doubt be hurt but so will the United States can China withstand it can America withstand it don't just look at the one side of the equation China will be hurt although just a little story I was with a group of my um mentees I I took care of a group of U SEC wealthy second generation hardworking entrepreneurs and one guy said to me he's the biggest in his industry Manufacturing in China he said 60% tariff I can manage that but not every industry can so China will suffer not everybody is as good as my friend but that said let me just tell you something else I invited Jamie Diamond to speak at the chairman of JP Morgan about 5 months ago uh in Hong Kong and he went as you know he's you know the one of the top Bankers in the world and he said you know he he he went out a lot of r a lot of risks that as a leading Banker he has to deal with and be concerned with and then he basically at the end said in so many words my real concern are none of those but two more beyond that number one nuclear prolifer operation or Hardware military number one number two structural inflation I know nothing about the military so I'm not I can't I'm I'm not qualified to talk about that but structural inflation I'm a business guy and I just don't see how America can handle the structural inflation that will come if Trump were to do what he did 60% tariff and not just on China now also in Canada on Mexico and and the rest of the world I believe that we're entering into a huge period of rising inflation not just in a cyclical basis I don't watch I just saw before coming in here one of the fat governor was saying that he's now leaning towards maybe in December have one more cut uh if there's no uh nothing unto what happening this I don't read that that clouds my mind in understanding the overall picture I'm not a Trader I don't look at the screen every day and buy and sell bonds and currency and and interest rate swaps and what have you I don't so what I am really concerned is that the structural inflation that will result will be so severe that he who in inflation would be tremendous and he who has the most debt and America has a lot of debt would have to face the music and so I think that um it is no longer like 1946 where America can deal with anybody at will that is not the case anymore and it is probably good that Europe Rose Japan Rose china Rose India is rising Vietnam is rising and America has learned to adjust to a new world with America still by far being the top leader economically militarily and if you are wise politically but My worry is that America is painting herself to a corner last year I was in the Middle East 6 times I've been going to the Middle East for 49 years the last 49 years and I'm there all the time and the former uh Central Bank governor of Israel was sitting right here but I go to Arab countries more than I go to Israel these days and they told me last year four Minister level person from four different countries Egypt Saudi Arabia UAE and Israel told me that America is no longer the primary player in this region I I felt sad to hear that and then two weeks ago I had three ladies and gentlemen at my office the same room where I host it hang uh for dinner and that is baroso the former president of the European commission uh uh the the former foreign minister of uh of um Spain arancha Gonzalez who is now the dean of the Sans pole in Paris and then a gentleman from the secret former Secretary General of the Foreign Affairs of France who was successively the French ambassador to Japan UK Germany and China and I I said this I made a statement over dinner I said from what I can observe I worry that America is also retreating from Europe and the signs to me are quite obvious what was their reaction the reaction was Zero no reaction that means nobody disputed my statement and that is very telling these three are truly leaders of Europe in many many ways relating to International Affairs and so it saddened me as an American citizen to see America's position in the world being undercut by ourselves nobody can undercut America just like the US dollar nobody can damage a US dollar except one country and if you say it's China you don't know what the heck you are talking about it's only the United States that can undermine the US dollar and over the last 30 years America has been doing double time it seems to undercut the supremacy of the US dollar and now I don't understand how it can be good for America or indeed anywhere in the world I believe something that nobody uh Mo most people don't believe the same way as I do and that is even China people think that China oh they the R&B will replace a US dollar ladies and gentlemen if you believe so as far as I'm concerned you don't you don't know anything about China even China don't mind having a US dollar being the leading currency because it keeps more stable environment economically uh International scene so I think that it is you know very sad that what I observe today um even the international police it is you may not like the police but it's better to have a police than not have a police as long as the police is not overbearing and I'm afraid that sometimes it gets a little overbearing and so I think that you know um we are entering into a period of the world that is so complicated that I have never seen before so eight years ago I gave a talk at the University of CH Chicago on eight ways to damage mankind to a group of graduate students and sorry to say all eight of them is being played out in front of my eyes and that is really very sad and to me dangerous and that's why I tell my son who was now 42 when she was when he was 32 I said him I said to him one day I said son I don't admire your generation my generation is the luckiest your generation is Doom uh maybe I maybe I said enough.

Lien-Hang Nguyen

我們不能以悲傷的語氣結束我們的談話，我確實想問最後一個問題，我們將再次與亨利·基辛格博士一起完成這個話題，我想知道是否會重新提出你關於個人外交的觀點，以及歷史代理人在翻開劇本開啟新篇章方面的重要性，首先，我確定的一個人實際上是我們韋瑟黑德東亞研究所第 75 屆慶典的主講人，所以我們在二月份來到這裡，所以差不多快一年了，約翰·凱里談到了他與他的同行在兒童身上的工作，這是兩個競爭對手之間合作做出改變的一個很好的例子，但也許不是約翰·卡里，也許下一個亨利·基辛格可能是羅尼·切德，就改變貿易而言，你一直在喝伏特加，那是什麼，你一直在喝伏特加，我一直在喝，我們還沒有開始，羅尼，沒有，但是說真的，您是否認為需要某個人來開啟一個新時代，而這個人可能是特朗普政府中的一員，我不知道，正如您在向基辛格博士致敬時所說的那樣，未來的幾代人，我們認為您知道大約 10 年後，我們將真正看到一個新的篇章，那將再次成為朋友和合作者。

Lien-Hang Nguyen

we can't end our conversation on a sad note I I do want to have one final question we're going to bring It full circle again with Dr Henry Kissinger I um wonder if there will be in bringing back your point about sort of personal diplomacy um and the importance of of historical agents in in flipping the script uh opening a new chapter initially one of the um one of the people I identified is someone that uh actually was our uh keynote speaker for the Weatherhead East Asian Institute 75th Gala so we were here in February so almost uh close to a year um and John kery spoke about his work uh with his counterpart in child and that was a real great example of collaboration between uh two competitors to make to make change um but maybe not John Cary maybe the next Henry Kissinger could be Ronnie ched in terms of making a change in the in the trade been drinking vodka what was that you have been drinking vodka I've been we haven't begun yet Ronnie no but seriously do you see that it would take um someone and who that could be in the Trump Administration I I would not know um to open a new era so that as you spoke in your tribute to Dr Kissinger uh future Generations we think you know in about 10 years um that we will actually see a new chapter and that will be one of friends and collaborators once again.

陳啟宗 

好吧，讓我說一下，你提到了約翰·肯尼迪·約翰，我不太了解他，但在我看來，他是一個非常正派的人，過去十年或二十年他在氣候領域所做的工作令人欽佩，事實上，很多年前，當他還是參議員或眾議員時，我甚至支持他，所以我認為約翰·卡里是一位很棒的紳士，但為了擁有像我提到的三個人，我向亨利·金格博士致敬，另一位是德國前總理赫爾姆·施密特和新加坡的梁宇，一個來自美國，一個來自歐洲，一個來自亞洲，對我來說，這些都是時代的產物，除非有外部環境的融合，否則沒有這種環境，就不會產生如此偉大的頭腦，在過去的 40 年裡，我一直在世界各地尋找可以讓我學習的人，沒有比他們更聰明的人，我認為我學習的最好方法是找到擁有超級智力的人，通過滲透的過程，也許我會理解一些事情，所以這就是我過去 40 年一直在做的事情，我還沒有找到任何人能接近這三位先生，正如你提到的那樣，他們三人都非常了解歷史，他們三人都以人性的視角閱讀歷史，他們不是意識形態的，他們理解意識形態，他們尊重意識形態，但在分析形勢以做出實際決定時，這三位先生是獨一無二的，現在的問題是，你的問題是，如果我們中國陷入一個真正麻煩的可怕局面，順便說一句，我沒有預見到，我可以告訴你為什麼，但無論如何，這是教授沒有問的另一個問題，告訴我們，除非有如此可怕的情況，否則這些偉大的大腦不會出現，讓我告訴你，施密特有一天對我說了什麼關於亨利·基辛格的話，我想，我很少不同意這些先生的觀點，但偶爾我會不同意他們的觀點，這是其中之一，他說亨利的問題現在他們都走了，我或許可以誠心誠意地說，亨利的問題在於他從未見過戰爭，但事實並非如此，頭盔施密特告訴我，在1941-42年，他和當時的未婚妻洛基，我知道我也認識她，他們每天都在漢堡街頭看死屍，他說這讓他對戰爭產生了恐懼，讓我們盡最大努力避免戰爭，梁宇，我們都知道在英國統治下發生了什麼，馬來西亞和新加坡分離，不得不與英國人作戰，然後不得不讓馬來西亞人，西馬來西亞人遠離，所以這兩位先生經歷了很多戰爭，但我不同意亨利也經歷過戰爭，只是他被派往歐洲後，他非常聰明，他的口音告訴她他懂德語，他最終被派往部隊解密情報，我相信基辛格參與了更多戰爭的原因是因為，順便說一下，在這三個人中，亨利對全球事務的影響力最大，原因只有一個，那就是亨利·K·J 代表美國，美國是世界領先國家，它的地位與小國截然不同，比如新加坡，如果你想發動戰爭，你沒有權利，你叫我發動戰爭，跟任何人打架，不，我滾出去，我個子小，但亨利·K 代表美國，順便說一句，美國發動的戰爭比歷史上任何人都多，這是事實，根據美國國會的調查，在 1990 年之前，190 年來，美國平均每年參與 1.1 次對外戰爭，1990 年之後是 6.1 次，這是正式記錄，所以你知道亨利代表最大的國家，最重要的國家別無選擇，他們必須做出決定，就像小國領導人必須做的那樣，所以會出現這樣的偉人，我希望不會，因為如果他們真的崛起，那就意味着世界將處於非常糟糕的狀態，比如在冷戰時期，你可能會說冷戰在某種程度上是我們已經在希望它不會發展到這樣的程度，以至於像那三位先生這樣的偉大大腦能夠崛起，那麼為什麼我認為美國回答你的問題，為什麼我不認為到最後我們中國會失控，正如我今天提到的，雙方都有足夠的力量，唯一的方法讓我先得出結論，維持和平的唯一方法是當有相對的力量平衡時，如果沒有力量平衡，一方就會利用另一方，所以只有力量平衡才能在地球上保持一定的理智和和平，有些人我知道你在想什麼，有些人說你是戰爭販子，我不是，我只是讀歷史根據人性，因此在這樣的背景下，我問了兩個問題，第一個問題很簡單，中國能打敗美國嗎？不可能。更難的問題是美國能打敗中國嗎？也就是說，美國是否完成了遏制中國權利的努力？答案很可能是否定的。如果雙方都做不到，那麼就會變成一場曠日持久的拉鋸戰，在短期內會變成一場心理戰。在這種情況下，雙方都不可能贏，但雙方都有可能輸，所以遊戲的名字就是不要輸，誰先輸誰就輸得大，這並不意味着對方也不會輸，但那是次要的，所以如果雙方都不能贏，那麼關鍵在於你如何防止自己輸，我們都知道中國今天存在經濟、政治、結構性、社會性的嚴重問題，所以如果你強迫我打賭，就像一個商人必須決定買還是不買，賣還是不賣，我認為中國在短期內處於非常不穩定的地位，但如果中國能在未來5年內克服這個困難，我認為時間可能會轉變，那麼時間可能會站在中國人這一邊，因為這不再是一個如何的遊戲你能打出多少拳，就是你能承受多少拳。在越南戰爭年代長大的我知道美國的反戰情緒很容易上升，所以如果中國能克服這個短期困難，這並不容易，那麼我認為時機可能站在中國這邊。美國也面臨着挑戰，現在新政府上台，國內和國際的挑戰可能會更加嚴峻。順便說一句，如果任何一個國家失敗了，我相信那不是因為國際事務，不是因為別人打敗了你，而是因為你打敗了自己。中國可以打敗自己。美國也可以打敗自己。這意味着中國可以打敗中國，我們可以打敗我們。從長遠來看，我認為時機可能不在美國這邊。所以我認為最好的辦法當然是我們解決所有這些問題。所以讓我得出我的最終結論，那就是美國，如果你讀過歷史，美國結束衝突的方式只有兩種，另一種是我贏你輸。第二次世界大戰冷戰伊朗戰爭我贏你輸，美國並不是一個壞贏家。然而，另一種方式是存在的，這就是我所說的朝鮮戰爭模式，美國知道如果不能取勝，那麼它就會很快撤離，比如朝鮮戰爭、越南戰爭和阿富汗戰爭，所以這不是我們以前沒有見過的，今天有人提醒我，美國自二戰以來就沒有贏過一場戰爭，我說以色列自1967年以來就沒有贏過一場戰爭，所以我認為雙方都應該清理好自己的內部，而不是在外面挑起爭端，因為歸根結底，決定你未來的是你自己的內部，而不是國際方面，儘管這很麻煩，我們都知道。

陳啟宗

well let me say this you mentioned John KY John to I don't know him that well but to me he seems to be a very decent man and what is doing in the climate area over the last decade or two has been very admirable and in fact many many year many many moons ago when he was still a senator or Congressman I I I even supported him so I think John Cary is a wonderful gentleman but in order to have people such as I mentioned three people in my tribute to um Dr Henri Dr Henry kinger the other one is helmet Schmidt the former chancellor of Germany and Liang Yu of Singapore one from us one from Europe one from Asia to me these are products of a time that unless there is the convergence of external environment without that environment such great brains do not arise and over the last 40 years I have been searching around the world on people from whom I learn not having a superior in intellect I figure the best way for me to learn is to find people who have a super intellect and by a process of uh osmosis maybe I will understand a few things so that's what I've been doing for the last 40 years and I've yet to find anyone that come close to those three gentlemen and as you alluded to it all three of them understand history extremely well and all three of them read history with the nor star of human nature they are not ideological they understand ideology they respect ideology but in analyzing the situation in order to make practical decisions th those three gentlemen are a cut of itself now the question is will the coming that your question is if us China were to get into a really Troublesome scary situation which by the way I do not foresee and I can tell you why but anyway that's another question unasked by the professor here un asking it um tell us unless there is such a terrible situation the the the such great brains don't rise let me tell you what helmet Schmidt said to me one day about Henry Kissinger which I want there's very few things I disagree with these gentlemen but once in a while I do disagree with them and this is one of them he said the problem with Henry now that they're all gone I perhaps I can say it with all good will the problem with Henry is  that he has never seen War which is not true helmet Schmidt told me how in 1941-42 he and his fiance at the time Loki I know I know her too and they were looking they were watching dead bodies on the street of Hamburg every day and he said that put in him a fear for war let's do our utmost to avoid it Liang Yu we all know what happened under the Brits the Malaysia and the house Singapore separated and and and and having to fight the Brit and then having to keep the Malaysians the West Malaysians away so the these two gentlemen saw a lot of War but I disagree that Henry also saw War just that once he was sent to Europe he was so smart and his accent tells her that he knows German and he eventually was sent to the the the the the unit to decipher whatever intelligence and the reason I believe that kisinger has been involved in more Wars is because and by the way of the three Henry has the most influence on global Affair bondone for one reason if nothing else and that is Henry K J represented the United States of America being the leading country in the world its position is very different from smaller countries let's say Singapore as an example you try to start a war you don't have the right to I I I'm you tell me to start a war to start a fight with anybody no I get the hell out of here I'm small but Henry K and represented the United States and by the way it is just a fact that America is starting more Wars than anybody has in history probably and according to the US Congressional uh survey before 1990 there were for 190 years America was involved in foreign war 1.1 times per year on average after 1990 it was 6.1 times and so this is formal records and so you know Henry represented the biggest country and the most significant important country has no choice but they have to make decisions like smaller countries leaders have to so will such great men arise let's not I hope not because if they do if they rise it means the world is going to be in such a bad shape such as during the Cold War years you may argue that cold war in some way is already with us let's hope that it would not develop to such an extent that great brains such as those three gentlemen will be able to rise and so and why do I think that the US to answer your uh question why I don't think that at the end of the day uh us China will get out of hand as I mentioned today both sides have enough power the only way let me jump to conclusion first the only way to maintain peace is when there's relative balance of power very cerian if there's no balance of power one party will take advantage of the other and so only balance of power will be able to maintain a certain sanity certain peace on Earth some people I know what you're thinking Some people say you are a warmonger I'm not I just read history according to human nature and so given that background I asked two question the first question is easy can China defeat America no way the harder question is can America defeat China meaning that it accomplished what it triying to do in containing China's rights the answer is most likely not and if both sides cannot do it then it will become a dra long dra draw out contest which become a psychological game in the short run okay so in that situation neither side can win but both sides can lose so the name of the game is not to lose whoever lose first loses big doesn't mean that the other guy may not also lose but that's secondary so if both sides cannot win it is really how you prevent yourself from losing and we all know the problem in China today economic political structural social serious and so if you have if you force me to make a bet like a businessman have to decide buy or no buy sell or no sell I say China is in a very precarious is position in the short run but if China can get over that hump in the next say 5 years I think that the time may turn then time may be on the side of the Chinese because it is no longer a game of how many punches you can throw it is how many punches you can absorb and growing up in the in the Vietnam War years I knew how anti-war sentiment can easily rise in the United States so if China can get over this short-term hump which is not easy then I think that time may be on China side America has challenges also with now the new government maybe challenges will become even more serious domestically and internationally and by the way if either country lose I believe it will not be because of international Affairs not because the other guy beat you up it's because you beat yourself up China can beat herself up America can beat herself up too meaning China can beat up China us can beat up us and in the Long Haul I think that time may not be in the US side so I think that the best of course is for us to resolve all that thing so let me jump to my final conclusion and that is America if you were to read history America ends conflicts in only one of two ways the other is I win you lose second world war Cold War Iran War I win you lose and America is not a bad winner the other way however exists and that is what I call the Korean War model where America knows that it cannot win then it will very quickly get the heck out of there that's Korean War that's Vietnam War that's Afghanistan so it is not like we have not seen it before somebody reminded me today America has not won a war since World War II I said like Israel has never won a war since 1967 and so so I think that both sides should in my opinion clean up their own house internally instead of picking a fight outwardly because at the end of the day it is your own house inwardly that will determine your future not the international side of things although that is very Troublesome and we all know.

Lien-Hang Nguyen

願意回答觀眾的提問，但我想制定一些基本規則，所以請先自我介紹，然後提出問題，而不僅僅是陳述。

Lien-Hang Nguyen

willing to take questions from the audience for just a little bit uh but I want to lay down some ground rules so please introduce yourself first and and have a question not just a statement.

觀眾

嗨，陳先生，非常感謝你今天的演講，我做了很多筆記，我叫利亞姆，我是哥倫比亞大學海洋科學系一年級學生，正在攻讀公共政策碩士，我是美籍華人，我想問的是，你說你告訴你的兒子，你們是最幸運的一代，我們都註定要失敗，那麼你對我們這樣的年輕一代有什麼建議，我們應該做個末日論者，看腦根視頻，有什麼建議，謝謝。

An audience

hi um Mr Chan thank you so much for um The Talk today took a lot of notes um my name is Liam I'm a first year um Columbia sea student um studying master of public policy I'm Chinese American my question for you is you said um you told your son that you are the luckiest generation and we are all doomed so what ADV do you have for younger Generations like ourselves on just what to do should we just be doomers and watch brain root videos what what's the recommendation thank you.

陳啟宗

謝謝你的提問，我很感激，首先我想說的是，為什麼我認為我這一代人是最幸運的，我出生於1949年12月，所以我是嬰兒潮一代，而且很快戰爭債務就還清了，除非你碰巧在那些共產主義國家，否則這些國家的經濟都在崛起，對於我們這些自由世界的人來說，可以說，我們正在享受經濟增長，沒有明天，你有一個叫做學士學位的學位，你不必來自哥倫比亞，你可以從任何一所小學院獲得，你會找到一份工作，當我們長大的時候，天空是藍色的，水是乾淨的，土壤是沒有污染的，天哪，這是一個美好的世界，發生了什麼，我這一代人把它搞砸了，我們甚至沒有向你們這一代人道歉，今天，大多數國家的債務堆積如山，我們不可能償還，所以對不起，禪，你的工作，你把它還清吧，天空不再是藍色的，水被污染了，土壤很糟糕，空氣很糟糕，你們都有所有這些問題為了保護自然資源，我們小時候擁有豐富的資源，但我們耗盡了很多資源，你們必須利用技術來應對，使用任何手段，對吧，所以，我很抱歉，順便說一句，你們這一代人正進入一個非常困難的時期，我相信以下只是一個人的觀點，第一，學習不僅僅是為了找工作，學習是為了讓自己成為一個更好的人，所以不管你不只是看看外面的世界，它是好的，它是壞的，對吧，學習本身就是一種樂趣，是一種快樂，所以享受你的四年，你三年半的情況，對吧，這是第一，第二，我們如何調整自己的心理是至關重要的，可悲的是，今天精神疾病幾乎是一種流行病，去年，一位哈佛醫學院的教授對我說，他說他所在大學 80% 的學生，或者說幾乎 80% 的學生需要某種形式的心理諮詢，我在南加州大學董事會任職，直到五六年前，董事會提出了關於學生心理健康的問題學生，大學，你不需要阿姆斯特朗教授，阿姆斯特朗校長告訴你，這是一個非常複雜的地方，沒有什麼比這更重要的事情會被帶到董事會，精神疾病就是其中之一，這件事沒有幫助，順便說一句，澳大利亞現在限制16歲或16歲以下的人使用網絡空間的時間，中國大約三年前限制孩子們玩電子遊戲，周末不能玩兩個小時左右，而不是工作日，當時每個人都在譴責中國，中國人，今天人們在譴責澳大利亞人，你想打賭，5年後，世界上大多數國家都會有完全相同的政策，因為它導致的問題不是唯一的原因，但它是一個很大的原因，它是如此嚴重，所以我只用一個，我可以給你，你知道很多其他的，我只是用心理問題作為你們這一代人必須面對的問題之一，我認為保持健康的內心心理也很重要，現在顯然家庭已經破裂世界各地都有，包括中國，但亞洲可能沒有西方那麼嚴重，歸根結底，這些東西對人類至關重要，所以從紀念館時代開始復興，如果我們要摧毀這些東西或忽視這些東西，對人類來說就不是好事，所以我認為歸根結底，我很高興我的兒子，我的大兒子婚姻美滿，他們沒有孩子，我和我的妻子很高興他們沒有孩子，我們沒有給他們任何壓力，因為我不想看到孫子或孫女在今天的世界裡長大，我的另一個兒子還沒有結婚，40歲，但他上周從洛杉磯帶回了一個很棒的女孩，家庭仍然很重要，所以我看到我的朋友彼得·傑蘇和他的妻子芭芭拉在這裡，女士們先生們，這是一個美麗的場景，可悲的是，你看到的越來越少，我只是希望你們這一代人能夠足夠聰明，能夠維護家庭結構，這樣你和你的孩子才能過上更好的生活。更加堅韌地應對你或我無法控制的世界。

陳啟宗

Thank you for that question I appreciate it let me first say why do I think that my generation is the luckiest when I grew I was born in 1949 December so I'm a baby boomer and and pretty soon War debt were paid down countries were Rising economically unless you happen to be in one of those communist countries for those of us in the Free World so to speak we were enjoying economic rise L there's no tomorrow you have a degree called bachelor's degree you don't have to be from Colombia it has it can be from any little college and you will get a job right when we grew up the sky was Blue the water was clean the soil was unpolluted man it was a good it was a beautiful world what happened my generation muck it up and we don't even apologize to your generation today the debt is so piled up in most countries that there's no possibility of our paying back so sorry Zen your job you pay it back right sky is no longer blue and the water is polluted the soil is terrible the air is bad well all those kind of problems you guys have to take care of Natural Resources we we had abundance when we grew up we exhausted a lot of it you guys have to deal with it use technology use whatever means right so I'm sorry I'm apologizing by the way uh your generation is entering into a very difficult period that said I believe the following it's just one man's view okay number one studying is not just to get a job studying is to make you a better person so whether you don't just don't just look at the out outside world it is good it's bad right studying in itself is a pleasure is a joy so enjoy your four years your three and a half in your case right that's number one number two how we adjust our own psyche is critical the sad thing is today mental illness is almost a pandemic and I had a Harvard Medical School professor said to me last year he said 80% of the students or almost 80% of the students at his univers her University needs some form of psychological counseling I serve on the board of USC University of Southern California until five six years ago and it was brought to the board about the mental health of the student the universities you don't need Professor Armstrong president Armstrong to tell you that is an extraordinar complicated Place nothing that is less than very important get brought to the board and mental illness was one of them the this thing doesn't help and by the way Australia is now limiting people 16 year old or below right on on on the on the on the time on cyberspace China about three years ago limited the kids from playing video games and what have you to what two hours or something on the weekends not on the week days in those days everybody is condemning the China the the Chinese and today people are condemning the Australians you want to bet that 5 years from now most of the country in the world will have exactly the same policy because the problem that it contributed to it's not the only cause but it's a big cause it's so severe severe so I'm just using one I can give you you know many other I'm just using the psychological problem as one uh that your generation has to face and I think that to keep a healthy internal uh psyche as well is important now obviously family is something that has broken up broken down uh everywhere in the world including China but perhaps less so in Asia than in the west these are at the end of the day critical to man's so Revival since time in Memorial and if we were to destroy these things or neglect these things it cannot be good for mankind so I think at the end of the dayyou know uh  I'm so glad that my son my older son is happily married uh they have no children and my wife and I are just very happy that they have no children we don't give them any pressure uh because I don't want to see a grandson or granddaughter growing up in a world world like today my other son is not married 40 but he brought back a wonderful girl uh last last week from Los Angeles well hey family still matters and so I see uh my friend Peter Jesu and Barbara his wife here hey ladies and gentlemen it's a beautiful scene the sad thing is that you see less and less of it I just hope that your generation will be smart enough to maintain family structure uh in order for yourself and your children to have a better life and be more resilience in dealing with a world that is beyond your control or that of mine.

Lien-Hang Nguyen

我只想補充一點，這不是你們這一代人，我希望 Ronnie 能解決可憐的 X 世代的問題，因為我們似乎無法真正取代嬰兒潮一代，但我們必須讓位於千禧一代，在我們之後，我們似乎永遠處於幕後，我們永遠是 Bri，永遠不會成為新娘。

Lien-Hang Nguyen

and I would just add it's not your generation I want Ronnie to address poor Gen X because we can't seem to actually take over from Baby Boomers uh but we'll have to give way to the Millennials and after us it seems we're forever in the wings we're forever Bri made never the bride.

陳啟宗

幾個月前我退休了，因為我覺得我兒子很優秀，他接手的時候已經 41 歲了，我是個自由人，太好了，你們怎麼不祝賀我呢。

陳啟宗

I retired a few months ago because I think my son is very good he's 41 at that time he took over I'm a free man wonderful how come you're not congratulating me

Lien-Hang Nguyen

Another question

觀眾 

嗨，非常感謝您的啟發性談話，我叫菲利，我來自新加坡，我是哥倫比亞大學大四學生，我正在學習認知科學和計算機科學，哥倫比亞大學，哦，哥倫比亞，哦，對不起，非常好，所以我認為你對美國和中國的關係做出了非常透徹的診斷，我基本同意你所說的，但我的問題實際上是我們如何如何實現你希望在美國看到的那種動態，因為例如我們如何如何實現它，因為實現是的，好的，因為你提到美國現在的行為非常狹隘，因為它只考慮自己的經濟需求，自己的貿易需求，自己的政治內部動態，但你提出的建議是，它如何要求美國要求我們考慮其開明的自身利益，這是非常困難的事情，所以我的問題是，美國如何擺脫狹隘的自身利益，更多地從開明的自身利益的角度來思考 謝謝。

An audience

hi thank you so much for your enlightening conversation my name is philli I'm from Singapore I'm a senior year student at Columbia University I'm studying cognitive science and computer science what university Columbia like oh Columbia oh sorry very good so I think you offered a really pent diag diagnosis of what's of what the relationship between the US and China is and I mostly agree with what you're saying but my question really is how do we how do we actuate the kind of of dynamic that you want to see in the US because for instance how do we what how do we actuate it because actuate yeah for okay because you mentioned that the US right now is acting in very in a very narrow self-interest because it's looking at its own economic needs his own trade needs his own political um internal Dynamics but what you are proposing is something of how can it's kind of asking the US asking the us to look at its enlightened self-interest which is something which is very difficult to do so my question is how how can the US move away from its narrow self-interest and think more in terms of enlightened self-interest thank you.

陳啟宗 

謝謝，我總是用這句話，我很悲觀，但我並不消極，因為消極就沒有未來，所以無論我贏不贏，我都會積極地盡我所能，盡我所能，我做得好嗎？我不知道我是否能有所作為，我不知道我能做什麼，我和任何人都不一樣，但如果我不做，你不做，他不做，她不做，世界就註定要滅亡，所以我認為我們所有人都有責任，這會有所作為嗎？我希望，如果我們中有足夠多的人做了一些好事，也許會有所幫助，你如何改變美國，或者你如何改變任何國家，坦率地說，我幾乎沒有希望，我只是認為事情必須發展，我們在每一步都盡最大努力，希望能稍微控制一下，這樣它就不會失控，但這會從根本上改變嗎？我不這麼認為，我再次從歷史中得出這樣的結論：像美國這樣的大國幾乎不可能處於瀕臨崩潰，但不會掉下來，所以如果它必須掉下來，就讓它掉下來吧，這不是世界末日，美國將生存下來，美國會做得很好，其他國家，比如中國，也會做得很好，他們可能面臨嚴峻的挑戰，甚至可能發生可怕的事情，他們過去已經經歷過很多，但他們還是會活下去，所以這取決於人們過自己的生活，所以我認為，順便說一句，讓我們彼此多一點尊重，尊重與我們不同的人，如果我們總是說我比你好，我是標準，那麼這是一個非常危險的立場，美國喜歡說民主自由，你知道所有這些東西，我也喜歡，你現在可以看出我是個大嘴巴，我需要一點空間，一點自由，才能在這個世界上生存，所以我很享受，我很感激，但話雖如此，對我們來說，說我們是標準，每個人都必須像我們一樣，坦率地說，這是違背歷史的，違背人性的，如果你能以一種友好的方式說服別人，就不會發生這種事隨着時間的推移，影響他人，這是我們所能期望的最好結果，所以我沒有試圖改變世界的宏偉計劃，我不想讓這裡所有的大學生氣餒，特別是當你足夠聰明可以去哥倫比亞時，你知道你認為你可以征服世界，我 74 歲，快 7 75 歲了，所以，即使在我年輕的時候，我也沒有夢想過，我只是試着了解我周圍的世界並生存下來，希望如此，順便說一下，這樣我生活得更快樂，我不是被動的，沒有人可以指責我被動，我和以前一樣活躍，儘管我比以往任何時候都更悲觀。

陳啟宗

thank you I always use this phrase and that is I'm pessimistic but I'm not passive because you are passive you have no future so whether I win whether I don't win I'm active trying my best to do my little part am I doing a good job I don't know will I make any difference I don't know I have no grandure of what I can do I'm and nobody but if I don't do you don't do he doesn't do she doesn't do the world is doomed so I think that you know all of us have this responsibility will it make a difference I hope that if enough of us do something good maybe it will help how do you change America or how do you change any country frankly I have very little hope I just think that things have to play out and we do our best in every step of the way to hopefully restrain it a little so it doesn't go off the deep end but will that fundamentally change I don't think so again I draw from history that it is not it is almost impossible for a big country like America to be at the brink and not fall off and so if it has to fall off let it fall off it won't be the end of the day America Will Survive America will do okay so will other countries like China China will do okay too they may have serious challenges ahead and even terrible things happen possibly and they have had had a lot of it in the past but they are they will they have to live on so it's up to the people to live their own life and so I think and by the way let's have a little bit more respect for one another respect for people who are different from what we are if we always say that I am better than you I am the standard then that is a very dangerous position to take America is fond of saying you know democracy Freedom you know all that stuff I like it too you can tell by now I'm a loud mouth I need a little a little room a little freedom in order to survive in this world so I enjoy that I appreciate it but that said for us to say that we are the standard everybody has to be like us is frankly against history against human nature it won't happen if you if we can persuade others in a kind nice way overtime influencing others that's the best we can hope for so I I have no grandure of trying to change the world I don't want to discourage all the University students here especially when you're smart enough to go to Colombia that you know you think you can take on the world well I'm 74 uh and almost 7 75 and so uh even when I was young I have no dream of grur I just try to understand the world around me and survive uh and hopefully uh well by the way uh I live a lot happier that way I'm not I'm not passive no one can accuse me for being passive I'm as active as in as ever although I am pessimistic more than ever before.

Lien-Hang Nguyen

我本來想說，我們的演講就以這些智慧之言結束，各位，我將允許 Ronnie 繼續在這裡交流一會兒，因為他是我的客人，所以如果有問題，請隨時上台親自向 Ronnie 提問，但我覺得我應該讓他在這裡當着大家的面集體回答，所以請和我一起為 Ronnie Chan 鼓掌。

Lien-Hang Nguyen

I was going to say we're going to end on those words of wisdom everyone I'm going to allow Ronnie because he's my guest to just mingle here for a little a little bit longer so for those who have questions please feel free to come up uh to the stage to ask them personally to Ronnie but I feel like I should let him off the hook in terms of being here uh in front of everyone to answer collectively so please join me in a round of applause for Ronnie Chan.