1. Poll results

Pennsylvania: Trump vs Biden

Emerson, 10/4-10/5. 688 LV.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/pennsylvania-2020-biden-holds-edge-in-home-state-trump-closing-gap

https://cdn.filestackcontent.com/D82NOBl8R5aRPRKKJAMx

Summary

1. 2020 Presidential race. PA

1) Poll results:

Biden 50.1% / Trump 45.4%

with Push undecided: Biden 50.9% / Trump 47.4%

2) Adjusted %(Push Undecided): Trump 49.1% / Biden 48.3%. Trump +0.8%

2. Adjusted %

1) Party ID %

considered about realistic Pennsylvania Party ID % Based on Exit Poll 2016/2018 + Trends(VBM mid results+Party ID % Statistics in PA)

My Model(With leaners): DEM 44.5% / REP 44% / IND 11.5%

My Model(Exclude leaners): DEM 42% / REP 40% / IND 18%

(1) Trump vs Biden

Exclude leaners model & Push Undecided

Trump: DEM(42%)x18.35% + REP(40%)x86.7% + IND(18%)x37.37%= 49.11%

Biden: DEM(42%)x81.04% + REP(40%)x12.55% + IND(18%)x51.52% = 48.33%

P.S.

According to Emerson Polling Pennsylvania Among those planning to vote for President Trump, 81% plan to vote in person on election day and 19% plan to vote by mail compared to 64% of Joe Biden voters who plan to vote by mail and 36% plan to vote in person on election day.