| 俄羅斯大勢已去精氣神沒了正在解體的路上版圖都有多人提前劃好了 |
| 送交者: Pascal 2022年05月12日18:50:53 於 [五 味 齋] 發送悄悄話 |
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Full of Zing, Full of Zest, Full of Zowie 一身的精、氣、神 — Mad Wednesday 瘋狂的星期三 影片 1950
Five and a half years of Russia’s war against Ukraine and other democracies show clearly that the international community needs to change its strategy.
Our actions must become offensive and have as a clear final goal the disintegration of the Russian Federation. It is the only effective long-term solution that would benefit the overwhelming majority of countries.
Let me enumerate just a few arguments in favor of this proposal:
• For the first time since world war two the borders of a sovereign state were annexed by force under the disguise of a pseudo-referendum and the pretext of "protection of the rights of national minorities" and "historical justice". According to the same logic, any future annexations by any other aggressor could be justified. No country in the world can now feel secure unless the original culprit is punished.
• Russia habitually violates bilateral agreements, blatantly ignores international law and international humanitarian law, refuses to abide by verdicts of the International Court of Justice and other UN courts, International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, European Court of Human Rights, Stockholm Arbitration, abuses its veto right at the UN Security Council to cover up its crimes. Thus, Moscow deliberately causes steady erosion of the postwar system of international relations, of the law and trust between nations.
• Attack by Russia on nuclear-free Ukraine severely undermined non-proliferation regimes encouraging other countries not to give up or to acquire weapons of mass destruction. The cases of North Korea or Iran may be just the first to be followed by others.
• Moscow creates hotspots of instability and violence all around the globe, in particular along its own periphery, in Syria and Libya, Venezuela, on the Balkans, on the Korean peninsula, in African regions.
• Kremlin is directly commanding and supplying its armed forces and mercenaries in Donbas. There are proofs of its involvement in the creation and functioning of ISIS, the arming of Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah. Downing of MH17, poisoning of Litvinenko and Skripal and other GRU killings in Europe reveal also the arrogant state terrorism by the Russian Federation.
• The Russian administration on Ukraine’s occupied territories commits murders, tortures, mass deportations of the Ukrainian and Tatar populations. In Syria, Russia bombs civilians driving up waves of migration into Europe.
• Russian security services have been caught shipping narcotics from Latin America and Asia into USA and EU.
• Moscow’s hybrid methods are meant to destroy the European Union and NATO, undermine fundamental democratic values, spread political corruption and support organized crime.
• Moscow interferes regularly into the process of elections and referenda, in particular in Ukraine, USA, UK, the Netherlands, South Africa, Madagascar, Indonesia, Northern Macedonia, Moldova spreading propaganda, disinformation and sowing discord and conflicts in societies.
• Russia discredited the values of honest sport by state-sponsoring of the doping.
• Russia has no respect for private property. Its usual form of "cooperation" with foreign companies is to attract their funds and technologies and, after the new investment is fully operational, to raid it and turn it into the hands of Kremlin tycoons.
Any attempts to pacify Russia and to do business as usual leads only to its increased arrogance, as was the case with the return of the Russian delegation to PACE. Any attempts to seek a civilized modus vivendi with Russians are a priori doomed to fail, because such a solution runs counter to the basic expansionistic mindset of the Kremlin regime, regardless of the surname of its current president and even irrespective of ideology or form of governance. The history of Moscow czars, Russian empire, USSR and modern Russian Federation reflects almost identical methods of both internal politics and foreign policy behavior. The Russian Federation within its current borders and with its current resources is not able to ever become a normal civilized nation.
On the other hand, a Russia shrunk to the size of its current European territory, deprived of WMDs and of its permanent seat in the UN Security Council, has a big chance to become a responsible regional player, maybe even become a NATO or EU member, in peace with all its neighbors.
After the reformatting of the Russian territory and emergence of newly independent states, the above problems will most likely either disappear or become much less acute. A similar waning of the destructive role of Russia was observed in the 1990s, when its KGB system was still in disarray following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
After the disintegration of RF, its natural resources and infrastructure will not disappear, but fall into ownership of newly independent states whose political culture can be shaped under the influence of international community thus enabling new civilized contracts and partnerships.
Additional argument in favor of Russia’s disintegration is the opportunity for occupied neighbors to finally get back their annexed territories, e.g. for Finland, Baltic states, Poland, China, Japan, Georgia and Ukraine.
It is important to note that the means to bring about Russia’s disintegration do not need to include military actions. The author of this article by no means calls for any extremist on any other illegal activity contrary to international law. It will be sufficient simply to isolate Russia by introducing real economic sanctions that would include: personal sanctions against its top leaders with assets freeze and travel ban; harsh restrictions for energy, banking and military industrial sectors; ban on sale of any high technologies, dramatic lowering of oil prices. That is all. Just shut them out and let them rot, under tight international control. The Russians will do it to themselves.
The most difficult task will be obviously to secure the Russian nuclear stockpile and other weapons of mass destructions. However, the experience of disarmament after the demise of the USSR testifies that this task is not impossible. It would be prudent to maintain constant lines of communication with the Russian military to prevent any unintentional fallacies.
The new foreign policy, economic and political-military strategy to contain, deter and force Russia to peace by means of its controlled disintegration needs to receive tacit consensus and support of key global players – USA, EU, China, and to be reflected by default in their future everyday policies. The time has come for the last evil empire to fall down. As a result, the world will sigh in deep relief, many of its acute problems miraculously vanishing.
Mr. Aleksandrovych has been Ukraine’s Ambassador to Serbia since 2015.
俄羅斯的解體必須成為國際社會的戰略方針。
俄羅斯對烏克蘭和其他民主國家長達五年半的戰爭清楚地表明，國際社會需要改變其戰略。
我們的行動必須具有攻擊性，並將俄羅斯聯邦的解體作為明確的最終目標。這是唯一能惠及絕大多數國家的有效長期解決方案。
讓我列舉一些支持這個提議的論據：
• 自二次世界大戰以來，主權國家的邊界首次以偽公投為幌子，以“保護少數民族權利”和“歷史正義”為藉口，以武力吞併。根據同樣的邏輯，未來任何其他侵略者的吞併都是合理的。除非最初的罪魁禍首受到懲罰，否則世界上沒有一個國家現在可以感到安全。
• 俄羅斯習慣性地違反雙邊協定，公然無視國際法和國際人道主義法，拒絕遵守國際法院和其他聯合國法院、國際海洋法法庭、歐洲人權法院、斯德哥爾摩仲裁、濫用其在聯合國安理會的否決權來掩蓋其罪行。因此，莫斯科故意造成戰後國際關係體系、法律和國家間信任的持續侵蝕。
• 俄羅斯對無核烏克蘭的攻擊嚴重破壞了鼓勵其他國家不要放棄或獲取大規模殺傷性武器的不擴散制度。朝鮮或伊朗的案例可能只是第一個被其他人關注的案例。
• 莫斯科在全球範圍內製造不穩定和暴力的熱點，特別是在其周邊地區、敘利亞和利比亞、委內瑞拉、巴爾幹半島、朝鮮半島和非洲地區。
• 克里姆林宮直接指揮和供應其在頓巴斯的武裝部隊和僱傭軍。有證據表明它參與了伊斯蘭國的創建和運作，塔利班、哈馬斯、真主黨的武裝。MH17 墜落、利特維年科和斯克里帕爾中毒以及歐洲其他 GRU 殺戮事件也揭示了俄羅斯聯邦傲慢的國家恐怖主義。
• 俄羅斯政府在烏克蘭被占領土上對烏克蘭和韃靼人實施謀殺、酷刑、大規模驅逐。在敘利亞，俄羅斯轟炸平民，推動了歐洲移民潮。
• 俄羅斯安全部門被發現將毒品從拉丁美洲和亞洲運往美國和歐盟。
• 莫斯科的混合方法旨在摧毀歐盟和北約，破壞基本的民主價值觀，傳播政治腐敗並支持有組織的犯罪。
• 莫斯科經常干預選舉和公民投票進程，特別是在烏克蘭、美國、英國、荷蘭、南非、馬達加斯加、印度尼西亞、北馬其頓、摩爾多瓦傳播宣傳、虛假信息並在社會中播下不和諧和衝突。
• 俄羅斯通過國家贊助的興奮劑來詆毀誠實體育的價值。
• 俄羅斯不尊重私有財產。它與外國公司的通常“合作”形式是吸引他們的資金和技術，並在新投資全面投入運營後對其進行突襲，並將其轉入克里姆林宮大亨手中。
任何試圖安撫俄羅斯和照常做生意的嘗試只會導致它更加傲慢，就像俄羅斯代表團返回 PACE 的情況一樣。任何試圖與俄羅斯人尋求文明方式的嘗試都註定要失敗，因為這樣的解決方案與克里姆林宮政權的基本擴張主義心態背道而馳，無論其現任總統的姓氏如何，甚至無論意識形態或治理形式如何. 莫斯科沙皇、俄羅斯帝國、蘇聯和現代俄羅斯聯邦的歷史反映了幾乎相同的內部政治和外交政策行為方法。俄羅斯聯邦在其目前的邊界內並以其現有的資源永遠無法成為一個正常的文明國家。
另一方面，一個縮小到目前歐洲領土規模、被剝奪大規模殺傷性武器和聯合國安理會常任理事國席位的俄羅斯，有很大機會成為負責任的區域參與者，甚至可能成為北約或歐盟成員國，與所有鄰居和平相處。
在俄羅斯領土重新格式化和新獨立國家出現之後，上述問題很可能會消失或變得不那麼嚴重。在 1990 年代觀察到俄羅斯破壞性作用的類似減弱，當時其克格勃系統在蘇聯解體後仍處於混亂狀態。
RF 解體後，其自然資源和基礎設施不會消失，而是屬於新獨立國家的所有權，這些國家的政治文化可以在國際社會的影響下形成，從而促成新的文明契約和夥伴關係。
支持俄羅斯解體的另一個論據是，被占領的鄰國有機會最終收回其吞併的領土，例如芬蘭、波羅的海國家、波蘭、中國、日本、格魯吉亞和烏克蘭。
值得注意的是，導致俄羅斯解體的手段不需要包括軍事行動。這篇文章的作者絕不會在任何其他違反國際法的非法活動中呼籲任何極端分子。僅僅通過引入真正的經濟制裁來孤立俄羅斯就足夠了，這些制裁包括：對其最高領導人的個人制裁，包括資產凍結和旅行禁令；對能源、銀行和軍事工業部門的嚴格限制；禁止出售任何高科技產品，大幅降低油價。就這些。把它們關在門外，讓它們在嚴格的國際控制下腐爛。俄羅斯人會為自己做這件事。
最艱巨的任務顯然是確保俄羅斯的核武庫和其他大規模殺傷性武器的安全。然而，蘇聯解體後的裁軍經驗證明，這項任務並非不可能。謹慎的做法是與俄羅斯軍方保持持續的溝通渠道，以防止任何無意的謬誤。
新的外交政策、經濟和政治軍事戰略通過控制性的解體來遏制、威懾和迫使俄羅斯走向和平，需要得到全球主要參與者——美國、歐盟、中國的默契和支持，並在默認情況下得到體現在他們未來的日常政策中。最後一個邪惡帝國垮台的時候到了。結果，世界將深深地鬆了一口氣，許多嚴重的問題奇蹟般地消失了。
Aleksandrovych 先生自 2015 年起擔任烏克蘭駐塞爾維亞大使。
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