Today, however ravaged by the pandemic, America remains the world’s largest market.* The USA is where China and other exporter nations compete to unload their products. Competition means that production costs have to be cut as deeply as possible. 

Working people in exporter nations will be bringing home less and less. Consequently, they will have to consume less and less. At the same time, they will also have to save more and more for a rainy day if they can afford to do so.

The downward pressure on the wage comes with the downward pressure on demand. This being the case, a large exporter nation like China has no good reason to invite foreign competition, no matter what and how it says to the contrary in the media. 

In the meantime, China is more than willing to take in more foreign asset investment (FAI), hoping that more jobs would be created for its hard-pressed youths in particular. But, FAI cuts both ways. Yes, it may be a stimulus to China's job market. On the flip side, however, FAI will also pump more hot air into China's asset bubble. A bubble economy is no fun when it pops.

Here is a friendly reminder: Every bubble pops, sooner or later, and probably sooner.

China cannot afford to lose America which yields to Beijing huge trade surpluses on top of other benefits such as "tech transfer." That's why Beijing has to take cheap money printed by Washington. This may sound like a leap of faith on China's part, but here is the reality: USD accounts for 61% of the world's currency reserves, compared to RMB's meager share of 2% (International Monetary Fund's 2019 report).

The world is struggling with weak demand, day and night. Guess who is smiling?

--- by Lingyang Jiang

* The EU is arguably the world's largest market, but it is not a nation. It is a large group of European nations.

疫情下的經濟

今天，飽受疫情煎熬的美國依然是世上最大市場。* 所有出口國都爭相在美市傾銷貨品。競爭的結果、是競相削減產品成本。

出口國的生產者不免減薪，生產者消費力減弱，同時又要在能力可及時儘量增加儲蓄應急。

出口國國內工資的下行壓力，直接導致國內需求的下行壓力。現實如此，象中國這樣的出口大國當然會嚴拒外來競爭，即使口頭上、傳媒間怎樣彈唱開放國內市場的高調。

同時，中國又戮力爭取外來投資注進國內資產(FAI)，其目的在於興旺消費，推高需求，因而促增職位，減輕對尤其是年輕人的就業壓力。這是可以理解的。問題是，外資會更刺激國內資產炒賣，令資產泡沫越吹越大。如果限定外來投資者必須跟從北京指示投資，又會嚇跑他們。怎麼辦？

外資繼續吹大資產泡沫，泡沫就更快會爆破。不引進外資刺激勞工市場，就業壓力就會不勝負荷。

不管怎樣凸顯強國國力，北京還是要依賴美國市場，還是要以血汗製成品、來換取華府印出來的“廉價”美鈔。現實是、在全球外匯儲備方面，美元占61%，人民幣只占2% (據2019年國際貨幣基金組織年報)。

千錯萬錯，錯在全球需求疲弱；疲弱主因，就是疫情。資產泡沫為疫情經濟鑲金。出口國勞動者，較諸入口國勞動者，更缺社會福利保障。在復甦官話背後，誰在微笑？

*歐盟或許是世上最大巿場，不過它是代表眾邦，本身並非一個國家。