呵, 不敢當 :-) |
送交者: 小寒* 2009月05月05日09:04:12 於 [股市財經] 發送悄悄話 |
回 答: 請教小寒 由 Seawaves 於 2009-05-05 05:08:49 |
The stress test is based on many economic data and conditions, I don\'t think the stock market level is an important factor in the test, or if at all. But the recent market rally certainly has made it easier for banks to sell assets and raise capital.
Not sure how the market will react to the test result, it depends on what\'s in the result, which may be very little. This rally seems to have many legs, we do see some sideline money flow into the market. With all the stimulus $$ every country has put in, it has to have a short-term positive impact to the stock market. It\'s unrealistic to think that none of these plans will work. The government still have bullets, at least for now. The following strategies may worth a look, I think they are safer than betting on the directions of the stock market. 1. Zero short-term interest rates and a positively slopped yield curve is gold for traditional banking business in a long run. Which banks will survive, be benefited, and become the winner down the road ??? 2. US treasuries (notes and bonds) will weaken. 3. USD will weaken against the currencies of young commodities_rich countries, Australia, Canada, Brazil. (diversify into other currencies) 4. Commodity prices will raise as USD weakens, therefore commodities producers\' share price will raise. (buy some commodities etfs, and your favor producers) |
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