房利美生存的代價到底有多高

房利美繼續病懨懨，已經混到需要賣Tax Credits的份上。即使如此，還是需要政府繼續輸血。在公布自己的第三季的繼續虧損之後，已經明確開口，需要納稅人再慷慨地注入150億美元。這已經是房利美第四度向我們要錢了，是可忍孰不可忍，這個窟窿到底有多大、多深，我們納稅人到底需要為它最後承擔多大的代價才行？

還是沒有人知道這個問題的答案。

房利美第三季虧損，繼續高達197.6億美元，雖然比去年同期的294.1億美元低不少，但是，在金融危機“已經過去”的今天，還不得不面臨如此巨額的虧損，在經濟復甦，政府不得不通過收緊銀根來抑制經濟過熱的時候，我不知道政府又如何能夠做到。

在這筆接近200億美元的虧損中，有8.8億美元是支付給聯邦政府的“利息”。

如果房利美的這個150億美元的請求被滿足的話（看來是不得不滿足的），政府注入的資金就是600億美元了。從賬面看，每年政府可以從這筆“投資中”獲得60億美元（10%）的紅利利息，但是，對於一個自己生存都有困難的企業，他又如何能夠拿出錢來支付你的這個利息呢？

先前已經獲得500億美元政府注資的，規模小一些的房地美，雖然也是面臨繼續虧損，但是，至少現在暫時還不需要新的注資。這實際上也不能夠說，這個小一點的傢伙就做得好一些。只能夠說，它因為已經要了很多，還有點能夠再過一陣的“餘糧”。

房利美和房地美的敗落，不僅值得美國政府好好反省一下，也值得中國政府好好思考一番。中國目前有着大量的國營企業，會不會有一天“冒出”好幾個房利美和房地美出來呢？如果是，那麼，結果又會是怎麼樣的呢？

正是由於這種擔心，我才寫了一本《美國大敗局》，估計，如果明年元月初，你有機會去北京圖書展的長江文藝出版社的展廳，你應該是可以看到那本書的。

在那裡面，我很深入地分析了房利美的成功和敗落。同時，還深入地分析了華盛頓互惠銀行、雷曼和美國國際集團的成功與敗落的歷史和故事。

如果有機會能夠讓那些為數眾多的博士官員們，還有那些大頭大腦的EMBA的哥們、姐們讀到這本書，或許還能夠在未來為中國省下不少錢呢。我寫的很故事性，讀出點味道應該是很容易的事情。

這許許多多的金融巨頭，公司文化底蘊深厚，人才濟濟，也那麼容易在“一夜之間”敗落。這個殘酷的現實，讓我難以理解，在這個世界上，又到底有什麼是不可以發生的呢？

看看這些公司所做的窩囊事，如果你人生出現挫折，我看也沒有必要太自責。這樣的巨人都不過如此，更何況你我這種“平常人家”的“小人物”。

我一直認為，中國人在今後的經濟博弈中，會在金融這一塊吃很多大虧。最後的損失甚至會超過在鴉片戰爭中的。國家會不會因為一次次在金融對壘上的失敗，而就此再次敗落，也是我擔心的問題。

但願，中國，您能夠一路走好，伴隨着我的祝願。

附錄一：房地美暫時情況“良好”，雖然第三季度繼續虧損63億美元。

WASHINGTON (AP，November 6, 2009) - Freddie Mac's losses narrowed to $6.3 billion in the third quarter, but the government-controlled mortgage finance company didn't need a federal cash infusion.

The McLean, Va.-based company has received about $51 billion since it was seized by federal regulators in September 2008, but said it didn't need any more money for the second-straight quarter.

"We continued to see some positive housing market developments, including higher volumes of home sales and modest increases in house prices in certain areas of the country," the company's new chief executive, Charles Haldeman, said in a statement Friday.

However, he cautioned, high unemployment and rising foreclosures will continue to "impede a full recovery," and the company may need more money from the Treasury Department to stay afloat. The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate hit 10.2 percent, the highest since early 1983.

Freddie Mac's quarterly loss works out to $1.94 per share and includes $1.3 billion in dividends paid to the Treasury Department. It compares with a loss of $25.3 billion, or $19.44 per share, in the year-ago period.

The results were driven by $7.6 billion in credit losses as the company continued to build its reserves for bad mortgages. About 3.3 percent of Freddie Mac's borrowers are at least three payments behind on their mortgages, more than double the rate last year.

The problems at Freddie Mac and its sibling Fannie Mae have proven far worse than most experts had foreseen. On Thursday, Fannie Mae asked the government for another $15 billion, bringing the tab for rescuing both companies to about $111 billion.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That's about half of all mortgages.

The two companies lowered their standards for borrowers during the real estate boom and are reeling from the consequences. High-risk loans, now defaulting at a record pace, have come back to haunt the companies. Worse still, the recession is causing formerly reliable homeowners with good credit to default.

附錄二：房利美還是需要繼續輸血

WASHINGTON (AP，November 5, 2009) - Fannie Mae is asking for an additional $15 billion in government aid after posting another big loss in the third quarter as the taxpayer bill from the housing market bust keeps rising.

The government-controlled company continued to see a dramatic surge of borrowers fall behind as the unemployment rate climbs. At the end of last month, about 4.7 percent of Fannie Mae's borrowers had missed at least three payments.

That's nearly triple last year's level. And the problem is worse in Florida and Nevada, where more than 11 percent of Fannie's loans are in serious trouble.

Seized by federal regulators 14 months ago, the problems at Fannie Mae and sibling company Freddie Mac have proven far worse than most experts had foreseen. Fannie Mae's request Thursday will bring the tab for rescuing both companies to about $111 billion. The government has promised up to $400 billion in assistance.

"There is significant uncertainty regarding the future of our business, including whether we will continue to exist, and we expect this uncertainty to continue," Fannie Mae said.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That's about half of all mortgages.

The two companies lowered their standards for borrowers during the real estate boom and are reeling from the consequences. High-risk loans, now defaulting at a record pace, have come back to haunt the companies. Worse still, the recession is causing formerly reliable homeowners with good credit to default.

Fannie Mae posted a quarterly loss of $19.76 billion, or $3.47 per share. The loss includes $883 million in dividends paid to the Treasury Department and compares with a loss of $29.41 billion, or $13 per share, in the year-ago period.

The results were driven by $22 billion in credit losses as the company continued to build its reserves for sour mortgages.

Thursday's request for financial aid — Fannie Mae's fourth — brings the company's total to about $60 billion.

To help reduce the number of homeowners evicted by foreclosure, Fannie Mae announced Thursday it would give some borrowers on the verge of foreclosure the option of renting their homes for a year.

The new "Deed for Lease" program will allow homeowners to transfer title to Fannie Mae and sign a one-year lease, with potential month-to-month extensions after that. It also helps save money because the lender does not need to complete the often lengthy and time-consuming foreclosure process.

The program helps "eliminate some of the uncertainty of foreclosure, keeps families and tenants in their homes during a transitional period, and helps to stabilize neighborhoods and communities," Jay Ryan, a Fannie Mae vice president, said in a statement.

Critics, however, say the company is simply gambling that the properties will eventually sell for a higher price.

"Taxpayers are now going to own all these houses that (Fannie Mae) should have unloaded," said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn. "It's going to cost a fortune."