我对升不升没有意见，党中央怎么决定，我都听党的话。但我回家在炕头上想了想，又打开钱柜子看了看，我确实觉得，人民币是估计过高了。按道理中国应该对人民币贬值。

当然市场开放了，人民币可能会升，因为中国在增长。增长快的国家，货币就高。但那是反应了一个供需关系，不反应货币的实际价值。有人说一个苹果在中国值一块，在美国值三块，所以人民币低了。这种人幸亏不是咱村的，如果是，我非把他骂死不可。

中国人均本来收入就低，是美国的１／６。你让中国人吃三块钱的苹果，不是让中国人民饿死嘛？这种算法，就是把实际购买力当成货币价。世界上所有落后的国家，购买力都比名义ＧＤＰ高，你难道认为这些国家都高估了货币吗？非洲的一块地值一块钱，美国值一百万，是不是非洲的货币应该升值一百万倍呢？况且就算用购买力，综合来算人民币也没有低估。

记得我爷爷当年很有经济头脑。一是不存纸币，专存银元，二是特地盖了很大的粮仓，存了很多粮食。可惜解放的时候，粮食都被抢光了，银元也不知道去哪里了。我爷爷早就知道纸币是个骗人的东东。因为那就是一张纸，当权人想印多少就印多少。现在的银行系统，电子计算，对于中央银行来说，钱就是个数字，怎么改都行。所以要对比货币价值，可靠的办法，应该是看两国的中央银行变出多少钱来。

美国央行很厉害，一下子变出几千亿美元，又购买房贷，又让银行流通。按理说美元应该大幅贬值才对。但世界各国央行都不是傻子，你贬我也贬，大家都大量增加货币供应，到最后互相对价都不怎么变，但黄金白银却涨了。

中国人民银行，也没有闲着，自从金融危机以来，变出来的人民币，比美元还多。所以说，人民币对美元比价，应该比危机前低才对。按照供应量，人民币贬值才是对的。下面是我从洋人那里抄来的传单，应该是很有说服力的：

Even though China’s economy is one third the size of the US’s economy, its money supply is greater than the US’s. Take a look at these figures. I have converted everything into $ equivalents, and the %age change represents a 1 yr change in these measures:

Given the amount of money which China has put into circulation, to support an economy 1/3 of our size, it should be no surprise that property values are rising in China, with the most recent readings for December showing a 7% increase in just one month.

The reality is that the proliferation in the US’s money supply and the huge build-up of foreign exchange reserves in China has been fueling economic growth which has been averaging around 10% in China. Unlike the US, in China, a change in the money supply has positive multiplier effect on the growth of the economy. Accordingly, attempts to increase bank’s reserve ratios to total lending, and the interest rates charged on money, should have a corresponding impact on loan growth. And so it is with China, that investors are concerned that attempts to pull in the reigns of the economy will remove this engine of growth.