离2012结束还有短短的6天。从最新的进展看，美国几乎没有悬念的会坠下所谓的“财政悬崖”（Fisical　Cliff），因为美国会和总统之间能在年底前达成协议的可能性微乎其微。

从“财政悬崖”这个概念被提起到现在已经一年多了，真正被华尔街当会事也有几个月了。虽然近几个月华尔街几乎是不停的在喊“财政悬崖”对经济和股市的危害有多严重，但市场似乎并不相信会真的发生。从今天的股市看，即便标普掉了5点多，仍在1421点，距今年的最高点1476点仅一步之遥。

为什么市场会不相信美国真的会坠崖呢？恐怕还要从上个月的大选说起。

虽然在大选前，“财政悬崖”就喊得震天响，但没有人会相信解决方案会在大选前有任何结论。况且华尔街把罗姆尼当自己的同志，内心里希望，甚至相信老罗能赢过奥巴马，这可以从本次大选华尔街给老罗捐了多少竞选经费可见一斑。从选前的几个月看，共和党在选后将在参，众两院都有斩获，增加席位，甚至囊括参众两院的多数席位，如果罗姆尼再能当选，那么选后解决“财政悬崖”的方案将会是一个对华尔街，对富人更有利的方案，因为如果国会中的民主党如果不能在年前向共和党更多妥协的话，等明年新任国会开始，民主党的力量将更加薄弱，再加上总统又是罗姆尼，结果会离民主党想要的离得更远。

谁想人算不如天算，大选结果不但让罗姆尼傻眼，共和党也呆了，不但没能在参，众两院增加席位，反倒席位减少了。不但如此，选举的结果似乎印证了选民对国会中两党，特别是共和党为一党之利而不作为大有意见。而对这点的认知，就为后面“财政悬崖”谈判的一波三折做好了铺垫。

不出所料，大选刚刚降下帷幕，解决“财政悬崖”成了重中之重，迫在眉睫要解决的头等大事，因为如果在2012的最后一捋夕阳消失在地平线以下开始还没有解决的方案，那么小布什对富人的减税和经济危机以来所施行的对所有人的减税都将过期，美国全民的税负都将大幅增加，这对一个个人消费占GDP70%以上的国家的经济的打击将堪比核弹，人们将不得不为交得上所得税而勒紧裤带，减衣缩食。

然而这仅是“财政悬崖” 的一部分，另外的破坏力来自美国会自埋的定时炸弹，即2011年联邦债顶之争时通过的法案，如在2012年底不能达成一个减少赤字的方案，将在2013年1月1日起自动启动减少6千亿联邦财政预算，其中很大部分是对军费的减少。从推动美国经济的动力来讲，一是消费者消费，政府的花销，包括巨额的联邦政府的预算花销也不可小看。于是一旦消费者消费和联邦政府的预算花销从同一天开始突然减少，其对美国经济的打击便可想而知了。

大选的结果，共和党被打懵了，对如果打解决“财政悬崖”乱了方寸，于是第一步即以退为进，以众院发言人出面摆出姿态，要一改前面4年和奥巴马全面不合作的态度，愿意接受小奥的引领，大家通力合作，在圣诞节前拆掉“财政悬崖”这颗炸弹。于是华尔街普遍的解读是双方虽然免不了会做做戏，互相你来我往几个回合的讨价还价，但会象去年的债顶之争大戏般在最后一分钟达成协议，有惊无险，因为两党都没有胆量因固执己见而让美国掉下财政悬崖。于是市场干脆跳过有惊那段，直接一路高歌。

事情一开始的发展，的确有如华尔街预测的，双方先拿出自己的最初价，奥巴马要价给年收入个人20万，家庭收入25万以下的98%美国家庭继续减税，而代表众院共和党出面谈判的议长博纳也喊出己方的价码，继续给所有人（100%）的布什减税，但在免税条款上做文章，以增加税收收入。后双方各退一步，奥巴马愿意接受40万年收入以上的人加税，而博纳也首次打破坚决不加税的共和党传统立场，接受给年收百万的人加税。于是很多人相信，双方差距并不大，最后再各退一步，很可能和解在给年收入50万以上家庭加税，于是大家皆大欢喜，高高兴兴过圣诞，欢欢喜喜过新年。

然而，上周四，形势突然急转直下，博纳的“B计划”在众院流产，也使美国坠下财政悬崖成为定局。为什么这么说？

解决“财政悬崖”的方案中，最主要的关乎成败的一条是对富人的增税。按奥巴马几年来一直的主张，所谓的富人是年收入25万以上的家庭（个人收入20万）。而增税，对共和党，特别是立场更强硬的茶党来讲，那是绝对不能接受的。所以，当博纳提出仅为年入100万的人增税方案时，股市变得极为兴奋，因为这意味着共和党打死不增税的立场有了松动，接下来的就只是找到一个平衡点，即那个定义富人的收入点便大功告成了。而博纳为了加强共和党谈判的筹码，抛出来了一个所谓“Plan B”，即便不能就一揽子计划达成协议，咱先达成个给99。92%的人减税的协议，其它的咱们慢慢来。如果民主党否定了“Plan B”，则共和党将不会背负造成“财政悬崖”的责任。

然而，出乎博纳的意料，共和党内的坚决不增税势力不肯让步，致使“Plan B”腰折。同时，更重要的是，由此揭示出，共和党内并未因大选失败而要放弃“打死不增税”的立场达成共识。如果共和党众议员有足够多的人数不接受任何的增税方案，而且这种状况持续一天，那么美国跌入“财政悬崖”的可能就存在一天。现在距年底只剩下不到6天，有多大的可能那些不接受任何的增税方案的众议员的人数，可以在这不到6天里减少到足以让一个包括赠税条款的方案能够被接受呢？关键的问题就是，在什么情况下才能让那些将“永不增税”当成誓言的共和党议员们放弃誓言？

对很多人来讲，答案是：永远不！

对剩下的，或许是：在合适的条件下。

那么在什么条件下才能使足够多的共和党议员们放弃“永不增税”的立场呢？

永远自我感觉良好的华尔街的设想，要想让那些共和党议员们放弃“永不增税”的立场，那么股市就必须有灾难性的大崩溃。直至今日，股市仍表现平稳，股价接近今年的高位，那么期望年内股市给政治家造成足够压力的希望基本不存在了。

其它可能的压力是什么呢？经济重新滑入衰退。

但经济重新滑入衰退的假设条件是如果美国真的坠下“财政悬崖”。就目前情况来看，仅仅经济重新滑入衰退的可能性并未能对政治家们造成多大的压力。要真正产生压力，恐怕要等噩耗成真的时候。这也就决定了，美国坠下“财政悬崖”几无悬念。

对于关心股市的人来讲，在美国坠下“财政悬崖”几无悬念的判断下，股市会有什么样的表现呢？

从华尔街的判断来讲，有足够的人早已看到坠下“财政悬崖”是“必须的”（东北话）。关键是，解决方案会在坠下多久后达成。很多人的预判是差不多一个月，这里面就包括股神巴菲特。

对金融界来讲，危险和不确定性几乎是同义词。华尔街的普遍认知是，不确定性有两种，即可知的不确定性（KNOWN　UNKNOWN）和不可知的不确定性（UNKNOWN　UNKNOWN）。可知的不确定性并不会对股市造成股灾。能造成股灾的必然是不可知的不确定性。

如果相信“财政悬崖”的解决方案会在坠下的一个月内达成，于是在新年的头一个月内，市场怕都会笼罩在以“可知的不确定性”为主的心境下，也因此，股市怕也不会灾难性的崩盘。但反过来，如果华尔街是对的，那么股市如果不崩盘，就不会产生足够的压力让民主，共和两党达成协议，这几乎是一个悖论。于是那种寄希望于新年后的一个月内达成协议怕也要落空，真正的解决方案将会是在市场上多数人都对达成协议放弃了希望以后。


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 Seven Ways the 'Fiscal Cliff' Crisis Could End

Published: Friday, 21 Dec 2012 | 2:19 PM ET    Twitter  


 Jewel Samad | AFP | Getty Images
House Speaker John Boehner, President Obama and Sen. Harry Reid.So what now? The House rejection of a bill to raise taxes on just 0.18 percent of Americans -- those making more than $1 million a year -- has raised questions about the Republican-led chamber's ability to approve any plan to avert the looming "fiscal cliff."

Unless President Barack Obama and Congress can forge a deal during the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the largest economy in the world could be thrust back into a recession because of the steep tax increases and spending cuts that are due to begin in January.

The threat of across-the-board government spending cuts and tax increases -- about $600 billion worth -- was intended to shock Democrats and House Republicans into moving past their many differences to approve a plan that would bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.

For weeks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, have struggled to find a compromise.

After a glimmer of hope that a deal was close, Boehner -- apparently under pressure from anti-tax House Republicans aligned with the conservative Tea Party -- pressed the "pause" button on negotiations. He then tried to push a backup plan through the House late Thursday, only to see his fellow Republicans kill it.

While the House is controlled by the Republicans, the Senate is controlled by Obama's fellow Democrats.

Where do Obama and Congress go from here? Here are some possible scenarios.

Play VideoWhat Happens Next
The very latest on fiscal cliff talks, with CNBC's John Harwood, Steve Liesman & Larry Kudlow.1. Obama and Boehner return to secret negotiations.

Before Boehner started touting his failed "Plan B" to boost taxes on those who make more than $1 million, he and Obama were moving closer together on a plan to raise taxes on certain high-income Americans and cut spending. They could pick up where they left off and quickly cut a deal to bridge the gap. (Read More: Here's How Close Boehner and Obama Are.)

But a compromise with possibly $1 trillion in new taxes and $1 trillion in new, long-term spending cuts could be a tough sell for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Boehner would have to sell enough Republicans on the idea of tax increases. Obama, meanwhile, would have to get Democrats in Congress to back cuts to some social safety net programs such as Social Security pensions and Medicare and Medicaid health insurance for the elderly and poor. House Republicans appear to be the tougher sell.

2. A huge drop in the stock market sends a loud message to Washington politicians to stop arguing and cut a quick but meaningful deal.

That is what happened in late September 2008, after Congress rejected a massive financial bailout package despite warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of an economic collapse if the bill failed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 700 points and Congress quickly reversed course, approving the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program just days later.

The "fiscal cliff" may not be as dramatic a situation, but the tax increases and cuts in federal spending could deal a stiff blow to the economy.

3. No deal happens in the dwindling days of 2012 and the government jumps off the fiscal cliff -- at least temporarily.

On Jan. 1, income taxes would go up on just about everyone. During the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.

Why could they reach a deal in January, if they fail in December?

The reason would be that once taxes go up, it would be easier to allow a few of those increases to remain in place -- mostly on the wealthy -- and repeal those that would hit middle- and lower-income taxpayers.

Such a scenario would mean that no member of Congress technically would have to vote for a tax increase on anyone -- taxes would have risen automatically, and the only votes would be to decrease tax rates for most Americans back to their 2012 levels.

4. No deal occurs for another six weeks or so.

If Congress does not raise the nation's debt limit, by mid-February, the Treasury Department likely would exhaust its ability to borrow. That would put the nation at risk of defaulting on its debt.

Republicans have withheld their approval of the debt-limit increase as leverage to try to get the kind of "fiscal cliff" solution they want: Fewer increases in spending and taxes, and more cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

This is the strategy they employed in mid-2011 during the last fight over the debt limit, which is about $16.4 trillion.

Republicans wrung spending cuts out of Democrats in return for new borrowing authority, but paid a political price. Global financial markets were rocked by the long uncertainty brought on by the standoff in Congress, one ratings agency downgraded U.S. credit standing and Republicans saw their public approval ratings sink.

5. Boehner decides on a gutsy move: Call a House vote on a bill that would raise tax rates for families with net annual incomes above $250,000, exactly what Obama has sought.

The plan could pass the House with strong Democratic support and some Republican votes. As soon as it passed, the House likely would leave town for the rest of the year without addressing other Obama priorities, such as increasing the government's debt limit.

6. A partial deal is struck at any point.

Congress could pass a plan that would put off most of the income tax increases that are due in January, or extend some other expiring tax breaks -- namely one to prevent middle-class taxpayers from being subject to higher tax rates aimed at the wealthy under the alternative minimum tax.

7. Stock markets do not tank and Washington politicians conclude that the "fiscal cliff" is not such a bad thing.

Under this scenario, Congress and the White House could continue sniping at each other throughout 2013 and 2014 as they try to revamp tax policy and impose long-term spending cuts.