房利美生存的代价到底有多高

房利美继续病恹恹，已经混到需要卖Tax Credits的份上。即使如此，还是需要政府继续输血。在公布自己的第三季的继续亏损之后，已经明确开口，需要纳税人再慷慨地注入150亿美元。这已经是房利美第四度向我们要钱了，是可忍孰不可忍，这个窟窿到底有多大、多深，我们纳税人到底需要为它最后承担多大的代价才行？

还是没有人知道这个问题的答案。

房利美第三季亏损，继续高达197.6亿美元，虽然比去年同期的294.1亿美元低不少，但是，在金融危机“已经过去”的今天，还不得不面临如此巨额的亏损，在经济复苏，政府不得不通过收紧银根来抑制经济过热的时候，我不知道政府又如何能够做到。

在这笔接近200亿美元的亏损中，有8.8亿美元是支付给联邦政府的“利息”。

如果房利美的这个150亿美元的请求被满足的话（看来是不得不满足的），政府注入的资金就是600亿美元了。从账面看，每年政府可以从这笔“投资中”获得60亿美元（10%）的红利利息，但是，对于一个自己生存都有困难的企业，他又如何能够拿出钱来支付你的这个利息呢？

先前已经获得500亿美元政府注资的，规模小一些的房地美，虽然也是面临继续亏损，但是，至少现在暂时还不需要新的注资。这实际上也不能够说，这个小一点的家伙就做得好一些。只能够说，它因为已经要了很多，还有点能够再过一阵的“余粮”。

房利美和房地美的败落，不仅值得美国政府好好反省一下，也值得中国政府好好思考一番。中国目前有着大量的国营企业，会不会有一天“冒出”好几个房利美和房地美出来呢？如果是，那么，结果又会是怎么样的呢？

正是由于这种担心，我才写了一本《美国大败局》，估计，如果明年元月初，你有机会去北京图书展的长江文艺出版社的展厅，你应该是可以看到那本书的。

在那里面，我很深入地分析了房利美的成功和败落。同时，还深入地分析了华盛顿互惠银行、雷曼和美国国际集团的成功与败落的历史和故事。

如果有机会能够让那些为数众多的博士官员们，还有那些大头大脑的EMBA的哥们、姐们读到这本书，或许还能够在未来为中国省下不少钱呢。我写的很故事性，读出点味道应该是很容易的事情。

这许许多多的金融巨头，公司文化底蕴深厚，人才济济，也那么容易在“一夜之间”败落。这个残酷的现实，让我难以理解，在这个世界上，又到底有什么是不可以发生的呢？

看看这些公司所做的窝囊事，如果你人生出现挫折，我看也没有必要太自责。这样的巨人都不过如此，更何况你我这种“平常人家”的“小人物”。

我一直认为，中国人在今后的经济博弈中，会在金融这一块吃很多大亏。最后的损失甚至会超过在鸦片战争中的。国家会不会因为一次次在金融对垒上的失败，而就此再次败落，也是我担心的问题。

但愿，中国，您能够一路走好，伴随着我的祝愿。

附录一：房地美暂时情况“良好”，虽然第三季度继续亏损63亿美元。

WASHINGTON (AP，November 6, 2009) - Freddie Mac's losses narrowed to $6.3 billion in the third quarter, but the government-controlled mortgage finance company didn't need a federal cash infusion.

The McLean, Va.-based company has received about $51 billion since it was seized by federal regulators in September 2008, but said it didn't need any more money for the second-straight quarter.

"We continued to see some positive housing market developments, including higher volumes of home sales and modest increases in house prices in certain areas of the country," the company's new chief executive, Charles Haldeman, said in a statement Friday.

However, he cautioned, high unemployment and rising foreclosures will continue to "impede a full recovery," and the company may need more money from the Treasury Department to stay afloat. The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate hit 10.2 percent, the highest since early 1983.

Freddie Mac's quarterly loss works out to $1.94 per share and includes $1.3 billion in dividends paid to the Treasury Department. It compares with a loss of $25.3 billion, or $19.44 per share, in the year-ago period.

The results were driven by $7.6 billion in credit losses as the company continued to build its reserves for bad mortgages. About 3.3 percent of Freddie Mac's borrowers are at least three payments behind on their mortgages, more than double the rate last year.

The problems at Freddie Mac and its sibling Fannie Mae have proven far worse than most experts had foreseen. On Thursday, Fannie Mae asked the government for another $15 billion, bringing the tab for rescuing both companies to about $111 billion.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That's about half of all mortgages.

The two companies lowered their standards for borrowers during the real estate boom and are reeling from the consequences. High-risk loans, now defaulting at a record pace, have come back to haunt the companies. Worse still, the recession is causing formerly reliable homeowners with good credit to default.

附录二：房利美还是需要继续输血

WASHINGTON (AP，November 5, 2009) - Fannie Mae is asking for an additional $15 billion in government aid after posting another big loss in the third quarter as the taxpayer bill from the housing market bust keeps rising.

The government-controlled company continued to see a dramatic surge of borrowers fall behind as the unemployment rate climbs. At the end of last month, about 4.7 percent of Fannie Mae's borrowers had missed at least three payments.

That's nearly triple last year's level. And the problem is worse in Florida and Nevada, where more than 11 percent of Fannie's loans are in serious trouble.

Seized by federal regulators 14 months ago, the problems at Fannie Mae and sibling company Freddie Mac have proven far worse than most experts had foreseen. Fannie Mae's request Thursday will bring the tab for rescuing both companies to about $111 billion. The government has promised up to $400 billion in assistance.

"There is significant uncertainty regarding the future of our business, including whether we will continue to exist, and we expect this uncertainty to continue," Fannie Mae said.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That's about half of all mortgages.

The two companies lowered their standards for borrowers during the real estate boom and are reeling from the consequences. High-risk loans, now defaulting at a record pace, have come back to haunt the companies. Worse still, the recession is causing formerly reliable homeowners with good credit to default.

Fannie Mae posted a quarterly loss of $19.76 billion, or $3.47 per share. The loss includes $883 million in dividends paid to the Treasury Department and compares with a loss of $29.41 billion, or $13 per share, in the year-ago period.

The results were driven by $22 billion in credit losses as the company continued to build its reserves for sour mortgages.

Thursday's request for financial aid — Fannie Mae's fourth — brings the company's total to about $60 billion.

To help reduce the number of homeowners evicted by foreclosure, Fannie Mae announced Thursday it would give some borrowers on the verge of foreclosure the option of renting their homes for a year.

The new "Deed for Lease" program will allow homeowners to transfer title to Fannie Mae and sign a one-year lease, with potential month-to-month extensions after that. It also helps save money because the lender does not need to complete the often lengthy and time-consuming foreclosure process.

The program helps "eliminate some of the uncertainty of foreclosure, keeps families and tenants in their homes during a transitional period, and helps to stabilize neighborhoods and communities," Jay Ryan, a Fannie Mae vice president, said in a statement.

Critics, however, say the company is simply gambling that the properties will eventually sell for a higher price.

"Taxpayers are now going to own all these houses that (Fannie Mae) should have unloaded," said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn. "It's going to cost a fortune."