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汪翔:现在是买股票的最好时候吗?
送交者: 汪翔 2010年03月15日11:37:47 于 [股市财经] 发送悄悄话

 

现在是买股票的最好时候吗?

 

 

股市在去年大幅上涨之后,还是不是一个进入和继续持有的好时候?

如果你认为美国经济肯定会复苏的话,那厶,现在还应该是一个不错的买入时机,特别是在有不少的人在观望的时候。如果大家都已经参与了,并且都在赚钱,都能够很“准确”地预知哪只股票会上升,而且他(她)的预测还真的是对的,那厶,就是你应该慢慢撤出股市的时候了。因为,在那个时候,人们能够做的事情就是动嘴,而他们手里和口袋里已经没有什厶钱可以投入股市了。没有继续增加的对股票的需求,自然就是需求的疲软,而疲软的需求带来的就是价格的下跌。经济学100就是这厶说的,事实上也是对的。

下面这篇文章告诉你,从技术层面和历史经验等多方面看,目前的股市还是后劲不错,是继续买入的时候。况且,现在还有不少的人在那里犹豫不决,这就是牛市的信号,至少是牛市发生可能性比较大的信号。

再者,谷歌目前似乎是有问题,而我反倒觉得正是建仓的时候。逢低吸纳,注意分寸,未来几年谷歌可能会给你带来不错的业绩。毕竟,中国市场对它而言只是小菜一碟。再者,我相信,谷歌自己也是理智的,它应该知道自己到底在做什厶。

对于百度,不久前在股价刚刚突破500点时我还在想,看来是有机会冲破600点关口了。原因就在于“势”,“势不可挡”。即使现在你觉得已经很贵了,如果你逆势而行,可能会在短期内吃不小的亏。不过,你得注意,如果股价被预支太厉害,接下来需要调整和等待的时间也会非常长。这和爬山是一个道理∶你爬得太快,中途需要歇息的时间也会越长。

关于这些哲理性的内容,我在自己的《价值投资∶股市投资制 之道》一书(崇文书局,2009年版)中谈了很多。对于普通的长期投资者,这些哲理性的内容反倒比那些复杂的技术分析还有用,还容易使用。

 

附录∶Now is a good time to buy stocks

3/12/10 | Marketwatch

 

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Historically, on average there have been two particularly auspicious times to buy stock each year. Right now is one of those times.

We are very bullish on shares, and for the following reasons:

The broader market, best measured by the cumulative NYSE advance-decline line and the number of 52-week highs, is leading the averages higher. A market seldom gets into serious trouble when the average stock is outperforming the blue-chip issues that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (
INDU) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX). In fact, a peak in the advance-decline line and number of 52-week highs, proxies for the average stock, normally precedes a bull market top in the Dow industrials by at least four to six months, making it one of the better long-term leading indicators. That this has not yet transpired increases the probability that a bull market top is some months down the road.

Sector leadership is constructive. Important broad sectors which are highly sensitive to the economic cycle, such as the retailers and consumer discretionary stocks, are showing strong outperformance. In light of this, we do not believe that the economy will experience a double-dip in the remainder of 2010.

A typical bull market does not end after just one year, but averages between two and three years, depending upon the measurement technique used. It would be unlikely for the bull market to end now after just a one-year advance, especially after the severe and lengthy onslaught inflicted by the 2007-2009 bear, whose wrath has left many groups undervalued by historic measures.

Many stocks are forming sideways price consolidation areas, known as bases. Subsequent to an intermediate-term correction or bear market, this has been our most reliable indicator of an impending intermediate-term advance for the past 20 years. In fact, during this period, we have only encountered one other instance in which the market fell apart and moved to new lows despite the presence of many stocks building bases. Especially bullish is the fact that more stocks are forming bases at present than at any time since 1999, or before.

For the intermediate-term participant, who holds a winning position from a few weeks to a few months, recent breakouts in Acacia Research (
ACTG), Acme Packet (APKT), Agilent (A), Agilysys (AGYS), Albemarle (ALB), Altera (ALTR), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Aruba Networks (ARUN), Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWW), Baidu (BIDU), Black & Decker (BDK), Blue Coat Systems (BSCI), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Cognizant Tech Solutions (CTSH), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Cimarex (XEC), Dollar Thrifty (DTG), Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS), Dress Barn (DBRN), Eaton (ETN), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), ev3 (EVVV), Express Scripts (ESRX), F5 Networks (FFIV), Faro Technologies (FARO), Federal-Mogul (FDML), Fossil (FOSL), Gentex (GNTX), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE), Imax (IMAX), Incyte (INCY), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), JDA Software (JDAS), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Liberty Global (LBTYA), Mellanox Technologies (MLNX), Mylan (MYL), Neogen (NEOG), Netgear (NTGR), Nordson (NDSN), Plexus (PLXS), Riverbed Technology (RVBD), Rovi (ROVI), Sapient (SAPE), Shutterfly (SFLY), Skechers (SKX), Skyworks (SWKS), Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP), Sonosite (SONO), Trimble Navigation (TRMB), Viropharma (VPHM), VistaPrint (VPRT), Walter Energy (WLT), WebMD (WBMD), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), and Whole Foods Market (WFMI), to name just 57, are all the evidence that is needed to know that the five-week rally off the Feb. 5 wash-and-rinse day low has serious credentials. Breakouts in many of the above Nasdaq names have been accompanied by volume best described as not "middling" or "on the fence," but "explosive."

Still building bases are Agrium (
AGU), Bucyrus International (BUCY), Catalyst Health Solutions (CHSI), Cavium Networks (CAVM), Ceragon Networks (CRNT), Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Ctrip.com (CTRP), Deere & Co. (DE), DirecTV Group (DTV), Dover (DOV), G-III Apparel Group (GIII), GSI Commerce (GSIC), Methanex (MEOH), NII Holdings (NIHD), SuccessFactors (SFSF), Veeco Instruments (VECO), Virgin Media (VMED), and Waste Services (WSII), to name just 18.

In summation, we are very bullish. We do not use adjectives lightly, and cannot recall the last time the term "very bullish" was used. Breadth, leadership, and Nasdaq volume are all positive.

In particular, we like the fact that hundreds of stocks are building, and breaking out of, sideways areas of consolidation, known as bases, more than at any time since 1999, and possibly longer. Short-term, the averages have been overbought for eight-straight days, and thus deserving of a pullback.

Kevin Marder is a principal of Marder Investment Advisors Corp., and was a co-founder of MarketWatch. He is a contributor to The Gilmo Report.

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