Wei Liu: Math, Geography, History Together Found Covid-19 Is from the Lab in China 612                                            

                    劉蔚：數學，地理，歷史聯合發現武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室 612

                         By Wei Liu, U. S. citizen, U. S. veteran in Minnesota, August 2021

                       作者：劉蔚，美國公民，美軍退伍軍人2021年8月寫於明尼蘇達州

        Covid-19 has caused catastrophe in America, in the world and people have to know the origin of it. As a human, my way is multi-discipline study, using math, geography and history together and found Covid-19 is from the lab in China.

        武漢肺炎給美國，給世界帶來了巨大的災難，人們必須知道它的來源。作為一個地球人，我的途徑是多學科研究，就是用數學，地理，歷史一起發現武漢肺炎來自中共的實驗室。

        Sars, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, 2002 is from China too. The first case of Sars was in November 2002 and China reported it to WHO in February 2003, taking three months for China to report. China claimed Sars is from the nature or wild animal, particularly Guangdong Province people in China eating civet cat. The loss brought by Sars is comparatively limited, with 27 Americans, 5,000 Chinese, 8,000 people in the world infected, ended in July 2003, lasted for 8 months. And China’s saying that Sars is from nature got by.

        2002年爆發的薩斯，嚴重呼吸道症狀，也來自中國。薩斯最早病例是在2002年11月的中國，而中共是在2003年2月向世界衛生組織報告的，花了三個月的時間報告。中共聲稱薩斯來自自然或者野生動物，是廣東人吃果子狸。薩斯帶來的損害是有限的，27名美國人，約5000名中國人，8000名地球人感染，2003年8月薩斯結束，持續了8個月的時間。中共有關薩斯來自自然的說法就混過去了。

        British scientist discovered the earliest case of Covid-19 in China is October 2019. China just by the request of WHO, reported it to WHO in January 2020, taking another 3 months for China to report. Also, this time China, more accurate, Chinese Communist Party, claimed it is from the nature or wild animal too, particularly a food market selling wild animal for food in Wuhan, China. American scientist in Seattle discovered the Covid-19 type in that food market is not earliest type, meaning food market is not the origin of Covid-19.

        英國科學家發現武漢肺炎的最早病例是2019年10月的中國。而中共是在2020年1月在世界衛生組織的要求下，才對世界衛生組織做了報告。這一次中共又花了三個月時間才報告。中共也再一次地說病毒來自自然或野生動物，來自華南海鮮市場。在西雅圖的美國科學家發現在華南海鮮市場的病毒序列並不是最早的病毒序列，就是說華南海鮮市場不是武漢肺炎的發源地。

        The above is the background. We know both Sars 2002 and Covid-19 are from China. The virus is either from the nature or from the lab. Human touched or raised animal is not nature. Only wild animal is nature. Though we cannot get exact number of wild animals by country, we know the number of wild animals is based on the land area or land mass. So we view the number of wild animal by land mass. China’s land area is 9.6 million square kilometers and the land area of the world is 149 million square kilometers. This is geography. The proportion of land China has in the world = 9.6 million/149 million = 1/16. China’s average forest and grassland per square mile is below the average level of the world, meaning its wild animal level is below the average level of the world, meaning China has at most 1/16 of the wild animals in the world. China has lots of flies, mosquitoes, but those are invertebrate. Invertebrate does not have back bone, blood circulation system, entirely different from vertebrate like human. Virus from invertebrate cannot infect human at all. So we do not worry about invertebrate. Wild animal in this article means vertebrate, not invertebrate.

        以上就是背景情況。我們知道2002年的薩斯和2019年爆發的武漢肺炎都來自中國。病毒要麼來自自然，要麼來自實驗室，沒有第三種可能性。人接觸或養殖的動物不是自然，只有野生動物才是自然。儘管我們不知道各個國家野生動物的數量，我們知道野生動物數量是基於土地面積。中國土地面積是960萬平方公里，地球土地/陸地面積是1.49億平方公里。這是地理。那中國土地面積占地球土地面積 = 9.6百萬/149百萬 = 1/16. 中國的森林，草原覆蓋率低於世界的平均水平。中國的野生動物數量最多達到世界的1/16. 中國是有很多蒼蠅，蚊子，但那些是無脊椎動物。無脊椎動物沒有脊椎，沒有血液循環系統，與人這樣的脊椎生命身體完全不同。無脊椎動物的病毒完全不會感染人。所以無脊椎動物就不考慮了。本文的野生動物指脊椎動物，不指無脊椎動物。

        If virus is from nature or wild animal, then it can happen in the wild animal in any country in the world, Asia, Europe, Africa, Australia, North America, South America, not just China. One example in math. Mary has 3 children in a school that has 15 students total. One of 15 students won a prize. What is the probability that the one winning prize is from Mary’s children? Solution: Single Probability = Event space/Sample space = 3/15 = 1/5. So the probability that the one winning prize is from Mary’s children is 1/5.

         如果病毒來自自然或者野生動物，那可能發生在地球上任何國家，亞洲，歐洲，非洲，澳洲，北美洲，南美洲，都有可能，不單是中國。一個數學例題。瑪麗有三個孩子在一個學校，該校共15名學生，其中一名學生獲了獎。問獲獎學生來自瑪麗的孩子的可能性是多少？解：單一可能性 = 事件空間/樣本空間 = 3/15 = 1/5. 瑪麗孩子獲獎的可能性是1/5.

         Now China has one portion of land. The world has 16 equal size of land. What is the probability that Sars 2002 happen in the wild animal in the land of China? Solution: Single Probability = Event space/Sample space = 1/16. The probability that Sars happen in the wild animal in the land of China is 1/16.

        現在中國有一份土地，地球有16份面積相同的土地。2002年的薩斯發生在中國的野生動物的可能性是多少？解：單一可能性 = 事件空間/樣本空間 = 1/16. 薩斯發生在中國土地上野生動物的可能性是1/16.

        Then China has one portion of land. The world has 16 equal size of land. What is the probability that Covid-19 happen in the wild animal in the land of China? Solution: Single Probability = Event space/Sample space = 1/16. The probability that Covid-19 happen in the wild animal in the land of China is 1/16.

        然後中國有一份土地，地球有16份面積相同的土地。2019年的武漢肺炎發生在中國的野生動物的可能性是多少？解：單一可能性 = 事件空間/樣本空間 = 1/16. 武漢肺炎發生在中國土地上野生動物的可能性是1/16.

        Next are Sars 2002 and Covid-19 independent or dependent events? If Event A does not change the likelihood of Event B, then these two are independent. In our daily life, after Event A happen, we do not talk about Event B before Event B actually happen. For example, one buying a car and one like fish are independent. After one buying a car, we do not say he/she likes fish unless we truly see that person like fish. If Event A changes the likelihood of Event B, then these two are dependent. For example, one buying a car and one able to travel far are dependent. After one buying a car, we say he/she is able to travel far before he/she actually does so. After Sars 2002 happened, for over ten years people do not talk about Covid-19 is likely or unlikely to happen. So Sars 2002 and Covid-19 are independent events. Joint Probability of two independent events = Probability of Event A x Probability of Event B.

        接下來2002年薩斯和2019年的武漢肺炎是獨立還是相關的事件？如果事件A發生不影響事件B發生的可能性，那這兩者就是獨立的。在我們日常生活中，事件A發生後，在事件B發生前，我們不談論事件B. 比如一個人買車和他是否吃魚是獨立的兩個事件。一個人買車後，我們不會說他喜歡吃魚，除非我們真看到他喜歡吃魚。而如果事件A發生會改變事件B發生的可能性，那這二者就是相關的。比如一個人買車和他能遠行是兩個相關的事件。一個人買車後，我們就可以說他能遠行，即便我們沒有看到他遠行。在2002年薩斯爆發後十幾年期間，人們沒有說武漢肺炎會發生或不會發生。所以2002薩斯和2019武漢肺炎是兩個獨立的事件。在數學裡，兩個獨立事件連續發生的可能性 = 事件A可能性 x 事件B可能性。

         Then what is the joint probability that both Sars 2002 and Covid-19 happen in the wild animal in the land of China as claimed by Chinese Communist Party?

         共產黨說2002薩斯，2019武漢肺炎兩次病毒都來自中國的野生動物，那麼這樣的可能性是多少呢？

        Solution: Joint Probability = Probability of Sars 2002 happen in the wild animal in the land of China x Probability of Covid-19 happen in the wild animal in the land of China = 1/16 x 1/16 = 1/256. The probability for Chinese Communist Party that both viruses is from the nature in China to be true is 1/256.

        解：兩獨立事件的連續可能性 = 2002 薩斯發生在中國土地野生動物的可能性 x 2019

                武漢肺炎發生在中國土地野生動物的可能性

                = 1/16 x 1/16

                =1/256

               中共的說的兩次病毒都來自中國自然的可能性是1/256.

        Probability of both Viruses from nature in China + Probability of Sars 2002 from Nature in China and Covid-19 from lab in China + Probability of Sars 2002 from lab in China and Covid-19 from nature in China + both viruses from the lab in China = 1, Probability of both viruses from the nature or wild animal in China = 1/256.

        兩次病毒都來自中國自然的可能性 + 2002薩斯來自中國自然，2019武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室的可能性 + 2002薩斯來自中共實驗室，2019武漢肺炎來自中國自然的可能性 + 兩次病毒都來自中共實驗室的可能性 = 1. 兩次病毒均來自中國自然或野生動物的可能性 = 1/256.     

        Then at least one virus of Sars 2002 and Covid-19 is from the lab in China = 1 – 1/256 = 255/256 > 99%. What is the demarcation line to believe or conclude? In math, the highest confidence level is 99%, the most commonly used is 95%. Therefore, we conclude either Sars 2002 or Covid-19 or both are from the lab in China. China has violated the Biological Weapons Convention that China accepted in 1984.

        那麼2002薩斯和2019武漢肺炎至少一種來自中共實驗室的可能性 = 1 – 1/256 = 255/256 > 99%. 相信或者下結論的標準是多少？數學裡，相信的最高標準是99%，最常用的是95%。所以我們下結論，2002薩斯或者2019武漢肺炎或者兩者都來自中共實驗室。共產黨違背了它1984年批準的禁止生物武器國際公約。       

        Situation A, Both viruses are from the lab in China, then Covid-19 is from the lab in China. Simple.

        情形A, 兩種病毒都來自中共實驗室，那麼顯然2019武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室。

        Situation B, there is one and only one virus is from the lab in China.

        情形B,有且只有一種病毒來自中共實驗室。

        Scenario 1, Sars 2002 is from the lab in China and Covid-19 is not from the lab in China, Covid-19 still infects people in 2021, meaning Chinese Communist Party from 2002 to 2021 becomes milder.

       情形1，2002薩斯來自中共實驗室，2019武漢肺炎不來自中共實驗室。2021年2019武漢肺炎繼續感染人。就是說從2002到現在2021年中共是更加溫柔了。

        Scenario 2, Sars 2002 is not from the lab in China and Covid-19 is from the lab in China, meaning Chinese Communist Party from 2002 to 2021 become more belligerent or more like fighting.

        情形2，2002薩斯不來自中共實驗室，2019武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室。就是說從2002年到2021年中共是更加兇殘了。       

        What happened today is already history. In domestic affairs of China, around 2002, there is no concentration camp in Xinjiang, China, and Hongkong has its freedom. Since 2014, over 300 concentration camps set up in Xinjiang, China, imprisoning over 1 million Muslims. In 2020, China enacted Hongkong Security Law and Hongkong lost its freedom. In foreign affairs of China, around 2002, there is no big foreign investment. Since 2013, China on average every year invested over 100 billion U. S. dollars to do big projects including energy, transport, in over 100 countries in the world, so-called, Belt and Road, trying to grab big influence in those countries. Around 2002, China said to America, “You give us more time, and we let China have more democracy.” In 2021, China said to America, “Chinese people does not accept American democracy at all.” In military, around 2002, there is not a single military plane of China crossed the median line of Taiwan Strait. Since 2019, military planes of China crossed the median line of Taiwan Strait. With in a single day of April 2021, 25 military planes of China crossed the median line of Taiwan Strait. 25 modern military planes, capable of precise strike, is enough to fight a battle. Clearly, from 2002 to 2021, in domestic affairs, foreign affairs, military of China, Chinese Communist Party becomes all more belligerent, not milder.

        今天發生的事情已經是歷史了。在中共的國內事務方面，2002年左右，新疆沒有集中營，香港有自由。2014年起，新疆建了300座以上的集中營，關押上百萬的穆斯林。 2020年中共實行香港國安法，香港沒有自由了。在中共的國際事務方面，2002年左右中共沒有大筆資金投資外國，2013年起平均每年中共投資1,000億美元到一百多個國家，進行能源，運輸等重大工程，所謂一帶一路，意圖對這些國家產生大的影響力。2002年左右中共對美國說，“你給我們更多時間，我們讓中國有更多民主。”2021年中共對美國說，“中國人民根本不接受美國的民主。”在中共的軍事方面，2002年左右，沒有一架中共軍機越過台灣海峽中線。2019年起中共軍機越過了台灣海峽中線。2021年4月的一天，25架中共軍機越過了台灣海峽中線。25架具備精確打擊能力的戰機足夠打一場戰役了。顯然，從2002年到2021年，中共在國內事務，國際事務，軍事方面都變得更加兇殘，而不是更加溫柔。

        Therefore, in Situation B of one virus from the lab in China, we reject or eliminate Scenario 1 that Sars 2002 is from the lab in China and Covid-19 is not from the lab in China, Chinese Communist Party become milder, and accept Scenario 2 that Sars 2002 is not from the lab in China and Covid-19 is from the lab in China, Chinese Communist Party become more belligerent. Therefore both Situation A both viruses from the lab in China and Situation B one virus from the lab in China leads to Covid-19 is from the lab in China.

        所以在有一種病毒來自中共實驗室的情形B里，我們排除情形1，2002薩斯來自中共實驗室，2019武漢肺炎不來自中共實驗室，中共變得更溫柔，而接受情形2，2002薩斯不來自中共實驗室，2019武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室，中共變得更兇殘。於是情形A兩種病毒均來自中共實驗室，情形B一種病毒來自中共實驗室，都顯示2019武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室。

        Conclusion: Covid-19 is from the lab in China.

        結論：2019武漢肺炎來自中共實驗室。

        The end of this essay.

        本文完