| 我代表放牛班俊男美女擁護韓寒范冰冰之流兼痛斥科班歪瓜裂棗之輩 |
| 送交者: FVCK 2012年02月23日13:03:36 於 [五 味 齋] 發送悄悄話 |
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我代表放牛班俊男美女擁護韓寒范冰冰之流兼痛斥科班歪瓜裂棗之輩。
大學科班是個騙局: 很多人說:大學畢業與否造成收入水平的巨大差異。我問這些人:你在大學究竟學過統計學101沒有?你們這個假象觀察到處流傳,但是卻缺乏統計學的第一個要素: 取樣的對等。 真正對等取樣應該是這樣的:選2000人,盲目的分1000去上大學,1000不去讀大學,然後對比。這個觀察取樣不對等是顯著的:上大學的學生很可能是更有進取心,記憶力更好,甚至可能家庭平均背景更好的一群,一開始對比就不公平。這樣的人上不上大學都會收入更高。 。。。。。。
College is a scam — so let’s make money off it May 27, 2011|James Altucher Many stocks will continue to go up from the multidecade college bubble, even as it eventually bursts. The Washington Post Co. (US:WPO), which owns Stanley Kaplan, gets all of its earnings from the education side of its business, while Blackboard is the firepower underneath online course management. Google (US:GOOG) has all the knowledge in the world at your fingertips and also is trying to get into the online course management game. And Apple’s (US:AAPL) increasing MacBook Air sales are due to colleges buying them for their labs. Then there’d probably be a basket of the cheaper online education schools like Apollo Group (US:APOL), etc.
As a result, for the first time ever, we are graduating a generation of indentured servants rather than the entrepreneurs, innovators, artists and inventors that America is known for (I have no self-interest in this — I’m obviously not shorting colleges, as that’s impossible – I just hate seeing American go down the drain.) Forty-four percent of 2009 graduates are either unemployed or hold jobs that don’t require degrees. So, in other words, these millions of young people are five years behind their peers, and many are holding over $100,000 in debt. What a shame. People tell me, “School teaches kids how to think.” To that I say, “Learn how to use a library.” And while we’re at it, put more computers in the library. The knowledge is out there. We don’t need to owe the banks and the government $800 billion to get knowledge. People tell me, “There’s a huge income gap between people with a college degree and people without a college degree.” To that I say, “Did you take Statistics 101 in college?” That spurious statistic is making the rounds but fails the basic test of an accurate statistic. It has selection bias. It also ignores cause versus correlation. That’s Chapter 1 of the Statistics 101 textbook. A true test would be to take 2,000 people and separate them into two groups of 1,000. Group A is not allowed to go to college. Group B goes to college. Twenty years later, let’s see how they are doing Obviously, this test will never get done, but the basic idea is common sense. Take people who are equally intelligent and ambitious and give them a five-year head start, with no debt. They are going to do very well, I have no doubt. Some people say, “College teaches kids how to socially interact and network.” That’s great. But it doesn’t cost (for example) $300,000 for little kids to make friends. Join Facebook for free. And start networking on LinkedIn. Well, what about teaching kids the classics like Plato. How does art and beauty persist generation after generation? My answer: People with passion will read. I didn’t read a book while in college. But I have read several thousand in the 22 years since. If people want knowledge, they will seek it out with a hunger like you can’t even imagine. You can’t force feed passion or knowledge. What about if you want to be a doctor? Clearly, you need a degree. Maybe. Are you saying you want to heal people, or are you saying you want to be an M.D.? Try working for a few years cleaning people’s bedpans and learn a little about the medical industry. For anything you want to do in life, try it first rather than waste money and time learning something you ultimately never think about again. Tuitions have gone up 10 times faster than inflation in the past 30 years and three times faster than health-care costs in the past 30 years. We need to have an active discussion on this as a society. Meanwhile, the greatest entrepreneurs, artists and inventors in history either didn’t go to college at all or dropped out (or were kicked out). My story: I majored in computer science at a good school. I went to graduate school in computer science. I programmed every day for about six years straight. Then I went to work in the “real world.” In order to program there, they had to send me to remedial programming classes so I could learn to program as well as the rest of them at a real job. For more on why kids shouldn’t go to college, please see my post at JamesAltucher.com. This is all fine, you might say, but what are the alternatives? Please see post on JamesAltucher.com listing eight alternatives to college. And yes, some of those alternatives cost a tiny bit of money — but it’s nowhere near as much as the debt incurred in going to college. And each one of my alternatives provides real-life experience that will pay massive dividends for decades to come. A lot of people have strong opinions on this topic. I have meetings from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. all week, but I promise to be in the comments section as much as possible answering questions (if they are asked in a respectful manner). I hope we can engage in discussion on this
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