More F-22s? USAF-Led push gains pace
BY: William Matthews, Defense News
11/26/2007

Gordon England, U.S. deputy defense secretary, may want to cap the F-22 stealth fighter program at 183 planes, but it’s becoming increasingly clear the program will continue, probably beyond 200 aircraft.

Signs that the F-22's stock is rising include:

Congress: The 2008 Defense Appropriations Act says members of Congress "believe the Air Force should consider extending the current F-22 multiyear procurement contract."

Noting that the Air Force has $526 million in its planned 2009 budget to spend shutting down the F-22 production line, lawmakers suggest that "these funds could be redirected towards advance procurement items to support procurement of an additional 20 aircraft."

F-15 troubles: The case for more F-22s was bolstered Nov. 3 when the Air Force grounded its entire fleet of 676 F-15s after one of them broke apart during a training flight by a Missouri Air National Guard pilot.

F- Signs that the F-22's stock is rising include 22s are the next-generation replacements for F-15s, some of which date back to 1975. The crash prompted a half-dozen senators to write to England of their dismay over "the grounding of our entire F-15 fleet due to concerns over the structural integrity of the aircraft."

Better-armed enemies: In their letter, the senators warn of the increasing sophistication of warplanes being developed by potential adversaries.

They cite news reports of a recent agreement between India and Russia to cooperate on building a fifth-generation "stealth fighter capable of super-cruise flight and equipped with an advanced electronic scan radar system." The plane appears to be intended "to confront directly the F-22A Raptor," they said.

China, too, is developing a stealth fighter, the J-12, they warned.

Experts' analysis: The senators also demanded that England make public the findings of three studies the Pentagon commissioned on how many F-22s are needed. They said the studies conclude that "a far larger number than 183 Raptors will need to be procured."

The six were Sens. Orin Hatch and Robert Bennett, both Republicans of Utah; Sens. Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson, both Republicans of Georgia; Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.

For at least four of the lawmakers, there's a parochial interest in the F-22.

For Chambliss and Isakson, the plane's manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, is one of Georgia's largest employers. Meanwhile, Hatch and Bennett represent Hill Air Force Base, which per????s maintenance on F-22s and is Utah's "largest single-site employer."

"I don't think there's any doubt that there will be more than 183 F-22s," said Richard Aboulafia, director of aviation consulting at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Va. What is doubtful, though, is that the Air Force will get as many of the 381 it says it needs.

Individually, the cited reasons to buy more F-22s aren't especially compelling, Aboulafia said.

It will take Russia and India years of effort and billions of rubles and rupees to develop a rival to the F-22 — if they can, he said. As for the Chinese J-12, "Nothing about it is scary," he said.

If more F-15s fall out of the sky, that’s "a more compelling reason" to increase F-22 production, he said.

The F-22's real challenge is going to be its price and the U.S. military's budget for tactical aircraft. The Air Force now spends $3.1 billion a year to buy 20 F-22s annually.

But it will only be able to keep that up for a few more years. Then plans call for buying Joint Strike Fighters at a rate of 48 per year or more.

It would require a substantial increase in the Air Force's tactical air budget to accommodate both planes, Aboulafia said.

"And I don’t know anyone who regards procurement [spending] as a growth area" for the foreseeable future.

The Air Force will do well to get 40 or 50 additional F-22s, which would push the total to 223 or 233.