the comments on the match-up of the two are very to-the-point.
It's really a bad match-up for Federer.

Some points:

about 纳豆的弱点是在对大力平击球时失误就比较多. Not sure about
your 抖碗动作. I think it's because Rafa needs a bigger swing than
normal player -- this is the reason he can generate such extravagant
topspin. Fast ball takes his time away, especially on fast hard court.
Thus the error.

about 他这两年的DRAW都是很运气的. I disagree with you vehemently.
He really had a sweet draw last year. But see who are in his half
this year. Soderling, youzhny, Berdych and Djokovic. Youzhny and Berdych
are AKA Nadal killers for good reason. Very few ppl Nadal to go
into the final this year. It's like Fed said after the final he
improved so much. I am happy with everyone (trophy) I get before he
comes around and take them all ...

About 所以击败费最好的时机是8强以前. Federer never had trouble, let
along been beaten in early rounds of majors after he became FEDRER.
He was goofing around to save energy so he can show up in the later
stages.

There are too many X factors to predict how the table will turn between
the two.

1. Federer's serve.

Eearly this year Federer had the worst patch of service games of
his career. It started as early as AO and lasted till the Final
of Rome. In some of the sets his 1st % went as low as 30%.
Pat Cash pointed out there was something wrong with the position
of Federer's elbow that caused this.

Miraculously, this was fixed right before Wimby. And in the final,
Federer served a Sampras like match.

Question is how long this will last.

Nadal's serve OTOH has been improving consistently.

2. Nadal's health. The way Nadal moves on the court and the energy he
inserts into the game long cast doubts on the longevity of his career.

He recently said he had some trouble with his knees against fed in
the Wimbeldon final. Not a good news.

In comparison, Federer's game is very cost-effective.

On the otherhand. Federer is 26 and Nadal 21.

Who is going to start going down hill 1st, this is the questions.

3. The rise of the young generation.

Djokovic and Gasquet are the other two semi finalists of this Wimbeldon.
Djokovic is a tough opponent to any top player, including Federer.

Murray didn't play. Baghdatis reached quarterfinal again.

These young guns are going to challenge the top dogs (fed and rafa),
starting the US open this year.

It would be interesting to see who knocks out Federer or Nadal 1st
in the slams. The race has started.