美國有線電視台CNN2010年10月3日播出了訪談節目“FAREED ZAKARIA GPS”主持人法瑞德·扎卡利亞對中國總理溫家寶的專訪。

主持人： 您認為全球經濟，現在，是穩定且強勁？還是會進入一種所謂的“雙觸底”衰退的危險？尤其，美國會再次進入經濟衰退？

溫：嗯，客觀地講，我認為世界經濟正在復甦，但復甦的過程是一個緩慢而曲折的。人們可能不會在這個問題上有相同的看法，但我相信我們會汲取教訓。我希望美國經濟會快速復甦，因為，畢竟，美國經濟是世界上最大的。

我注意到最近奧巴馬總統的政策和所採取的措施，以及就包括增加一倍美國出口和在基礎建設發展上作大規模投資方案的說明。我覺得這些措施和做法是在沿着正確的軌道，朝着正確的方向前進。雖然晚了一點，但仍然是及時的。

這使我想起當我作出在中國推進大規模經濟刺激計劃的重大決定的時候的情景。那時，人們對這個政策也有不同的意見。但現在，進展表明，我們的經濟刺激計劃是成功的。

主持人：您的經濟刺激計劃，如果按占國內生產總值GDP的比例來算，相當於美國的經濟刺激計劃的10倍，這真是一個非同尋常的計劃。

是否有這麼個擔心，它已經產生了中國的房地產泡沫？由於政府投入了這麼多的資金，有沒有通貨膨脹的危險呢？這些經濟刺激的後果如何？再怎麼少，至少也還得有政府開支吧。

溫：從您所說，我認為您沒有充分了解我們的整個經濟刺激計劃。我想指出，我們的經濟刺激計劃有四個主要組成部分。
       首先是大規模的公共支出，結構性減稅和基礎設施的發展。
       第二個是在中國的調整和產業結構優化升級。
       第三是科技創新和新興產業的發展具有戰略意義。
       四是社會安全網的改善。 4萬億人民幣投資並不都是全部來自政府。
       公共財政只占1.18萬億美元的人民幣，其餘的將來自非公有制經濟和金融市場籌資。
       該經濟刺激計劃的實施，確保了穩定持續較快增長的中國經濟。
       它幫助維持中國的經濟發展在過去30年的良好勢頭，它幫助我們避免在中國現代化進程中因為一個嚴重的外部沖擊而造成重大波動。

同時，這個經濟刺激計劃對中國經濟的未來發展奠定了堅實的基礎。對您剛才的問題中提到的挑戰，我們很重視持高度警戒。
       我想講三點。

      首先，通貨膨脹在中國是有可能發生的。
       這就是為什麼我們制定了規劃以使得處理好保持經濟平穩與較快發展之間，結構調整和管理通脹預期之間的關系。這是中國經濟宏觀調控的核心。
       我的確為在中國通脹預期的管理擔憂。這是我一直很努力妥善管理很好，因為我相信腐敗和通貨膨脹將對國家的穩定產生不利影響。而這兩者都關繫到人民對政府的信任和支持。我是從這個角度來看中國的通貨膨脹問題的。

       其次，隨着經濟刺激計劃的實施，地方政府會有財政和金融的風險。一些地方政府有它們的融資管道。他們有一些債務。
       但是，這不是一個因金融危機的爆發而產生的新問題。相反，這些問題發生於上個世紀的80年代。

    現在，因各種地方政府的融資平台而累積的債務總額已經高達約7.6萬億美元的人民幣。
       而且，我可以說，這地方一級的債務，現在還處於一個我們能夠控制的范圍內。重要的是我們要妥善處理好此事，以確保這地方政府的債務不會給我們的公共財政金融帶來風險。
       中國的赤字預算的比例是低於國內生產總值GDP的百分之3。中國的總債務與國內生產總值的比率為百分之二十的范圍內。
       這就是說，其仍然是一個我們能夠控制的范圍。

       第三點是更重要的一點，就是現在我們所有的投資必須有利於我國經濟結構調整，而不是相反。這涉及到我們的長期發展前景，因此具有很高的重要性。

 主持人： 從金融危機中您得出什麼教訓？您對美國的宏觀經濟管理是否失去了信心？

       一個中國朋友曾對我說，他說：“我們就像在課堂上的學生，我們總是聽美國人教我們。”， 而現在我們抬起頭來，我們認為，“也許老師竟然也不知道他自己在說什麼。”。

 溫： 面對金融危機，任何一個對國家及整個人類負有責任感的人，都應從這次金融危機中吸取教訓。就我而言，我從這次金融危機得出的最大的教訓是，在管理國家事務時，重要的是要密切注意解決經濟中的結構性問題。

       中國的發展取得了巨大進步，贏得了世界的好評。然而，在最早認為我們的經濟發展缺乏平衡，協調和可持續性的人中，我也是其中之一。這次金融危機印證了我在這一點上的看法。一方面，我們要應對金融危機，另一方面，我們必須繼續解決我們自己的問題。而且，我們必須同時做好這兩方面的工作，這是一個非常艱難的。

---- 以上譯自Transcript of interview with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao

原文取自http://chinaelectionsblog.net/?p=10376

FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST, “FAREED ZAKARIA GPS”: Do you feel that the global economy is, at this point, stable and strong?  Or do you worry a lot that there is a danger of the so-called double dip, that the United States, in particular, could go back into a recession?

       PREMIER WEN JIABAO, CHINA (through translator):  Well, objectively speaking, I think the world economy is recovering, although the process of recovery is a slow and torturous one.  People may not have the same view on this matter, but I believe we will learn a lesson from the reality.  I hope that there will be a quick recovery of the U.S. economy, because, after all, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world.

       I have taken note of the recent policies and measures taken by President Obama, including the program of doubling the United States exports and the massive investment in infrastructural development.  I think these passes and measures are the ones on the right track, moving in the right direction.  Although they came a little bit late, they still came in time.

       This reminds me of the time when I took the big decision of advancing a massive stimulus package in China.  Back then, people had different views concerning this policy.  But now, the progress has shown that our stimulus package is a successful one.

       ZAKARIA:  Your stimulus package was 10 times larger, as a percentage of your GDP, than — than the U.S. one.  It was an extraordinary program.

       Is there a worry that it has — it has produced a bubble in China, in real estate? Are there dangers of inflation because the government spent so much money? And what happens now that that stimulus is going to wear off? There will be less and less government spending.

       WEN:  From what you said, I think you have not seen our stimulus package in its full or in its entirety.  I would like to say that our stimulus package has four key components.

       The first is massive public spending, structural tax cuts and infrastructural development.

       The second is the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in China.

       The third is scientific and technological innovation and the development of emerging industries with strategic significance.

       The fourth is the improvement of social safety net. The $4 trillion RMB Yuan investment does not all come from the government.

       Public finance only accounts for $1.18 trillion RMB Yuan and the rest will come from the non-public sector and fundraising from financial markets.

       The implementation of the stimulus package has insured the continuance of steady and relatively fast economic growth in China.

       It has helped maintain the good momentum of China’s economic development in the past 30 years and it has helped us avoid major fluctuations in the process of China’s modernization because of a severe external shock.

       At the same time, it has laid a solid foundation for future development of the Chinese economy.  We are on high alert against the challenge that you referred to in your question.

       Let me make three points. First, there is a possibility of inflation in China.

       That is why we have formulated the task of skillfully manage the relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development, structural adjustment and managing inflation expectations.  This is at the core of China’s macroeconomic control.

       I do have worry for the management of inflation expectations in China.  And that is something that I have been trying very hard to manage appropriately and well, because I believe corruption and inflation will have an adverse impact on stability of power in our country.  And these two both concern the trust and support of people in the government.  And this is the perspective that I see the issue of inflation in China.

       Second, with implementation of the stimulus package, there are fiscal and financial risks at the level of local governments.  We have some financing vehicles of local governments.  They have some debts.

       But this is not a new problem that took place after the break — outbreak of the financial crisis.  Rather, this already came into being back in the 1980s.

       Now, with the financing platforms of local governments in place, they have accumulated a total debt about $7.6 trillion RMB Yuan.

       And I can say that this debt, at the local level, is still within a range that we can manage.  But it is important that we appropriately handle this matter to ensure that the debts at local governments’ level will not bring about risks in our public finance and in the financial sector.

       The ratio of budget deficit in China’s total GDP is within 3 percent. The total debts in China versus GDP’s ratio is within 20 percent range.

       That is to say, it’s still in the range that we can manage.

       The third point is a more important one, that is, all our investment now must be conducive to our economic structural adjustment, not the contrary.  This concerns our long-term development prospects and therefore is of high importance.

       ZAKARIA: May I ask you what lesson you have drawn from the financial crisis? Have you lost faith in American macroeconomic management?

       A Chinese friend said to me, he said, “We were like the students in class and we would always listen to what the Americans would tell us.”  And now we look up, and we think, “Maybe the teacher actually didn’t know what he was talking about.”

       WEN: In the face of the financial crisis, any person who has a sense of responsibility towards the country, and towards the entire human race should learn lessons from the financial crisis. As far as I’m concerned, the biggest lesson that I have drawn from the financial crisis is that, in managing the affairs of a country, it’s important to pay close attention to addressing the structural problems in the economy.

       China has achieved enormous progress in its development, winning acclaim around the world. Yet, I was one of the first ones to argue that our economic development still lacks balance, coordination, and sustainability. This financial crisis has reinforced my view on this point. On the one hand, we must tackle the financial crisis; on the other, we must continue to address our own problems. And we must do these two tasks well at the same time, and this is a very difficult one.

Wen’s interview with Zakaria in two years. From CNN

Zakaria: We are now beginning the formal interview, just so everyone realizes.

Wen Jiabao: Before we begin, I would like to let you know that I will use the words from the bottom of my heart to answer your questions, which means that I will tell the truth to all your questions.

I always tell people that sometimes I may not tell what is on my mind, that as long as I speak out what is on my mind, the words are true.

I think you are now interviewing a statesman, and at the same time you are interviewing a statesman in his capacity as a common people.

I prefer dialogue to long-winded speeches, so you can always interrupt me and raise your questions. That would certainly make our dialogue more lively.

Zakaria: I look forward to the chance for this dialogue, and I begin by thanking you for giving us the opportunity and the honor. The first thing I have to ask you, I think is on many people’s minds. What do you think of the current financial crisis affecting the United States, and does it make you think that the American model has many flaws in it that we are just recognizing now?

Wen Jiabao: I took office as the Chinese premier six years ago, and before then I was serving as the vice premier of the country. When I was the vice premier, I experienced another financial crisis but in Asia. And in wake of the Asian financial crisis, China adopted a proactive fiscal policy and decided not to devalue the RMB, the Chinese currency, but doing so we managed to overcome the difficulties. But now the problems in the United States started with the subprime crisis and later on, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were involved in the problems, and the Lehman Brothers was in trouble, Merrill Lynch was in trouble, the AIG was in trouble, and such large investment banking companies and insurance companies all encountered systematic problems.