美国有线电视台CNN2010年10月3日播出了访谈节目“FAREED ZAKARIA GPS”主持人法瑞德·扎卡利亚对中国总理温家宝的专访。

主持人： 您认为全球经济，现在，是稳定且强劲？还是会进入一种所谓的“双触底”衰退的危险？尤其，美国会再次进入经济衰退？

温：嗯，客观地讲，我认为世界经济正在复苏，但复苏的过程是一个缓慢而曲折的。人们可能不会在这个问题上有相同的看法，但我相信我们会汲取教训。我希望美国经济会快速复苏，因为，毕竟，美国经济是世界上最大的。

我注意到最近奥巴马总统的政策和所采取的措施，以及就包括增加一倍美国出口和在基础建设发展上作大规模投资方案的说明。我觉得这些措施和做法是在沿着正确的轨道，朝着正确的方向前进。虽然晚了一点，但仍然是及时的。

这使我想起当我作出在中国推进大规模经济刺激计划的重大决定的时候的情景。那时，人们对这个政策也有不同的意见。但现在，进展表明，我们的经济刺激计划是成功的。

主持人：您的经济刺激计划，如果按占国内生产总值GDP的比例来算，相当于美国的经济刺激计划的10倍，这真是一个非同寻常的计划。

是否有这么个担心，它已经产生了中国的房地产泡沫？由于政府投入了这么多的资金，有没有通货膨胀的危险呢？这些经济刺激的后果如何？再怎么少，至少也还得有政府开支吧。

温：从您所说，我认为您没有充分了解我们的整个经济刺激计划。我想指出，我们的经济刺激计划有四个主要组成部分。
       首先是大规模的公共支出，结构性减税和基础设施的发展。
       第二个是在中国的调整和产业结构优化升级。
       第三是科技创新和新兴产业的发展具有战略意义。
       四是社会安全网的改善。 4万亿人民币投资并不都是全部来自政府。
       公共财政只占1.18万亿美元的人民币，其余的将来自非公有制经济和金融市场筹资。
       该经济刺激计划的实施，确保了稳定持续较快增长的中国经济。
       它帮助维持中国的经济发展在过去30年的良好势头，它帮助我们避免在中国现代化进程中因为一个严重的外部冲击而造成重大波动。

同时，这个经济刺激计划对中国经济的未来发展奠定了坚实的基础。对您刚才的问题中提到的挑战，我们很重视持高度警戒。
       我想讲三点。

      首先，通货膨胀在中国是有可能发生的。
       这就是为什么我们制定了规划以使得处理好保持经济平稳与较快发展之间，结构调整和管理通胀预期之间的关系。这是中国经济宏观调控的核心。
       我的确为在中国通胀预期的管理担忧。这是我一直很努力妥善管理很好，因为我相信腐败和通货膨胀将对国家的稳定产生不利影响。而这两者都关系到人民对政府的信任和支持。我是从这个角度来看中国的通货膨胀问题的。

       其次，随着经济刺激计划的实施，地方政府会有财政和金融的风险。一些地方政府有它们的融资管道。他们有一些债务。
       但是，这不是一个因金融危机的爆发而产生的新问题。相反，这些问题发生于上个世纪的80年代。

    现在，因各种地方政府的融资平台而累积的债务总额已经高达约7.6万亿美元的人民币。
       而且，我可以说，这地方一级的债务，现在还处于一个我们能够控制的范围内。重要的是我们要妥善处理好此事，以确保这地方政府的债务不会给我们的公共财政金融带来风险。
       中国的赤字预算的比例是低于国内生产总值GDP的百分之3。中国的总债务与国内生产总值的比率为百分之二十的范围内。
       这就是说，其仍然是一个我们能够控制的范围。

       第三点是更重要的一点，就是现在我们所有的投资必须有利于我国经济结构调整，而不是相反。这涉及到我们的长期发展前景，因此具有很高的重要性。

 主持人： 从金融危机中您得出什么教训？您对美国的宏观经济管理是否失去了信心？

       一个中国朋友曾对我说，他说：“我们就像在课堂上的学生，我们总是听美国人教我们。”， 而现在我们抬起头来，我们认为，“也许老师竟然也不知道他自己在说什么。”。

 温： 面对金融危机，任何一个对国家及整个人类负有责任感的人，都应从这次金融危机中吸取教训。就我而言，我从这次金融危机得出的最大的教训是，在管理国家事务时，重要的是要密切注意解决经济中的结构性问题。

       中国的发展取得了巨大进步，赢得了世界的好评。然而，在最早认为我们的经济发展缺乏平衡，协调和可持续性的人中，我也是其中之一。这次金融危机印证了我在这一点上的看法。一方面，我们要应对金融危机，另一方面，我们必须继续解决我们自己的问题。而且，我们必须同时做好这两方面的工作，这是一个非常艰难的。

---- 以上译自Transcript of interview with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao

原文取自http://chinaelectionsblog.net/?p=10376

FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST, “FAREED ZAKARIA GPS”: Do you feel that the global economy is, at this point, stable and strong?  Or do you worry a lot that there is a danger of the so-called double dip, that the United States, in particular, could go back into a recession?

       PREMIER WEN JIABAO, CHINA (through translator):  Well, objectively speaking, I think the world economy is recovering, although the process of recovery is a slow and torturous one.  People may not have the same view on this matter, but I believe we will learn a lesson from the reality.  I hope that there will be a quick recovery of the U.S. economy, because, after all, the U.S. economy is the largest in the world.

       I have taken note of the recent policies and measures taken by President Obama, including the program of doubling the United States exports and the massive investment in infrastructural development.  I think these passes and measures are the ones on the right track, moving in the right direction.  Although they came a little bit late, they still came in time.

       This reminds me of the time when I took the big decision of advancing a massive stimulus package in China.  Back then, people had different views concerning this policy.  But now, the progress has shown that our stimulus package is a successful one.

       ZAKARIA:  Your stimulus package was 10 times larger, as a percentage of your GDP, than — than the U.S. one.  It was an extraordinary program.

       Is there a worry that it has — it has produced a bubble in China, in real estate? Are there dangers of inflation because the government spent so much money? And what happens now that that stimulus is going to wear off? There will be less and less government spending.

       WEN:  From what you said, I think you have not seen our stimulus package in its full or in its entirety.  I would like to say that our stimulus package has four key components.

       The first is massive public spending, structural tax cuts and infrastructural development.

       The second is the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure in China.

       The third is scientific and technological innovation and the development of emerging industries with strategic significance.

       The fourth is the improvement of social safety net. The $4 trillion RMB Yuan investment does not all come from the government.

       Public finance only accounts for $1.18 trillion RMB Yuan and the rest will come from the non-public sector and fundraising from financial markets.

       The implementation of the stimulus package has insured the continuance of steady and relatively fast economic growth in China.

       It has helped maintain the good momentum of China’s economic development in the past 30 years and it has helped us avoid major fluctuations in the process of China’s modernization because of a severe external shock.

       At the same time, it has laid a solid foundation for future development of the Chinese economy.  We are on high alert against the challenge that you referred to in your question.

       Let me make three points. First, there is a possibility of inflation in China.

       That is why we have formulated the task of skillfully manage the relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development, structural adjustment and managing inflation expectations.  This is at the core of China’s macroeconomic control.

       I do have worry for the management of inflation expectations in China.  And that is something that I have been trying very hard to manage appropriately and well, because I believe corruption and inflation will have an adverse impact on stability of power in our country.  And these two both concern the trust and support of people in the government.  And this is the perspective that I see the issue of inflation in China.

       Second, with implementation of the stimulus package, there are fiscal and financial risks at the level of local governments.  We have some financing vehicles of local governments.  They have some debts.

       But this is not a new problem that took place after the break — outbreak of the financial crisis.  Rather, this already came into being back in the 1980s.

       Now, with the financing platforms of local governments in place, they have accumulated a total debt about $7.6 trillion RMB Yuan.

       And I can say that this debt, at the local level, is still within a range that we can manage.  But it is important that we appropriately handle this matter to ensure that the debts at local governments’ level will not bring about risks in our public finance and in the financial sector.

       The ratio of budget deficit in China’s total GDP is within 3 percent. The total debts in China versus GDP’s ratio is within 20 percent range.

       That is to say, it’s still in the range that we can manage.

       The third point is a more important one, that is, all our investment now must be conducive to our economic structural adjustment, not the contrary.  This concerns our long-term development prospects and therefore is of high importance.

       ZAKARIA: May I ask you what lesson you have drawn from the financial crisis? Have you lost faith in American macroeconomic management?

       A Chinese friend said to me, he said, “We were like the students in class and we would always listen to what the Americans would tell us.”  And now we look up, and we think, “Maybe the teacher actually didn’t know what he was talking about.”

       WEN: In the face of the financial crisis, any person who has a sense of responsibility towards the country, and towards the entire human race should learn lessons from the financial crisis. As far as I’m concerned, the biggest lesson that I have drawn from the financial crisis is that, in managing the affairs of a country, it’s important to pay close attention to addressing the structural problems in the economy.

       China has achieved enormous progress in its development, winning acclaim around the world. Yet, I was one of the first ones to argue that our economic development still lacks balance, coordination, and sustainability. This financial crisis has reinforced my view on this point. On the one hand, we must tackle the financial crisis; on the other, we must continue to address our own problems. And we must do these two tasks well at the same time, and this is a very difficult one.

Wen’s interview with Zakaria in two years. From CNN

Zakaria: We are now beginning the formal interview, just so everyone realizes.

Wen Jiabao: Before we begin, I would like to let you know that I will use the words from the bottom of my heart to answer your questions, which means that I will tell the truth to all your questions.

I always tell people that sometimes I may not tell what is on my mind, that as long as I speak out what is on my mind, the words are true.

I think you are now interviewing a statesman, and at the same time you are interviewing a statesman in his capacity as a common people.

I prefer dialogue to long-winded speeches, so you can always interrupt me and raise your questions. That would certainly make our dialogue more lively.

Zakaria: I look forward to the chance for this dialogue, and I begin by thanking you for giving us the opportunity and the honor. The first thing I have to ask you, I think is on many people’s minds. What do you think of the current financial crisis affecting the United States, and does it make you think that the American model has many flaws in it that we are just recognizing now?

Wen Jiabao: I took office as the Chinese premier six years ago, and before then I was serving as the vice premier of the country. When I was the vice premier, I experienced another financial crisis but in Asia. And in wake of the Asian financial crisis, China adopted a proactive fiscal policy and decided not to devalue the RMB, the Chinese currency, but doing so we managed to overcome the difficulties. But now the problems in the United States started with the subprime crisis and later on, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were involved in the problems, and the Lehman Brothers was in trouble, Merrill Lynch was in trouble, the AIG was in trouble, and such large investment banking companies and insurance companies all encountered systematic problems.