以下是《Money》2014年5月号中一篇文章的摘录。主要摘录了牛市转变为熊市的一些指标。

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Are Stocks Overpriced? - A Smart Bull and a Smart Bear Answer the Big Question
Interview by Kim Clark

Bull: Richard Bernstein [1958-], CEO, Richard Bernstein Advisors; Named to Institutional All-American Research Team 18 Times
Bear: James Montier, Member, Asset Allocation Team, GMO; Author of 4 investing books including "The Little Book of the Behavioral Investing."

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Bull Market:
A rule of thumb of indicator of a bull market is that the price/earnings multiple and the inflation rate should add up to less than 20.

Rising rates, a bearish sign; an unanticipated improvement in the economy, a bullish sign.

When many people believe there's no risk in equities, the bull market is almost over.

In the kiss of death of a bull market, the yield curve inverts, meaning that long-term rates drop below short-term rates. In other words, people are so desperate to lock in long-term rates that they pay more for them than for short-term rates.
Watching for an inverted yield curve will keep you out of trouble. That simple little indicator suggests the bond markets are beginning to expect significantly weaker growth. Generally this occurs before the stock market begins to anticipate slower growth.

A classic sign of a bubble is increased use of borrowed money to buy stocks.

Other bubble indicator is, when sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bullish to the point where people jettison diversification, that is very, very worrisome.

The notion that the Fed is the only reason the stock market is up is what people claim during the early stages of every bull market. The time to worry is when the Fed inflates asset prices too much and the characteristics of a bubble emerge.