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私人拥枪能否有效地自我防卫?
送交者: 孟什维克 2011年01月13日20:20:45 于 [五 味 斋] 发送悄悄话

Sarah Brady, the wife of former Reagan White House Press Secretary James
Brady, who was struck in the head by a bullet during an assassination attempt
on the president in 1981, appears in a new video in which she pays tribute
to the victims of the tragedy in Tucson and urges Americans to make a push
for stricter gun control laws.
After the shooting of James Brady, the Bradys became outspoken gun control
proponents, providing the backing to an eponymous Handgun Violence Prevention
Act, which set requirements for background checks before purchasing a gun....
...
In an interview with Jim and Sarah Brady on CNN Wednesday, Sarah Brady explained
that the lack of action on gun control was matter of lawmakers' courage.
(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/13/sarah-brady-james-brady-arizona_n_808541.
html)


美国的枪枝管制,是个非常宽频的问题。实施枪枝管制所产生的实际效应,也必然
需要较长时间才能显示出来。解决美国的枪枝泛滥问题,本质上是改变历史传统,
确立一种非暴力的文明价值观
和一项长治久安的国策。

枪枝管制和禁枪问题的宽频性质,决定了它本身必然是一个长期的历史过程 ──
从观念意识到行为模式到国家律法。而阻碍这个国家文明进程的根本力量来自两个
方面:一个是个人自由神圣不可侵犯的观念,再一个是认为枪枝泛滥的既成现实无
法改变。虽然这两种根本力量都站不住脚,但它们却又非常强大而顽固,所以我们
还是有必要对其在理性上予以简明的澄清 ── 首先个人自由神圣不可侵犯从来都
是有条件的,法律本身就是对自由的约束;另外改变积习和现状,永远都是艰难的、
痛苦和旷日持久的,
如果美国还有前途、还有生命力,那么非理性和暴力,终究会
被文明和理性所取代。

According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who want gun laws to be
stricter fell from 78 percent in 1990 to 62 percent in 1995. By 2007, it
was down to 51 percent. And last year it was just 44 percent in Gallup polling.

According to a new CBS News poll released yesterday, 47 percent now support
stricter gun laws (see graphic at left). That is a small spike from a March
2010 CBS News poll when 40 percent said the same thing, but below levels
of 2002 when 56 percent supported tighter gun control, and in 1994 when stricter
gun control had 59 percent support. That all means there is a much smaller
upside for a lawmaker who might make a case for stricter gun control laws.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20028226-503544.html

http://i.i.com.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/2011/01/11/pie_chart_GunControl_v1.jpg

International/Comparative Statistics
The U.S. has the highest rate of firearm deaths among 25 high-income nations.
Another study concluded that among 36 high-income and upper-middle-income
countries, the U.S. has the highest overall gun mortality rate.
The overall firearm-related death rate among U.S. children under the age
of 15 is nearly 12 times higher than that among children in 25 other industrialized
nations combined.
The firearm-related suicide rate for children between the ages of 5 and
14 years old in the United States is nearly 11 times higher than that in
25 other developed countries.
Americans own far more civilian firearms ━ particularly handguns ━ than
people in other industrialized nations and U.S. gun laws are among the most
lax in the world.
(http://www.lcav.org/statistics-polling/gun_violence_statistics.asp)

In 1998 (the most recent year for which this data has been compiled), handguns
murdered:
373 people in Germany
151 people in Canada
57 people in Australia
19 people in Japan
54 people in England and Wales, and
11,789 people in the United States (suicides not included)
(http://twocrabs.blogs.com/2crabs/2007/04/gun_violence_st.html)


有一种很流行的观点,认为枪枝本身并不是问题,而是行凶的人有问题,这似乎合
理地把枪枝和罪犯隔离、分解成了两个毫无关系的命题。但事实上对于枪杀血案而
言,如果孤立来看,枪枝和罪犯各自本身都不是问题 ── 枪杀血案的实质,是有
问题的人拥有有问题的枪,所以两者是无法分而论之。或者说,有问题的人拥有枪
枝,这本身就是个问题,这不仅仅是有问题的人本身的问题。更严谨一点来讲,从
枪杀血案存在事实的角度看,有问题的人如果没有枪枝,他并不构成生命危害,因
此在广义上也不能称之为“有问题的人”。在枪枝管制的语境下,枪枝和犯罪,不
是两个毫无关连的概念,事实上没有枪枝就没有犯罪,因为没有枪枝,很多犯罪只
能停留在臆想的状态。

Us homicides by weapon:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ushomicidesbyweapon.svg



美国的枪杀血案都是突发事件,但从来都不是偶然事件,而是持续性必然发生的,
无论过去、现在或未来都是如此。枪杀血案的偶然性,仅仅在于它发生的具体时间、
地点和可能会发生在谁的身上。

依靠暴力是无法获得自由和人身安全的,暴力只能感召暴力,这是业力因果使然。
下面我们来看一看有关资料。

Guns in the Home:
A gun kept in the home is 22 times more likely to be used in an unintentional
shooting, a criminal assault or homicide, or an attempted or completed suicide
than to be used to injure or kill in self-defense.
(Kellermann, AL et al.,
"Injuries and Deaths Due to Firearms in the Home." The Journal of Truama,
Infection, and Critical Care, Vol. 45, No. 2, August 1998.)
By a margin of 5 to 1, Americans feel less safe rather than safer
as a more people in their community begin to carry guns.
(Hemenway, David;
Azrael, Deborah; Miller, Matthew. "U.S National Attitudes Concerning Gun
Carrying." Injury Prevention.2001; 7:282-285.)
(http://www.wagv.org/gun-violence.php)

Dangers of Gun Use for Self-Defense:
Using a gun in self-defense is no more likely to reduce the chance of being
injured during a crime than various other forms of protective action.
Of the 13,636 Americans who were murdered in 2009, only 215 were killed
by firearms (165 by handguns) in homicides by private citizens that law
enforcement determined were justifiable.
A study reviewing surveys of gun use in the U.S. determined that most self-reported
self-defense gun uses may well be illegal and against the interests of society.
http://www.lcav.org/statistics-polling/gun_violence_statistics.asp#f49


Self-protection:
。。。。。。
The findings of the McDowall's study for the American Journal of Public
Health contrast with the findings of a 1993 study by Gary Kleck, who finds
that as many as 2.45 million crimes are thwarted each year in the United
States, and in most cases, the potential victim never fires a shot in these
cases where firearms are used constructively for self-protection. The results
of the Kleck studies have been cited many times in scholarly and popular
media.
McDowall cites methodological issues with the Kleck studies, claiming that
Kleck used a very small sample size and did not confine self-defense to
attempted victimizations where physical attacks had already commenced. The
former criticism, however, is inaccurate ─ Kleck's survey with Marc Gertz
in fact used the largest sample size of any survey that ever asked respondents
about defensive gun use ─ 4,977 cases, far more than is typical in national
surveys.A study of gun use in the 1990s, by David Hemenway at the Harvard
Injury Control Research Center, found that criminal use of guns is far more
common than self-defense use of guns. By the Kleck study, however, most
successful preventions of victimizations are accomplished without a shot
being fired, which are not counted as a self-defense firearm usage by either
the Hemenway or McDowall studies.
Hemenway, however, also argues that the
Kleck figure is inconsistent with other known statistics for crime, citing
that Kleck's figures apparently show that guns are many times more often
used for self-defense in burglaries, than there are incidents of bulgaries
of properties containing gun owners with awake occupants. Hemenway concludes
that under reasonable assumptions of random errors in sampling, because
of the rarity of the event, the 2.5 million figure should be considered
only as the top end of a 0-2.5 million confidence interval, suggesting a
highly unreliable result that is likely a great overestimate, with the true
figure 10 times, or more, less.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States)




自利、自私与禁枪、拥枪及其它
http://bbs.creaders.net/life/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=546260

热爱生命还是热爱自由? -- 再谈禁枪
http://bbs.creaders.net/life/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=545978

自由+人权+平等 = 让子弹飞?
http://bbs.creaders.net/life/bbsviewer.php?trd_id=545699


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